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Saturday, April 24, 2004

Purple states

Ruy Teixeira's blog, The Emerging Democratic Majority WebLog - DonkeyRising, has some interesting news about the so-called "purple" states (the swing states, which are neither red nor blue).
Kerry is ahead of Bush by 4 points in the battleground states (50-46). He's even ahead of Bush by 2 points in these states with Nader thrown into the mix and drawing a ridiculous 7 percent.

Note also that Bush's approval rating in the battleground states is 49 percent, 2 points under his national rating and that his approval rating on the economy in these states is just 41 percent, 3 points under his national rating.
Teixeira also points out that the most recent Gallup poll shows Bush down by 6 points in the battleground states since the March 26-28 survey. Gallup finds Bush and Kerry tied in those purple states, though Bush leads by 5% overall nationally.

Since the election is going to be won or lost in the swing states, the national lead really doesn't matter that much. Al Gore could tell Bush that.

Here's Teixeira's conclusion:
Instead of getting more votes where he [Bush] needs them--in the battleground states--his posturing is mostly driving up his support in the hardcore red states, where he doesn't need them. If that's true, Democrats should definitely not be intimidated by recent poll results. Bush is preaching to the converted--which can make him look better in a national poll--but he's not winning many new converts where it counts.
Hopefully, this interpretation is on point.

Note: As another blogger recently wrote in regard to all these polls, "I'm too lazy to link to them."

As usual, Billmon (at the Whiskey Bar) has an interesting take on Kerry, Bush, and the polls. He really is required daily reading.

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