"It is highly unlikely we will win Alaska or North Dakota or Idaho or Nebraska," she told reporters. "But we have to win Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, California, Arizona, New Mexico, Florida, Michigan ... And we've got to be competitive in places like Texas, Missouri and Oklahoma."If Clinton thinks she can win Oklahoma or Texas in November, then I doubt her political instincts.
On Monday, the former first lady went a step further saying that it would take a "tsunami change in America," for Democrats to carry some of Obama's red states. "It's just not going to happen," she told ABC7 and Politico.
Likewise, I seriously doubt that candidate Obama would lose Massachusetts, California, or New York. Those are fairly solid blue states.
Still, Clinton's underlying point has some merit. Has Barack Obama been winning the overall delegate count by sweeping a bunch of red states that won't vote for the Democratic candidate this November?
Even more importantly, which candidate is doing best in the so-called purple states?
This is the data to-date:
Red states (13, Obama 11-2)
North Dakota: Obama
South Carolina: Obama
Blue states (11, Obama 7-4)
District of Columbia: Obama
New Jersey: Clinton
New York: Clinton
Purple states (9, Obama 5-4, nearly 5-2-2)
Nevada: Clinton (Obama won delegate count)
New Hampshire: Clinton
New Mexico: Clinton (nearly tied)
Obama's delegate lead is likely inflated by his wins in the red states, but the candidate has proven that he can win blue and purple states that the Democrats will need in November to win the 2008 election.
Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are important purple states with upcoming primaries.
Two very critical purple states may need to vote again to be counted. Clinton "won" a Michigan primary that was not supposed to count -- and Obama was not on the ballot. She also won Florida, which was not supposed to count, but where Obama was on the ballot. The DNC penalized these states for moving their primaries to early dates. All the candidates pledged not to campaign in those states -- and they did not campaign. No delegates were awarded.
One could make an argument that both Minnesota and Tennessee should be swing states. New Jersey and Washington might also be considered swing states by some measures. Those states went 2-2 for Obama-Clinton.
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