Predicting the Oscars

For the past few weeks, I've been entering a "Pick the Oscars winners" contest sponsored by my local newspaper. The deadline was yesterday, but I tried to vote on most days to cover various permutations. The contest allowed one vote per email address per day. I only voted once per day though I could have used several addresses.

According to TradeSports, a number of categories this year feature overwhelming favorites: Martin Scorcese for Best Director, Forest Whitaker for Best Actor, Helen Mirren for Best Actress, and Jennifer Hudson for Best Supporting Actress.

Eddie Murphy is also heavily favored in the Best Supporting Actor category, though the traders seem to think he faces the stiffest competition in any acting category. Alan Arkin would not be a longshot winner.

The great unknown is likely Best Picture: "The Departed" is favored, but both "Babel" and "Little Miss Sunshine" have a lot of support. I saw only the latter, though the "Babel" DVD is sitting next to my TV ready for viewing and I might try to see "The Departed" at the second run theater in town, which is still showing it. I did see "The Queen," but it appears to have little hope.

Given my strategic voting and the limited permutations (I marked Mirren on every ballot), I very much hope to have a winner. This is the first time the newspaper has had on-line voting, so far as I know, which means that they may have many more correct ballots than ever before.


2/26/07 update: I saw "Babel" Sunday afternoon. It was the globalization of "Crash."

Oh, and on my 9th contest entry, February 7, I had 6-for-6 in the above categories. I should be in the drawing for the prize.

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