Does Afghanistan need a surge?

US journalists frequently report that "the surge" dramatically reduced violence in Iraq. Unfortunately, even as violence has declined in Iraq, it has increased significantly in Afghanistan.

The past two months, in fact, more troops have died in Afghanistan than in Iraq. This report is from yesterday's AP story:

Militants killed more U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan in June than in Iraq for the second straight month, a grim milestone capping a run of headline-grabbing insurgent attacks that analysts say underscore the Taliban's growing strength.

Militant attacks are up 40% over 2007, reportedly and are apparently becoming more sophisticated in a number of ways. The US just had its deadliest month in Iraq since the war started in 2001.

"I think possibly we've reached a turning point," said Mustafa Alani, the director of security and terrorism studies at the Dubai-based Gulf Research Center. "Insurgents now are more active, more organized, and the political environment, whether in Pakistan or Afghanistan, favors insurgent activities."

Critics charge that the coalition lacks a strategy for victory in Afghanistan:

Barnett Rubin, an expert on Afghanistan at NYU, said the Paris conference shows a strong international commitment to Afghanistan, but he said there is still no strategy for longterm success.

"Let's focus on the essentials: creating a secure environment for Afghanistan and Pakistan to address their problems and for the international community to eliminate al-Qaida's safe haven," Rubin said. "We haven't been getting there, and we are not getting closer, pledges or no pledges."

Both Pakistan and Afghanistan have launched new attacks in their border area, so the violence in the region continues to escalate.


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Wider war: Afghan edition

For the first time since the "war on terror" began, the Karzai government in Afghanistan has threatened to attack Pakistan. The BBC reported Sunday:

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has threatened to send troops over the border into Pakistan to confront militants based there.

He said that when militants crossed over from Pakistan to kill Afghans and coalition troops, his nation had the right to retaliate in "self-defence"....

"Afghanistan has the right of self-defence. When they cross the territory from Pakistan to come and kill Afghans and to kill coalition troops it exactly gives us the right to go back and do the same."

Yusuf Raza Gilani, Pakistan's prime minister, replied:

"Neither do we interfere in anyone else's matters, nor will we allow anyone to interfere in our territorial limits and our affairs,"

If these threats aren't scary enough, just last week the U.S. launched another attack inside Pakistan. This time, however, the attack killed nearly a dozen Pakistani troops. The BBC again:

Pakistan's Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani has condemned an air strike by Afghanistan-based US forces that Islamabad says killed 11 of its troops.

The incident took place inside Pakistan, near the border with Afghanistan.

The US military confirmed it had used artillery and air strikes after coming under fire from "anti-Afghan" forces.

...Pakistan's military called it a "completely unprovoked and cowardly act".

Incidentally, speaking of escalation, did you know the US currently has about 23,000 troops in Afghanistan -- part of a 53,000 troop NATO force. Apparently, we're heading to 32,000 troops in Afghanistan -- the largest deployment there since the war began.


Note: Type in first line corrected June 19.


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