Congratulations Nayef Samhat (update)

I learned last night that my (sometimes) coauthor Nayef Samhat is departing Kenyon College, where he has served as Provost since 2009, to become President of Wofford College.

Congratulations, Nayef!

Here's a video interview from Wofford:


And this is the press release.


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Could Google Rig an Election?

Research psychologist Robert Epstein, a former editor of Psychology Today, has coauthored a study with Dr. Ronald E.  Robertson of the American Institute for Behavioral Research and Technology, on this question called “Democracy at Risk.” It is slated for presentation at this year’s meeting of the Association for Psychological Science:

In a double-blind, controlled experiment, web pages and search engine results from an actual election were presented to three groups of eligible voters. In two of the groups, rankings favored one candidate or the other. Preferences shifted dramatically toward favored candidates, with 75% of subjects showing no awareness of the manipulation. In a second experiment, voter preferences again shifted in the predicted direction, and the proportion of people who were unaware of the manipulation was increased by slightly altering the rankings to mask the favoritism. In a third experiment, a more aggressive mask was used to hide the manipulation, and no subjects appeared to be aware of it, even though voter preferences still shifted in the predicted directions. We conclude (1) that the outcomes of real elections—especially tight races—could conceivably be determined by the strategic manipulation of search engine rankings and (2) that the manipulation could be accomplished without people being aware of it.

Based on his reading of the work, Evan Leatherwood (Associate Director for Communications at Fordham University’s Schwartz Center for Media, Public Policy, & Education) concluded in the May 6, 2013 edition of The Nation: "insiders at a dominant search engine (at the moment, Google) could, if they chose, covertly pick members of Congress and even the president. What’s more, says Epstein, it is perfectly legal for a search engine to behave this way."

Michael Fischer, a professor of computer science at Yale, agrees that there is cause for concern. “To the extent that somebody wants to build a politically biased search engine, they are certainly capable of doing that,” Fischer says. “We don’t have any way of knowing what biases, if any, the search engines we currently use have, and this is a concern not just for elections, but for all areas of our democracy.”

Much of the rest of the article discusses the First Amendment implications of regulating search engines. Leatherwood favors a public and transparent search engine that does not take advertising dollars.


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Inequality Watch: China's Billionaires

Peter Kwong, professor of Asian-American studies at Hunter College, had an interesting piece about corruption and economic inequality in China in The Nation, April 22, 2013. Unfortunately, the article is behind a paywall. In any case, this is the most striking data referenced by Kwong:

Party officials and their family members have reaped the spoils of China’s prosperity and amassed unbelievable riches, creating a deeply polarized China. There are 251 billionaires in the country today, compared with only fifteen six years ago; 0.4 percent of China’s families own over 70 percent of its wealth.

In China, the economic elite are also the political elite. While political elites are wealthy in many nation-states -- even in democracies -- the concentration of wealth by Chinese national leaders is striking:

In 2012, there were more than 500 corporate CEOs in the National People’s Congress out of a total of 2,987 delegates. The top seventy members of this body are worth $89.8 billion. In contrast, the worth of all 535 members of the US Congress, the president, his cabinet and the nine Supreme Court Justices is only $7.5 billion.

As Kwong notes, the twin problems of inequality and corruption in China could prove destabilizing:

The mere fact that the Chinese are discussing their problems in terms of the French Revolution is momentous: it seems to imply that they see China today as resembling France in 1789, when public disgust with the regime’s corruption and decay led to revolution. Chinese people from all walks of life—intellectuals, professionals, laborers and farmers—have been agitating for political reform and demanding, at the very least, a constitutional government and the rule of law. Yet this is exactly what the one-party system cannot accede to, even though without real reform, the Communist Party’s future looks bleak. If it eventually collapses—which now seems a real possibility—China faces a daunting challenge: without a viable opposition group, trained and ready to take power and govern, the country will almost certainly slip into anarchy. 

I've previously noted that China's political legitimacy is built upon its sustained record of economic growth. That success has brought hundreds of millions of people out of extreme poverty. However, as China becomes wealthier and more overtly corrupt, more-and-more people are likely to notice the misbegotten concentration of political and economic power at the very top. And that could be explosive.


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Hardy House Auction 2013 in Chicago

I forgot to post this pic the other day when I wrote about the auction:

2013 Auction, Chicago, IL
Credit: Rich Puszczewicz 

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2013 Bolts from the Blue

For the 25th consecutive year, I'm competing in the Hardy House fantasy baseball league. Our auction draft was held last Saturday, April 13, in Chicago. Two owners participated by phone and another had a proxy bidder, but the rest of us enjoyed the auction, some local beer, and pizza.

As a reminder: the league has 12 teams and uses American League players exclusively to accumulate statistics in various hitting and pitching categories. For 22 years, we tabulated results in the traditional 8 categories (HR, RBI, SBs, Batting Average, Wins, Saves, Earned Run Average and ratio/Walks-plus-Hits per Inning Pitched), but in the hot stove period prior to the 2011 season we voted to dump BA in favor of On Base Average. Also, we added runs scored (R) for hitters and strikeouts (K) for pitchers.

My 2012 team finished 2nd, 4 points behind the championship squad (S1Ws). On the last Sunday of the season my team was in first place with only three days to play. In any case, the 2012 Bolts from the Blue again featured terrific starting pitching as the squad led the league in strikeouts, finished 2nd in WHIP, third in ERA, and 4th in wins. The team finished 3rd in saves as well. Offensively, the team had good power (2nd in HR and RBI), but was mediocre in other offensive categories (5th in 2 categories and 6th in the other).

Please note one roster quirk now in its sixth year: we use 10 man pitching staffs, but only 4 outfielders -- one fewer than the "normal" roto squad. We continue to believe that this better reflects roster management decisions that real baseball teams have made over the past 20 years. Again this year, we allowed the purchase of any player on an American League 40 man roster. After the auction, only players on 25 man active rosters or the major league Disabled List (DL) can be obtained. We did vote to allow teams to retain ownership of players sent packing to the National League. The recently implemented salary cap was modified so that it expires after the trade deadline. This means contending teams can spend their free agent cash in September.

The 2013 Bolts from the Blue (8 retained players in blue):

C Jason Castro (HOU) $9
C David Ross (BOS) $1 
1B Billy Butler (KC) $27

2B Jose Altuve (HOU) $23

3B Mike Moustakas (KC) $18

SS Elvis Andrus (TEX) $23

MI Jurickson Profar (TEX) $9 (AAA)

CR Brett Lawrie (TOR) $23

OF Shane Victorino (BOS) $21

OF Nelson Cruz (TEX) $19

OF Matt Joyce (TB) $8
OF Mike Olt (TEX) $4 (AAA)
DH David Ortiz (BOS) $16

Hitting $201 (up $51 from last season, which is huge)

P Matt Moore (TB) $22
P Ervin Santana (KC) $7
P Wade Davis (KC) $3
P Alex Cobb (TB) $3
P Joe Blanton (LAA) $1
P Erasmo Ramirez (SEA) $1 (AAA)
P Jared Burton (MIN) $4
P Aaron Crow (KC) $3
P Casey Janssen (TOR) $5
P Glen Perkins (MIN) $7

Pitching $56 ($51 less than last year, also huge)

I kept Crow because he seems to be a potential replacement for KC closer Greg Holland if the latter should continue to falter as the Royals bullpen ace. I owned Holland last year and he was very wild in the early part of the season. He has struggled a bit in 2013 as well and Crow already earned an early save.

One team hoarded cash throughout the auction, which meant inflation was a bit lower than it might have been. Indeed, he never found a way to spend nearly $40. That would have been enough to purchase a superstar player! 

I left $3 on the table, but I had saved some cash to purchase some slightly better players at the end of the auction to fill in my roster. As often happens, the guys I really wanted then went for too much money (or only qualified at positions I had already filled), so I ended up with several dime players instead of a couple that cost a bit more. 

Andrus was on my 2011 and 2012 teams and I bought him again for a lower salary than he would have cost as a retained player. I have a lot of Ranger hitters (4) to go with a smattering of Red Sox (3), Rays (3), Twins (2), Jays (2) and Astros (2). 

As usual, I bought or retained a large number of players from the KC Royals (5), the hometown-favorite team of my youth. I've got a good deal of confidence in Moustakas and especially Butler (a long-time favorite) as hitters. For the first time in years I also acquired some KC starting pitching.

Indeed, like the Royals, I'm hoping for a bounce back year from Santana -- and the decision looks good to-date as his performance across-the-board looks more like 2010 or 2011 than 2012. If you look at his splits, Santana had a fairly good run at the end of last season too. His ERA in August and September was about 3.65 and his K/bb ratio was 55/16 in about 60 IP. He was awful prior to last year's all star break.

To replace minor league players Profar, Olt, and Ramirez on my active roster, I bought MI Leury Garcia (TEX), OF Michael Taylor (OAK), and P Matt Thornton (CHX) for $1 each.  I also nabbed DH/1B Nate Freiman (OAK) for $1 to replace the then-injured Ortiz and IF Ryan Roberts (TB) for $3 for Lawrie, who was also on the disabled list on Monday. Roberts will actually slot in for MI Profar for the long haul as the other injured offensive regulars have already returned. I will likely need a better outfielder very soon as Taylor is not playing very often.

You can find posts about the 2005, 2007 , 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012 auctions elsewhere on this blog.



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30 years ago today

This happened:

That's a younger me, with Mark Gidley & the Larmon Trophy

It was a fine weekend.

Here's a link to the program book.


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2013 NCAA Tourney

I'll post my bracket here in the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, I encourage readers to join me in the Yahoo! Sports Tournament Pick'em group, "Payne Twitter-Blog Followers": y.ahoo.it/8M1iywX0

I'm not sure if I have to provide more detailed sign-in information or not. The name of the private group is "Payne Twitter-Blog Followers" and the group slogan is "Good luck to Kentucky in the NIT." The group, which uses the standard Yahoo! scoring system, can be found among the various groups associated with Kansas. Rock chalk!

Again, I don't know if you need a password to join, but you may need a Yahoo! account.

Update: Actually, it seems like you can sign in with your Facebook or Google account -- without a password for the group.

This is my bracket for the blog group. I picked Kansas to win the tourney in a different one for ESPN.

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Sustainability at UofL

For many years now, I've been involved with sustainability initiatives for the University of Louisville. Back in 2007, for example, I became a university member of a Utility Regulations, Policies and Procedures Subcommittee of the Climate Change Committee working under the Partnership for a Green City. We produced a Climate Action Report in 2009 for the city of Louisville.

I was also listed as a member of the Education and Outreach Subcommittee, but I honestly didn't attend many of their meetings. The Education group included many individuals who had already worked with the Honors program to develop a number of new classes on campus. I taught on Honors seminar on "The Geopolitics of Climate Change" in fall 2007 and then used that class to reorient my regular Political Science course on Global Ecopolitics.

While serving as Acting Department Chair in 2007-2008, I joined with Barbara Burns (chair of Psychology at the time) and a number of other interested faculty and staff at UofL to form the A&S "Green Team." We met regularly to discuss initiatives that are now often taken for granted at the University: a vastly improved recycling program, energy conservation measures, a free bike program, etc. We talked a great deal about behavioral programs, but limited resources precluded implementation of many of them. Still, we helped conduct multiple programs on climate change, promoted simple energy conservation measures, audited energy use in 700 A&S offices, created a model green dorm room, etc. The Green Team's “12 by 12” energy conservation plan aimed at reducing energy use by 12% in 2012 from a 2006 baseline.

Most importantly, under the leadership of Barb Burns, Russ Barnett, Joy Hart, and other members of the A&S community, the group helped pressure the University to create a Sustainability Council. Barb Burns was the first chair of that group and I succeeded her as head of the "Green Team" in 2009. The A&S group continued to meet for about a year or so, but it quickly became apparent that the need for the group had been largely met by the Sustainability Council. University-wide budget cuts forced A&S into some difficult budget cuts and the Green Team suffered for it.

In any case, virtually the entire leadership group for the Green Team became members of the Sustainability Council. I was named to the Sustainability Council and its Administration, Finance, and Outreach Committee in 2009 -- a group that I have chaired since fall 2012. In a related development, I served next on the Provost's Ad Hoc committee on Socially Responsible Investing. We produced a document recommending a number of specific changes in the University's money management, but the followup has been slow in coming.

This January, however, the Operations Committee reported some of the University's major successes:

A long-term project to save energy at UofL is outpacing its original goals, according to a progress report released last week. Belknap Campus fuel use dropped 48 percent while electricity and water use dropped 27 and 31 percent, respectively, from their annual usage before the project started...

The reported energy savings is from 2011, the first full year after workers installed more efficient lighting; updated heating, cooling and ventilation systems; and found ways to cut water consumption in 71 campus buildings and outdoor areas. The overall reduction in energy use has trimmed the greenhouse gas emissions emitted on Belknap Campus by an annual 53 million pounds — an amount equal to removing 4,400 cars from the road for a year, Siemens officials said.

Though those documented gains are attributed almost exclusively to a service contract with Siemens Industries, at least some of those energy savings should be credited to behavioral initiatives promoted by the A&S Green Team. Of course, there is room for more to be done. The University aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% by 2020 and wants to be carbon-neutral by 2050.



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Lynyrd Skynyrd on Guns

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Saturday: College Hoops Checkup

Louisville-Notre Dame, March 9, 2013; Photo credit: Jason Gainous

I managed to attend five University of Louisville basketball games this season -- home games versus Syracuse (a tough loss), Marquette, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame. In the two games last week, the home Cardinals essentially destroyed their opponents with smothering defense and timely shooting. In Saturday's game, the Cards atypically didn't even attempt a three-point field goal in the first 7 or 8 minutes of the game. Instead, they took the ball inside and made easy baskets.

It is very difficult to return to the Final Four, but this year's Louisville team seems to have the ability (thanks largely to that terrific defense).

Meanwhile, Kansas got walloped in a road game at Baylor. I didn't see the game, but based on my halftime check-in, it appears the defense completely broke down in the second half. Oh, and KU seemed to have rare foul trouble. Kansas too could return to the Final Four, but that's hard to write on the heels of their worst loss since 2006.


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Johnny Cash on Guns

Cash would have been 81 last week.


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Oscar films

Photo credit: Noel Y.C. on Flickr

The Oscars are going to be televised tonight and my wife and I have been busy watching nominated films and acting performances since the beginning of the year. Regular readers may recall that I didn't actually see any of the films nominated for best picture during the 2012 calendar year. Until 2013, I didn't see any of the nominated acting performances either.

During 2012, I did see "Skyfall," which was nominated for a handful of technical or musical awards and "The Avengers," which received one such nomination. "Moonrise Kingdom," the best 2012 film I watched during the eligibility year, received a well-deserved writing nomination.

In any case, based on my 2013 efforts to see the 2012 contenders, I'm going to rank-order the films and acting performances. Obviously, this is my completely subjective perspective -- and not an ideal way to think about art. Plus, I can only rank the performances I watched. That is a big limit since I failed to see four of the Oscar-nominated Best Picture nominees and missed "The Master" when it was in town (it comes out on DVD this week).

Note that these are not my predictions about winners in each category. Go to Intrade if you want predictions.  Spoiler Alert: "Argo" is a strong favorite ("Lincoln" was a heavy favorite until "Argo" started winning awards), along with Daniel Day-Lewis and Steven Spielberg for their contributions, plus Louisville's Jennifer Lawrence.


Best Picture

Argo **
Zero Dark Thirty  (post-Oscar viewing, March) **
Django Unchained **
Lincoln **
Silver Linings Playbook  **
Beasts of the Southern Wild

Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)

Actress

Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Actor in a Supporting Role

Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Alan Arkin (Argo)
Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)

Actress in a Supporting Role

Sally Field (Lincoln)
Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

Directing

David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)


** I saw these films in the theater.

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Life on Russian Roads

Did you see last night's episode of "The Daily Show"? This segment was one of the most hilarious ever:

The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Get More: Daily Show Full Episodes,Political Humor & Satire Blog,The Daily Show on Facebook

"Tank!"

The "Benny Hill" video/audio tribute near the end is definitely worth the wait.

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Billy Beane

I trekked across the state border tonight to see Oakland A's General Manager Billy Beane speak at Indiana University Southeast. Beane had been invited to deliver the keynote address for the annual Sanders Speaker Series.

The format was interview style rather than lecture. Local writer and academic Marty Rosen (yes, Neal (if you ever read this space anymore), that Marty Rosen) sat next to Beane on stage and asked engaging questions for about an hour -- and then they opened it up to audience members.

Beane proved to be an entertaining and intelligent guest for this sort of event.

The questions were diverse, triggering Beane to reveal his favorite baseball films of all time (Pride of the Yankees, The Natural and Field of Dreams -- Beane is a self-described baseball romantic, at least as  a fan), his most memorable trading experiences as GM (the 1999 mid-season trades), his appreciation for Baseball Prospectus and their former employee Nate Silver, the influence of the 1993 Phillies offense on his baseball thinking, and the background story for this unusual convergence of thinkers. 

One member of the audience asked Beane what kind of statistical metrics teams were using "behind the scenes" that fans didn't know about. He replied by referencing an old SNL skit that he has likely noted on many similar occasions (paraphrasing). A reporter at a press briefing asks a U.S. military general: "Sir, what would be the one piece of information that would be most dangerous for the Iraqis to know?" 

Good stuff.

By the way, Beane pointed out that 2013 is the 10th anniversary of Moneyball. Devoted blog readers may remember my own take on Beane's early years.


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Sorry, Wrong Number?

Just in case anyone has the wrong idea about the role of the U.S. military in global politics, outgoing Defense Secretary Leon Panetta offered a simple reminder last week. From ABC News:

"The United States military is not and should not be a global 911 service capable of arriving on the scene within minutes to every possible contingency around the world," Panetta told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Put differently, don't call us, we'll call you.

This comment from Panetta reminded me of a similar one made by Bill Clinton's first Secretary of Defense, William Perry:

I've said before, and I will say it again, the U.S. Army is an Army. It is not a Salvation Army. We're not in the business of providing humanitarian relief.

I quoted a similar statement from Perry back in 2004. However, I also noted that when Perry offered this pithy turn of phrase, he typically outlined circumstances when the U.S. military could provide humanitarian assistance.

When do we decide it is important to do that? What are the exceptional cases?

First of all it has to be a catastrophe of large proportions. That was true two years ago, during this cholera thing -- 5,000 people a day were dying. It appears to be true today in the refugee problem in Rwanda and Zaire. Secondly it has to be something where the United States military forces have something unique that they can provide. Two years ago we were the only organization that had the combination of airlift, water purification equipment and engineers that could get in and solve that problem in time. So we did. And finally, it has to be an operation which is acceptably low risk, and in which we have an exit strategy.

All of those have applied to operations where we send forces to assist in humanitarian operations. Those are the criteria that we would be applying to any humanitarian operation which we get involved in Africa.

Presumably, the Obama administration would agree with this, by and large.


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Out of Print

As I noted about a year ago, advertisers have spent the past decade or so abandoning print media in favor of the internet. The data from 2012 suggest the trend is worsening -- mostly to the benefit of Google:

A new study from Statista has revealed that Google (GOOG) is making more advertising revenue than the entire U.S. print media combined. The Internet giant has raked in slightly more than $20 billion in ad revenue in the first six months of 2012, while the U.S. print media industry has generated just less than $20 billion as a whole.

“Google, a company founded just 14 years ago, makes more money from advertising than an industry that has been around for more than a hundred years,” Statista notes.

Here's what the trend looks like in a graph:

Back in 2000, I believe my household subscribed to at least 10 different magazines. However, No Depression folded nearly five years ago. The American Prospect was a biweekly, became a monthly (published 10 times per year), and is now a (thick) bimonthly. Most other magazines we receive have dropped the total number of issues published per year or reduced their content. Utne Reader jacked up subscription prices to a level that made each bimonthly issue cost about $6. We dropped it.


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Steve Earle on Guns

"Devil's Right Hand" off "Copperhead Road."



I cannot believe that the CD was released in 1988 -- 25 years on. I listened to the first three Steve Earle records very, very frequently. The first two, I had purchased on vinyl and this was one of my first CDs.

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Cameron on Democracy

David Cameron; Photo credit = Foreign Press Association in London on Flickr

Have you read British PM David Cameron's address to the United Nations General Assembly, delivered September 26, 2012? In the speech, Cameron reminds the global audience that he is "a Liberal Conservative, not a Neo-Conservative." He continued:

I respect the different histories and traditions that each country has. I welcome the steps taken in countries where reform is happening with the consent of the people.  I know that every country takes its own path. And that progress will sometimes be slow.

Thus, he offers a hopeful reading of developments following the so-called Arab Spring and calls for the United Nations and the Security Council to support the "building blocks of democracy," which he defines most simply as "fair economies and open societies." In another section of the speech, he elaborates that the building blocks also include "the independence of the judiciary and the rule of law, with the majority prepared to defend the rights of the minority, the freedom of the media, a proper place for the army in society and the development of effective state institutions, political parties and wider civil society."

By making this claim, Cameron offers an implicit critique of the former George W. Bush era, when elections and democracy were often equated. Here's a snipped from a Bush speech in 2005, delivered as Iraqis were about to hold an election:

We are living through a watershed moment in the story of freedom. Most of the focus now is on this week's elections -- and rightly so. Iraqis will go to the polls to choose a government that will be the only constitutional democracy in the Arab world.

 In Cameron's words, however, "democracy is not – and never has been – just about simply holding an election. It is not one person, one vote, once." Think about the endurance of Hamid Karzai in Afghanistan, and the longstanding U.S. claims about how his election represents democracy for Afghanistan.

Despite making these arguments about elections, Cameron demonstrates progress after the Arab Spring primarily by pointing to election results:

First of all, there are those who say there has been too little progress, that the Arab Spring has produced few tangible improvements in people’s lives. This isn’t right. Look at Libya since the fall of Gaddafi. We have seen elections to create a new Congress...

As we saw so inspiringly in Benghazi last weekend, they are taking to the streets in their thousands, refusing to allow extremists to hijack their chance for democracy. The Arab Spring has also brought progress in Egypt where the democratically elected President has asserted civilian control over the military, in Yemen and Tunisia where elections have also brought new governments to power and in Morocco where there’s a new constitution – and a Prime Minister appointed on the basis of a popular vote for the first time. And even further afield, Somalia has also taken a vital step forward by electing a new President.

By the way, Bush's most famous speech about democratization, his Second Inaugural address, never mentioned the words "ballot," "election," "vote" or "voting."  Remember the theme of that speech? Cameron's fairly extensive discussion of religion focuses on the compatibility of Islam and democracy.


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