Monday, May 12, 2008

Duck doings

Today, at the Duck of Minerva, I blogged "New 'crimes against humanity'?" The piece considers the claims various political figures have tossed about concerning biofuel production. I also note some additional uses of this phrase in contemporary political debates.

On May 6, I blogged "The taboo," which is about the lack of debate concerning Israeli nuclear weapons -- especially in the US. Why is OK to talk of obliterating Iran, but not OK to talk about Israel's arsenal? [Note: this post originally appeared here, but I'm noting the Duck cross-posting because it was mentioned in a Chronicle of Higher Education footnoted from academic blogs post.]

Finally, May 2, I posted "Power outage" about the apparent decline in home runs in baseball following the most recent crackdowns against steroid use by players. Since posting some early season data, the major league HR rate has risen to 40.7 at bats per homer (from 41.8 in April). That's still down significantly from the rate during the rest of the aughts.


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Friday, February 29, 2008

Ducking out

Lately, at the Duck of Minerva, I've blogged about some topics that might be of interest to my regular readers:

  • Yesterday, February 28: "Sage advice from the Prez." President Bush offered Turkey some advice about its military "incursion" in Iraq.

  • February 20, I blogged "Cuba: El Tiante's pitch." The former pitcher Luis Tiant offers his view of the Cuban embargo.

  • February 14, I wrote "PTL returns," which is about the latest Indiana Jones movie, forthcoming in May.


Enjoy.


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Monday, December 17, 2007

Highly paid guinea pigs

Occasionally, the email announcement circulated daily at my university includes a call for volunteers to participate in various kinds of medical studies. Apparently, students and others in need of quick cash can make money serving as human guinea pigs.

For this reason, I'm not at all surprised that major league baseball players started using steroids in large numbers. Literally millions of dollars are at stake -- especially if the drugs enhance performance, as they reportedly do.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel of December 15 examined the statistics -- and paydays -- of the numerous baseball players named as steroid users in the Mitchell Report.
More than one in three players - 33 in total - immediately improved in the first season compared with their career averages.

The list of 27 hitters and 19 pitchers who allegedly "juiced" and raised their statistical performances includes stars such as Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Jason Giambi....

The Journal Sentinel looked at a select group of all stars, named in the report, including Jason Giambi and Pettitte, to analyze the impact on their contracts.

The other all stars were catcher Paul Lo Duca; second baseman Roberts; shortstop Miguel Tejada; third baseman Troy Glaus; outfielders Bonds, Matthews and Gary Sheffield; and pitchers Clemens and closer Eric Gagne, who just signed a $10 million one-year contract to play for the Brewers.

According to the salary analysis, the players were given a collective raise of more than $25 million by the time of their next contract. The raises include signing bonuses paid in the first year of the new deal.
For my numerous past blog posts about this topic, just click on the labels below.


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Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Quacks

As previously announced, I have been posting international relations material at the Duck of Minerva group blog:

Tonight, I posted "Iran, the IAEA and the US."

Thursday, November 1, I posted "Forced assignments." It discusses the Iraq-related revolt of the diplomats at the Department of State.

Friday, October 26, I posted a "Link roundup." it discusses some interesting reading from around the web. Go there and you'll find links to noteworthy posts or articles about Iran, Iraq, Syria and baseball.

On Tuesday, October 23, I posted "O Captain! my Captain!" The post is about a recent newspaper article written by 12 former US Army Captains who are unhappy about the war in Iraq.

October 21, a Sunday, I posted "Escalation: Turkey enters the war?" Yes, it is about Iraqi Kurdistan and its relations with neighboring Turkey.


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Saturday, September 22, 2007

Steroids research

Professor Roger Tobin has a new paper (pdf warning) soon to be published about the effects of steroid use on home run rates. He estimates that even a modest increase in muscle mass can have a substantial effect on HR rate.

Hat tip: Alan Nathan.

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Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Quacks at the Duck

Earlier today, I blogged "Neorealism and hypocrisy 101" over at the Duck of Minerva. The post is about my latest journal article, which is now available. As the title suggests, I take neorealists to task for their apparent academic hypocrisy.

Last Friday, August 31, I blogged "War with Iran?" The post focuses on a new study produced in Britain about US capability to wage war on Iran without major military preparations -- or public debate.

Wednesday the 29th, I posted "Jacksonian baseball." The piece discusses a new study finding that southern white baseball pitchers like Senator Jim Bunning are more likely to hit a batter when they feel their "honor" has been threatened in the context of the game. They are like Walter Russell Mead's foreign policy Jacksonians.


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Friday, August 31, 2007

fashionista policía


The Fashion Police are real, and they could be coming after your favorite baseball manager. Wednesday, during the 1st inning of a Red Sox-Yankee game, Boston manager Terry Francona was trying to decide whether his counterpart Joe Torre might order a bunt -- or perhaps a steal. The dangerous Derek Jeter had just hit a one out double.

Then, the unthinkable happened:
A security agent for Major League Baseball came into the Boston dugout and asked Francona if he was wearing his uniform top underneath his pullover fleece. Francona angrily showed the jersey top to the agent.

"I'm sure he was instructed," said Francona. "The timing was incredible. Unless this guy can put on a bunt play or something, he's got to stay ... out of the dugout. I've never seen anything like this before in my life. In the middle of the game, you have the fashion police. This is incredible. He made me show it. I was sort of in a hurry, because I thought Jeter was going to steal third. I was trying to go do my job."
As with so many personal stories in life, this one quickly led to Francona divulging too much private information in the public sphere:
"I don't want to get too personal. There are times when I get cold," Francona said. "There are times when I don't want to be tucked in. ... I don't want to get into sob stories, but all the stuff I wear underneath, I feel cooped up. I have two pair of tights. I get a little claustrophobic."
Is it any wonder that the Yanks swept the Red Sox and gained 3 games in the standings this week?

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Monday, August 13, 2007

Transactions

Rove waves good-bye.

The Bush organization administration has "decided to make a change." Today, former starting righty pitcher Karl Rove resigned from the team. CNN reports:
Karl Rove, perhaps the most powerful White House aide in recent history, called it quits Monday, provoking some to declare a symbolic end to the presidency of George W. Bush.

Known as "Bush's brain" by critics and "the architect" by Bush himself, Rove announced his resignation during a low point in the administration, with Democrats having taken control of Congress and after Bush's immigration and Social Security plans failed.

"This is the end of the Bush presidency, absolutely," said Wayne Slater co-author of a book on Rove titled "The Architect."
To fill Rove's roster spot, the Bush team has turned to former MVP and Hall of Fame infielder Cal Ripken. Voice of America:
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has named retired baseball great Cal Ripken Jr. to be a U.S. public diplomacy special envoy. Ripken, inducted into the baseball Hall of Fame last month, will begin the non-paying diplomatic role with a trip to China in October.
Ripken denied that he would be taking Rove's place on the team: "This is not a political statement for me necessarily," he said. "This is about the kids and planning you know, using baseball for good reasons."

Is Cal the President's new brain?

Photos from whitehouse.gov

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Tuesday, August 07, 2007

756


Baseball has a new home run king. A few minutes ago, Barry Bonds pulled a 3-2 pitch off Washington National pitcher Mike Bacsik into the right field stands.

I also saw Aaron hit #714 on April 8, 1974, and am glad I saw Bonds hit #756.

However, my viewing the famous dinger does not mean that I think that this is a good thing for baseball.

In fact, as I've expressed before, I'm quite ambivalent about the home run record.


Photo courtesy MacArthur fellows trip to Cuba.

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Tuesday, July 31, 2007

SABR

I was out of town for several days last week attending the annual national conference for the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR). I went to a number of interesting panels -- one of the best was by Dave Smith of Retrosheet -- and the ballgame on Friday night. It was my first visit to the new Busch stadium.

Though you might not have predicted it based upon my scholarly writing, I hung around with members of the Statistical Analysis crowd and mostly attended their panels and looked at their posters. Many in that group are academics -- like David Kaplan of Wisconsin -- but many others are not. I also attended a number of other scientific panels.

The most entertaining and enlightening talk was delivered by Dr. Mike Marshall, a former Cy Young winning pitcher who has very strong theories about how to prevent pitching injuries. He wants to completely revamp pitching motions.

Aaron Gleeman's more colorful recap of the convention is here (including a picture of my friend Neal Traven. I don't know Gleeman, but many of his friends are prominent SABR-types and I saw many of the people included in his photos.


Note: My apologies to Paul for visiting St. Louis and not giving an advance heads-up.


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Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Arts and leisure

Sunday, I saw Sicko, which is both entertaining and eye-opening. If you haven't been paying attention, or know the film only by the associated activism, then you might not realize that this latest Michael Moore movie is NOT about the 45 to 50 million Americans who lack health insurance.

Rather, it is about the quarter billion Americans who have health care -- and pay too much, receive too little, and are incredibly vulnerable to the whims of the marketplace.

Much of the film, in fact, is about the comparatively superior health insurance systems offered in Canada, the United Kingdom, France and Cuba (!).

I also watched the Venus DVD this week (thumbs up) and parts of the major league and AAA All-Star baseball games. I'm not a big fan of the All-star break, but the Ichiro inside-the-park homer was exciting and the 9th inning held my interest (despite all the walks).

Unfortunately, I missed the Futures game this year...it occurred while I was in the theater for Sicko.


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Wednesday, June 13, 2007

College baseball fever

"Omaha is going to be amazing," senior Skylar Meade said.
While it sounds like Meade doesn't get out much, he's reflecting University of Louisville's excitement at its first trip to the College World Series.

The tournament in Omaha fields only eight teams and Louisville's RPI rating is 44. Ordinarily, that would make Louisville the Cinderella of this tournament. However, some other underdog participants include Mississippi State (25), Cal State Irvine (30), Cal State Fullerton (32), and Oregon State (34).

Try to imagine an NCAA hoops tournaments with an elite 8 including a seven seed, two eight seeds, a nine, and an eleven!

Louisville plays top-rated Rice in the first round Friday. Other favorite teams are North Carolina (4) and Arizona State (5). Those teams are the equivalent of two top and one second seed in basketball terms. If Louisville and UNC both win (or both lose), they will play each other on Sunday. Two losses and a team is eliminated.

Last weekend, Louisville managed to slam long-time power Oklahoma State 2 games out of 3 in the Super Regional games. The team lost the middle game by only one run in extra innings. Still, the big excitement of the Series involved a potential first amendment issue -- a reporter working for the local newspaper was evicted from the stadium for live blogging the game from the press box.


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Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Beer me?

I'm giving serious thought to stealing this tag (and the accompanying icon):
If you like this post, buy the authors a refreshing beer.
Apparently, eleven readers clicked the paypal link and the author drank higher quality beer at that night's ballgame.

Hmmm. I'm likely to see another minor league game in the next couple of days...

I've never asked my readers for cash, but this is purpose-driven, right?


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Friday, May 18, 2007

Get more blog

As I previously mentioned, my blogging this week has been as a guest at Lawyers, Gun$ and Money. That gig will run through May 27, a bit longer than I originally mentioned.

Today, I posted "Loving the Yankee hating," which is a baseball post about the NY Yankees.

Wednesday, May 16, I posted "Nation-building, 2007." It is about the public relations image of "evil" states.

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Monday, May 07, 2007

Damn Yankees

Don't you love it when the best show on TV, "Baseball Tonight," spends long stretches discussing "what's wrong with the Yankees"?

Variants tonight: What's wrong with Johnny Damon? What's wrong with Mariano Rivera?

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Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Sports break

Twenty-four hours from now, I'll be glued to the TV watching Kansas play Southern Illinois in college hoops. I picked KU to win the entire tournament in several pools and hope they move on to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2004.

Rock chalk, Jayhawk!

Meanwhile, the Original Bitnet Fantasy Baseball League is conducting its pre-season draft. We pick a couple of guys each day via updated rankings. My Louisville Sluggers made several trades and cut to 12 players, so the team is much younger than it used to be.

I'll be waiting for guys like Daric Barton (#67), Billy Butler (#25), Adam Jones (#28), Tim Lincecum (#11), James Loney (#44), and Troy Tulowitzki (#15) to blossom as major leaguers. Those ratings denote Baseball America's rating of those prospects in 2007.

Three of the youngsters have yet to appear in a major league game. Did I mention this is a long-term keeper league with 23 other owners?

I also kept "veteran" Jeremy Hermida (#4 on the 2006 list).

Oh, and I retained Josh Beckett, Edwin Encarnacion, Rich Harden, Rich Hill, Derek Jeter, Jose Lopez, Jim Thome

Also drafted so far? Mike Jacobs, David DeJesus and Claudio Vargas.

I know that no one cares, but this helps me remember my roster down the road. Feel free to evaluate any of the players in the comments.


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Saturday, October 07, 2006

Yankees lose!

Last Sunday, Scott Lemieux wrote:
Could the Tigers win one goddamned game against the Royals? Yeesh. The first round is just going to be a massacre.
In comments there, I was more hopeful:
I'm a full-blooded Yankee-hater myself and I think it's premature to count out the Tigers.

Anything can happen in a short series.

Who among us thought the Angels had much of a chance versus the Yanks in 2002?

Who thought KC had much of a chance vs. the Tigers last week? This is from the game preview KC-Detroit, Sunday, September 24: "The Tigers are 13-1 against the Royals, outscoring them 109-52 in the season series."
Just as I predicted, by the way, KC went exactly 62-100 on the year.

So, despite the fact that I expected my favorite team to lose 100 games, and they lost 100 games, there's still something to celebrate.

Yankees lose!


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Sunday, September 10, 2006

Are the Royals fixed?

I wrote a long post about "fixing" the KC Royals on June 3. At the time, including the loss suffered while I completed the entry, my favorite team's record stood at 13-40.

Going into today's game against Boston, the Royals record stands at 54-89. Instead of becoming one of the all-time worst teams in baseball history, the Royals since early June have been merely subpar at 41-49. If the team can win 9 of its remaining 19 games, it will finish with fewer than 100 losses for the first time in several years. That certainly seemed all but impossible on June 3.

What happened? Are the Royals "fixed"?

That day, the Royals recalled 3B Mark Teahan from Omaha. He had been killing the baseball down on the farm and I'm glad to report that he also hit very well in KC over the last few months of the season. His season ended a few days ago (the day before his 25th birthday) because of injury, but his 2006 totals were very promising: a .290 batting average, .357 on-base percentage, and .517 slugging average.

David DeJesus, a 26 year old outfielder (about half his games have been in center), returned from the disabled list on May 26 (he had only about 30 at bats in April and May), and has hit .296/.366/.436 to-date.

While those performances helped return the Royals to mediocrity, they don't really address the problem I discussed in my post. What about the long-term moves needed to make KC a contender?

Well, just as I recommended, new GM Dayton Moore made a series of trades involving a number of KC's mediocre players. Mostly, the Royals received minor league pitchers in these deals, though the team also acquired 1B Ryan Shealy from the Colorado Rockies. So far, his 2006 audition has gone fairly well: .298/.350/.450 in 43 games. Hopefully, he'll hit for more power as he gains experience.

Meanwhile, as I urged, the franchise continued to develop some potential quality players: class AA 3B Alex Gordon (commonly called one of the top two prospects in baseball) and very young OF/DH Billy Butler hit almost as well as advertised in Wichita -- and their teammate starting pitcher Zach Greinke appeared to get his career back on track.

A few days after my post, the Royals followed my advice and drafted top-notch college pitcher Luke Hochevar, who the LA Dodgers had not been able to sign after the 2005 draft. The kid didn't pitch many innings in 2006, but he had a promising beginning.

I'm not ready to declared "mission accomplished," of course. The Royals starting rotation has progressed only from putrid to bad, the bullpen remains a disaster, and there are still some glaring holes up the middle. The starting catcher and shortstop have OBPs below .300 and the slugging average of the new centerfielder acquired by Moore is .277!

Still, there's enough hope now to "wait 'til next year."

Or maybe 2008.

For more on the Royals potential turnaround, check out Rob Neyer and Rany Jazayerli.



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Wednesday, June 21, 2006

Avert your eyes

Apparently, the new KC Royals GM Dayton Moore, fresh off his many year's service in the Braves organization, thinks his old team's long-term success was built around...Otis Nixon.

Ugh.

Moore just traded pitching prospect J.P. Howell for Tampa Bay outfielder Joey Gathright, who is fast. The Royals also received light-hitting potential utility infielder Fernando Cortez.

Granted, there is a good chance that Howell will not amount to much as a major league pitcher. But since he's a 23-year old left-handed former #1 draft pick (2004) out of the University of Texas, there's also at least some chance he could be valuable.

Gathright, a 32nd round draft pick in 2001, is unlikely ever to amount to much as a major league hitter. He has one career homer through over 1700 professional plate appearances. One.

His lone reliable asset is speed, though he did get on base at an impressive clip throughout his minor league time because of high batting averages and OK walk rates. However, in the majors, pitchers will definitely NOT need to "work around" a guy with ZERO power. They won't have to nibble for strikes because he's unlikely to cause that much damage.

His major league on-base average is an uninspiring .316 in about 275 plate appearances (nearly half a full season). He's also age 25, so WYSIWYG.

To a Royals fan like me, Gathright is all too reminiscent of the "Tom Goodwin era" -- and we do not look fondly at those years. Goodwin stole 150 bases in his nearly three seasons as a Royal, but the team was sub-.500 each year.

This is not a promising beginning for Moore.


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Thursday, June 15, 2006

Rocket's glare

"I'm not the man they think I am at home"

From "Rocket Man." Lyrics by Bernie Taupin, Music by Elton John
Did Roger Clemens secretly receive a 50 game suspension for violating major league baseball's steroid policy? Various rumors linking Clemens to steroids have been circulating on the internet for at least a month -- though sports writers have talked about the steroids rumors for much longer.

To those who are conspiracy-minded, a 50-game suspension (that's the new penalty for a first offense) would explain why Clemens didn't sign a contract with any team until about one-third of the season had been played. Granted, it's not the only explanation. After all, Clemens first retired from the Yankees several seasons ago and every comeback year is touted as his last.

But Clemens was eligible to sign with 29 major league teams at the beginning of the year and could have played for the Houston Astros beginning May 1 (due to a technical aspect of baseball's labor rules concerning arbitration and free agency). Did he wait until mid-June because baseball insisted?

According to the 2005 policy, which would arguably have been controlling on Clemens had he tested positive near the end of the 2005 season, players who are in the "clinical track" of the abuse policy cannot be identified.
A Club whose Player is on the Clinical Track is prohibited from disclosing any information regarding a Player’s participation in the Program to either the public, the media or other Clubs.
Who is on the "clinical track," as opposed to the "administrative track"?

That was up to the discretion of the Health Policy Advisory Committee. HPAC didn't discipline players, but by moving the player to the administrative task, they could make the player eligible for punishment by the baseball commissioner. The "clinical track" seemed to be reserved for confessed users who sought medical care for their drug use.

That discretion would seem to have given the HPAC some leverage over relations with players. Likewise, a popular but unsigned player like Clemens would have some leverage over baseball. If he decided never to return to the game, everyone presumably loses. He's an inner circle Hall of Fame player who ordinarily attracts fans. When people think steroids, they think Barry Bonds, not Roger Clemens.

The HPAC is now gone, by the way, as the November 2005 revised drug policy created a new Independent Program Administrator who reports positive test results to the various parties. However, so far as I can tell, the new policy doesn't say anything about disclosure of test results or penalties -- though baseball has obviously been announcing some positive tests and suspensions.

The Major League Player's association doesn't seem to have a copy of the revised agreement on their webpage, only the summary I linked above.

I previously blogged about the importance of transparency to the success of the anti-steroid policy. Public disclosure of steroid users (and their penalties) helps deter steroids use. Think about what the test disclosure last summer did to Rafael Palmeiro's career. He was essentially finished after that. Surely other players noticed.

I have no idea whether the rumor is true about Clemens, but if it is...then a star player managed to avoid the limelight and perhaps preserved his HOF sheen. And just maybe he paved a route for stars to avoid negative publicity that taints their legacy -- and the game. That cannot be good news for those wanting to see steroids removed from professional baseball.

If the Clemens rumor is false, well, this post is just wild speculation. But the logic will remain valid. Baseball needs a transparent anti-steroids policy. Cynical fans might make the same sorts of inferences about stars whenever there is a prolonged absence.

Think about other players linked to steroids in the press: In 2005, Barry Bonds somewhat mysteriously missed most of the season due to multiple surgeries. Gary Sheffield reportedly just had surgery and is set to miss the next three months of the season.

I'm not trying to fan wild rumors -- just advocating for more openness in the policy.




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