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Saturday, July 16, 2022

COVID Update: Omicron Edition

Readers of this blog are most likely vaccinated to some extent against COVID-19 -- a big majority of Americans are. Of course, the level of vaccination varies greatly. The CDC says that about 78% of the US population has had one dose of vaccine and 67% has had the "complete initial protocol." Only about 38% of Americans have received the booster even though almost everyone 5 or older can get one dose. FYI: The CDC officially recommends that everyone eligible should get boosted. Below I reference some research suggesting the booster might save your life. 

A second booster shot (also recommended by the CDC for those eligible) is available for people aged 50 and above, plus the immunocompromised -- basically, the people facing the greatest risks during the pandemic.

Unfortunately, the virus keeps mutating and so neither the vaccines nor previous infection have been especially effective at preventing transmission of the latest version of the disease. They are doing a much better job at preventing hospitalization and death, as the rates for those outcomes have been lower in the US in 2022 than they were in 2020. 

The Washington Post reported in late April that the most recent variants have primarily been  killing peopled aged 75 and up: "nearly two-thirds of the people who died during the omicron surge were 75 and older." However, there are differences among the victims:
the bulk of vaccinated deaths are among people who did not get a booster shot, according to state data provided to The Post. In two of the states, California and Mississippi, three-quarters of the vaccinated senior citizens who died in January and February did not have booster doses.
A new study also finds that it is dangerous to become infected with the virus multiple times: 
The constellation of findings show that reinfection adds non-trivial risks of all-cause mortality, hospitalization, and adverse health outcomes in the acute and post-acute phase of the reinfection. Reducing overall burden of death and disease due to SARS-CoV-2 will require strategies for reinfection prevention.
This is likely already be baked into that data, but experts say about 1 to 5% of COVID patients develop what is commonly called "long COVID"
The percentage of people with severely debilitating symptoms is probably between 1 and 5 percent — amounting to millions of people in this country, according to Harlan Krumholz, a Yale University professor of medicine.
The April information referenced above is now a bit out of date as it is primarily discussing the Omicron variant that was then dominant -- version BA.2. The new BA.5 variant is seemingly much more contagious. Indeed, from Alpha to Delta and then through the several Omicron variants, virtually ever wave of the virus has been propelled by an ever more contagious version of the disease. 

There is some good news: While it was recently calculated and reported that the R-naught (or R0) of BA.5 is over 18, making it the most contagious viral infection known to man (worse than measles), that is apparently incorrect and fact-checkers have now corrected the reporting. It is, however, too soon to calculate the R0 precisely. By the time we can calculate it, the new BA.2.75 circulating in India might be dominant. 


Additionally, the current circulating versions of the disease remain deadlier than the seasonal flu -- at least for the unvaccinated

In all, the information fairly clearly reveals that the pandemic is not over -- no matter how many unhelpful strangers tell you that it is -- and people should continue to take precautions.

Get boosted. Wear an effective mask (N95 or KN95). Maybe even outdoors (in crowds)

Practice social distancing

The government should be pushing harder to reinstate masks on planes and other forms of public transportation.  Indeed, because of standing room only crowds and poor ventilation, buses might be the most dangerous. 



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