At journalist Josh Marshall's blog, I found this link to the Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004
[Note: apparently, you have to page down to see this; anyone know how to shrink the gif?]
Dark blue is "safe," light blue is "weak" and white surrounded by light blue is "barely" Kerry. Red is for Bush.
Safe Kerry (147)
Weak Kerry (48)
Barely Kerry (95)
Barely Bush (51)
Weak Bush (49)
Safe Bush (144)
If these numbers hold, Kerry wins 290-244. I don't know why a few electoral votes are missing.
If Florida goes to Bush, he wins 271-263. Then again, switch just Wisconsin and Kerry wins 273-261.
Thus, it's close.
The Election Projection page (produced by a Bush supporter) had it Kerry 316, Bush 222 on June 12.
So far as I can tell, Larry Sabato still doesn't have his map or predictions available.