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Tuesday, June 15, 2004

Diplomats and Military Commanders for Change

Sometimes, I like to see the international spin of a domestic story. So, here's the British Independent on the group of former diplomats and generals who want to see Bush lose the election.

Here's the purpose of the group's statement:
"We agreed that we had just lost confidence in the ability of the Bush administration to advocate for American interests or to provide the kind of leadership that we think is essential," said William Harrop, who served as the first President Bush's ambassador to Israel, and previously in four African countries. "The group does not endorse Kerry, although it more or less goes without saying in the statement."
The Independent's take on the story is quite brief.

The BBC version of the story identifies a few additional details about the individuals included in the group and notes that "known critics of the administration were deliberately excluded."

So, what former officials are on board?
They include William Crowe, who as chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, was America's top military officer and Admiral Stansfield Turner, a former director of the CIA.
Actually, a text box has more detail:
William C Harrop
Ambassador to Israel under Bush Sr

Gen Joseph P Hoar
Commander in chief of US Central Command under Bush Sr; supports John Kerry

Merrill A McPeak
Former Air Force chief of staff; supports Kerry

Jack F Matlock
Ambassador to the USSR under Reagan and Bush Sr

Adm William J Crowe
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Reagan and ambassador to UK under Clinton; has endorsed Kerry

Adm Stansfield Turner
CIA director under Carter; has endorsed Kerry
Like a lot of versions I've seen of this story, the BBC quotes one of the critics:
Phyllis Oakley, the former deputy state department spokesperson under President Reagan, told the BBC World Service's World Today programme that Mr Bush's Iraq policy had played a big part in their decision to publicise their concerns.

"But it goes beyond that to the whole thrust of his posture for the US and the world - to move away from the international structures that have been painstakingly built up over the years, away from our work with allies," she said.

Ms Oakley said it was a "dangerous posture" for the US to act as the "unilateral, sole superpower" that could impose its will on others.
The New York Times story is fairly short and is taken from an AP wire feed. It seems to be virtually the same story, in fact, that readers of the Independent had:
"We agreed that we had just lost confidence in the ability of the Bush administration to advocate for American interests or to provide the kind of leadership that we think is essential," said William C. Harrop, the first President Bush's ambassador to Israel and earlier an ambassador to four African countries."
That quote from Harrop appears in the UK paper, though he is additionally referenced as saying, "We just feel very strongly that the country needs new leadership."

I agree with that.

Tuesday night, David Letterman ran a video clip of George W. Bush defining the phrase "24/7." After Bush was shown stating the obvious, Letterman said, "I'm going to miss that guy."

Looters with Limos

If you miss the cold war, you probably long for the good old days when defense contractors could get away with crony capitalism because "the Soviet threat" (or do you prefer Red Menace?) justified non-market economic practices.

We had to hand out big no-bid defense contracts just to keep the giant military complex revved up all the time.

Now, of course, we merely have the "war on terror" and it's tought to identify the major opponents. Thanks to Iraq, however, the defense contractors are managing to survive and prosper.

The Looters with Limos blog hasn't had a new entry in almost two months, but I'm using the title for this post in tribute to its spirit.

More importantly, the New York Times finally seems to be on the theme with some gusto. Yesterday, the paper published Erik Eckholm's story, "White House Officials and Cheney Aide Approved Halliburton Contract in Iraq, Pentagon Says."

Basically, it turns out that the Vice President's office has been lying about some of the no-bid Halliburton contracts. He apparently did have prior knowledge of them and some highly placed political leaders did have to approve them.

Pentagon officials have spilled the beans.
In the fall of 2002, in the preparations for possible war with Iraq, the Pentagon sought and received the assent of senior Bush administration officials, including the vice president's chief of staff, before hiring the Halliburton Company to develop secret plans for restoring Iraq's oil facilities, Pentagon officials have told Congressional investigators.
Remember in the 2000 Vice Presidential debate when Cheney said "I can tell you, Joe [Lieberman], that the government had absolutely nothing to do with" his being "better off" than he was eight years ago?

Ha!

First, the denials:
Appearing on the NBC News program "Meet the Press" on Sept. 14, 2003, Mr. Cheney said, "And as vice president, I have absolutely no influence of, involvement of, knowledge of in any way, shape or form of contracts led by the Corps of Engineers or anybody else in the federal government." He referred to the Army Corps of Engineers, which has managed oil infrastructure contracts.

Asked if he had been aware of Halliburton's noncompetitive awards, Mr. Cheney said, "I don't know any of the details of the contract because I deliberately stayed away from any information on that."

Richard A. Boucher, the State Department spokesman, said of Iraq contracting in a news conference last October: "The decisions are made by career procurement officials. There's a separation, a wall, between them and political-level questions when they're doing the contracts."
Next, the Times reporting that at least one Democrat has a spine:
In a letter faxed Sunday to Mr. Cheney and given to reporters, Representative Henry A. Waxman, the minority leader of the panel, asked him for all records of his office's communications on the oil contracts and for records of Deputies Committee meetings where the Halliburton deals had been discussed.

"These new disclosures appear to contradict your assertions that you were not informed about the Halliburton contracts," Mr. Waxman, Democrat of California, wrote. "They also seem to contradict the administration's repeated assertions that political appointees were not involved in the award of the contracts to Halliburton."
The latest revelations refer to a specific $2 Billion contract, of which Halliburton received $1.2 billion.


Monday, June 14, 2004

Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004

At journalist Josh Marshall's blog, I found this link to the Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004
[Note: apparently, you have to page down to see this; anyone know how to shrink the gif?]


Dark blue is "safe," light blue is "weak" and white surrounded by light blue is "barely" Kerry. Red is for Bush.

Safe Kerry (147)
Weak Kerry (48)
Barely Kerry (95)
Barely Bush (51)
Weak Bush (49)
Safe Bush (144)

If these numbers hold, Kerry wins 290-244. I don't know why a few electoral votes are missing.

If Florida goes to Bush, he wins 271-263. Then again, switch just Wisconsin and Kerry wins 273-261.

Thus, it's close.

The Election Projection page (produced by a Bush supporter) had it Kerry 316, Bush 222 on June 12.

So far as I can tell, Larry Sabato still doesn't have his map or predictions available.

Sunday, June 13, 2004

Another War College Warning

Jeffrey Record and Andrew Terrill of the Army War College have co-authored another interesting study about Iraq from their home at the Army's think tank (the Strategic Studies Institute). Actually, Record was a visitor in Carlisle (PA) last year; he normally resides at the Air War College in Alabama.

Like Records's previous study on Iraq and the war on terror, and one by Antulio Echevarria II on US warmaking, this report is receiving publicity because it is fairly critical and/or skeptical of the US mission in Iraq.

Indeed, this latest study aims to draw explicit comparisons to a famous quagmire. The title? "Iraq and Vietnam: Differences, Similarities and Insights."

Reuters had a story about the report in May, when it was released:
"In Vietnam, we were trying to prop up a government that had little legitimacy. In Iraq, we're trying to weave together a government and support it so it can develop legitimacy. Both are extremely hard to do," said co-author W. Andrew Terrill, of the War College's Strategic Studies Institute.
Legitimacy in the context of the Iraq war was the theme of one of my first few posts on this blog.

As Bob Johnson has noted, this study demonstrates that "it's not just a few left wing 'whackos' thinking along those lines."

Record and Terrill, of course, do not find many military parallels between Iran and Vietnam. Rather, they focus on the political similarities and foresee:
dire consequences if the political lessons of Vietnam go unheeded. "Repetition of those failures in Iraq could have disastrous consequences for U.S. foreign policy," it says.
Hmmm, what kind of political failures?

For some reason, the SSI link to the report doesn't always work, but the Reuter's story has these tidbits:
Given that Iraqis have known nothing but authoritarian rule since the country's inception, it's impossible to say whether U.S. policy will succeed, the authors say.

Insurgent violence could also grow after the June 30 handover, when the run-up to elections magnifies divisions among rival ethnic, religious and tribal groups, all well-stocked with weapons and ammunition.

"The main threat to state-building in Iraq lies not in the insurgency in central Iraq but rather in the potential for the recent uprising of Shi'ite militants to reignite, expand, and include large elements of that community, or the development of the kind of sectarian civil war that plunged Lebanon into near anarchy for almost two decades," the report says.
So, one major potential problem is internal to Iraq.

But another involves domestic US support for the war:
With U.S. deaths in Iraq now at 791 and taxpayer costs expected to soar above $180 billion, the authors are cautious about the longevity of U.S. public support.

"Americans could become very impatient should the rationale for a continuing and costly U.S. occupation of Iraq shift to a more direct focus on uplifting the Iraqi people, especially if the Iraq public appears ungrateful," their report says.
As I wrote some weeks ago, this support hinges at least in part on public diplomacy.

The polls, currently show that the public has turned against the war.

I guess Bush's recent speech at Carlisle, linking Iraq to the war on terror, flopped.

Another culture update

It's the weekend, my wife's brother and sister have been visiting, and I'm trying to recover from the Hit and Run.

So, it's time for another culture update.

Last weekend, the family checked out "Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban." I thought it was better than the second one (which I really cannot remember...though I recall that Kenneth Branagh was in it).

What should parents like me make of this line from the film? "I solemnly swear that I am up to no good."


Trivia question: How many times did characters refer to Hermione as the most promising witch of her age?

Last night, my spouse, her siblings and I went to see Jeff Black and Kim Richey. The show was good, though jet lag and other maladies caused us to leave after about 90 minutes.


Finally, RIP Tony B.

Oh, and Ray Charles. Ray was singing alt-country with soul and passion long before Norah Jones ever recorded a note. Check it out.

Saturday, June 12, 2004

Hit and run

About 6:35 eastern time Friday night, I was driving home from the office, thinking about the pizza and beer I was about to enjoy with my family. Suddenly a large tan car ('80s Buick maybe?) appeared in my lane -- heading straight at me.

The driver had apparently been driving too fast to make a right turn and was swerving a great deal. His traffic light was red, so I suspect he was making this turn in a last-ditch effort to avoid hitting the large SUV that was in front of me and about to enter the intersection.

Basically, there really wasn't much I could do except slam on the brake.

I was in a '92 Mazda Protege, which doesn't have airbags. Though my seatbelt restrained me (the cop said otherwise the steering column would have collapsed), I walked away with serious bruising and pain from hitting the steering wheel. The EMTs, who arrived very fast, quickly took me to the emergency room where I had four different chest X-rays to make sure that I didn't have internal injuries.

The police officer on the scene arrived about 8 pm to take my statement. He told me that the other driver had fled (on foot), but that the car was apparently not stolen. I forgot to ask the name of the owner of the vehicle -- or even what kind of car it was.

For a few seconds, the other driver and I were "eyeball-to-eyeball," separated by perhaps 8 feet of newly compressed automobiles. He looked a lot like the character "Chase" on the TV program "24."


For a few days, I'll be recovering from these bruises. Meanwhile, we have to figure out how to replace this "exceptional" car (that's how Kelly's Blue Book put it). It only had about 67,000 miles, so I was planning to use it for several more years, driving 6 miles each way to work. It was only worth 2 or 3 grand on the market, but it was worth a great deal to us.

Sigh.

Friday, June 11, 2004

Just Like Old Times

Do you miss the cold war?

If so, you are probably enjoying the 24/7 Reagan-Fest, which apparently cannot be interrupted for other news -- whether about the forthcoming presidential election or the torture memos.

Newspapers are reporting the latest figures on world military expenditures complied by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
World military spending surged last year, reaching about $956 billion (U.S.), nearly half of it by the United States as it paid for missions in Iraq, Afghanistan and the war against terror...

Military spending rose 11 per cent in 2003, up 18 per cent from 2001, the last year for which figures were available.

The $956 billion spent on defence costs worldwide represents 2.7 per cent of the world's gross domestic product, according to the annual report.

"It's very close to the Cold War peak in 1987," said institute researcher and report co-author Elisabeth Skoens.

The United States led the world in defence spending, accounting for 47 per cent of the total, followed by Japan with 5 per cent and Britain, France and China, with 4 per cent each.
Isn't it great how the United States can reach cold war military spending levels without even bothering to have an opponent?

Who gets the credit for this mega-spending? Is it dangerous? Republican Senator Dick Lugar blames Bush and says it is.

I'll agree.

Thursday, June 10, 2004

Flip flops

I've been thinking about John Kerry's alleged "flip flop" problem, which was documented in the latest LA Times poll.
when asked which candidate was more likely to flip-flop on issues, almost twice as many named Kerry than Bush.
I guess those Bush commercials have accomplished something.

The Bush campaign certainly wants to label Kerry a flip flopper. The President, in contrast, is to be viewed as a firm and decisive leader. These ideas, apparently, help make the "war on terror" a potentially winning issue for Bush. Americans want firm and decisive action against terrorism.

This is potentially quite bad for the Democrat: Kerry voted for the war and plays up his service experience. However, if voters want someone strong, and if there's no big difference between the candidates on security issues, why change? Stick with Bush. However, if Kerry reverses course and tries to use Iraq against the incumbent, he's simply a weak and opportunistic flip flopper. Vote for Bush.

Heads I win, tails you lose.

However, there's good new for Kerry in the latest poll data. First, he's beating Bush nationally 51% to 44%. Add Nader and it is 48% to 42% (meaning, apparently, that some Bush voters prefer Nader).

Even better, however, is this poll finding: the country wants a giant flip flop:
Nearly three-fifths believe the nation is on the wrong track, the highest level a Times poll has recorded during Bush's presidency.

Also, 56% said America "needs to move in a new direction" because Bush's policies have not improved the country.
The Times pointed out that the Bush people have perhaps gone overboard with the flip flop thing:
By a resounding 58% to 16%, poll respondents said the phrase "too ideological and stubborn" applied more to Bush than to Kerry.
As I blogged last month, even many conservatives think this administration is driven too much by ideology.

I think this data means that Kerry is succeeding in part because of his liberalism. You know, the classic definitions that imply an interest in reform and progress, willingness to change, and broad-mindedness.

Americans are basically liberal -- especially in the face of bad news. "Stay the course" only works if the course is good. In 1988, George Herbert Walker Bush could rely upon peace and prosperity to "stay the course" against Michael Dukakis.

We currently have neither peace nor prosperity. The country is longing for a flip flopper.

Furthermore, as Matt Yglesias points out:
Americans really do want the government to solve their problems, clean their air and water, educate their children, cure their sick, and keep them safe from terrorists and defective products.
These battles were fought and won in the 1980s, and Clintonism sealed it. In 2000, more Americans voted for these ideas than for Bush's ideas (concealed as they were in "compassionate conservatism," made up so as to sound more than a little bit liberal).

Bush is going to lose.

Billmon at the Whiskey Bar makes another related and interesting point about the election when he explains why Bush is not getting a bounce in the polls from the 24 hour Reagan-Fest.

Borrowing from the world of product advertising, Billmon notes:
But one of the concepts that stuck in my head was the idea of the "contrast gainer" - or, conversely, the "contrast detractor."

The idea is that product comparisons can be critical, particularly in visual ads. To use a crude example: If you put a bouquet of carnations next to a bouqet of flowers, the carnations look ... ordinary, drab even. But if you put the carnations next to a bucket of manure, they look vivid, fresh, colorful, etc. For carnations, manure is a contrast gainer; roses a contrast detractor.
Kerry is a good contrast to Bush, Bush is a poor contrast to both Reagan and Kerry.

Fortunately, Kerry isn't running against Reagan and the Republicans aren't going to be able to make Americans think that he is, even if the Bush campaign website features 100% Reagan photos and visuals.


Update: Speaking of "contrast detraction," I should have included Kevin Drum's line, "The problem with comparing Bush to Reagan is that Bush comes off as a mediocre painter trying to emulate Picasso."

Wednesday, June 09, 2004

War emblems

Kentucky isn't really a central front in the war on terror, but 2 interesting recent stories make some strange connections.

First, remember the September 2001 flights out of the US (during a time when air traffic was grounded) filled with Saudi nationals? Well, the St. Petersberg Times is reporting today that the 9/11 Commission is interested in a flight that departed Tampa for Lexington, KY and then returned to Tampa. The Saudis on board, including "a prince," apparently departed the US from Lexington:
Two days after the Sept. 11 attacks, with most of the nation's air traffic still grounded, a small jet landed at Tampa International Airport, picked up three young Saudi men and left.

The men, one of them thought to be a member of the Saudi royal family, were accompanied by a former FBI agent and a former Tampa police officer on the flight to Lexington, Ky.

The Saudis then took another flight out of the country. The two ex-officers returned to TIA a few hours later on the same plane.
The story includes a fair amount of detail about how more than 140 Saudi nationals were allowed to leave the country that week. The local officials, however, say that none of the 3 Saudis on board the Tampa-Lexington flight were screened in any way. Either the FAA, FBI or White House likely approved the flight.

Another Saudi-Kentucky angle has also been circulating (most recently in this syndicated NY Daily News Story by Michael O'Keefe) for about a month (originally in a Baltimore Sun story by John Eisenberg). Prince Ahmed bin Salman, owner of 2002 Kentucky Derby winner War Emblem has been named as a conduit between the Saudi royal family and al Qaeda. The allegations are made in Craig Unger's House of Bush, House of Saud and Why America Slept: The Failure to Prevent 9/11, by journalist Gerald Posner. From Eisenberg:
According to Posner's book, it was Abu Zubaydah, al-Qaida's chief of field operations and a confidant of Osama bin Laden, who revealed a link between the prince and al-Qaida. Captured by American soldiers in Pakistan in March 2002, 6 1/2 months after the Sept. 11 attacks, Zubaydah was given sodium pentothal to make him talkative and questioned by Arab-Americans posing as Saudi interrogators.

From memory, Zubaydah provided the home phone and cell phone number of a Saudi royal family member and suggested his interrogators make the call.

"He will tell you what to do," Zubaydah said, according to Posner's account.

The phone numbers reportedly belonged to Prince Ahmed bin Salman.
Unger relies on Posner's account, along with his own followup investigation. He claims that the Prince's role was to keep terror out of Saudi Arabia, rather than to fund terror.

Zubayday allegedly named 2 other intermediaries and all 3 died within 4 months, one from a car crash, one from dehydration in the desert, and the Prince allegedly of a heart attack.

Some circumstantial evidence is also noted:
According to Unger's book, the late prince's father, Prince Salman bin Abdul Aziz, is "the powerful governor of Riyadh [Saudi Arabia] who had worked closely with Osama bin Laden ... during the Afghanistan war" with the Soviet Union in the 1980s.
What to make of these Kentucky connections? From the O'Keefe story:
"In the book, I don't draw conclusions," Posner agrees. "I don't have the final answers. I'm still trying to chase this down. But I think what this means is we need a more serious investigation of the Saudis. We need a push by the Bush administration to get more answers."
Maybe we'll hear more when Michael Moore's movie starts attracting US press attention.

Update: Snitch had this story in April and interviewed Unger. He says that the Prince was definitely on the manifest for the September 13, 2001, flight that left the country filled with Saudis. He also says that at least some of the round-up flights were supposed to have been grounded. The Tampa-Lexington flight, among others, has never been acknowledged by the Bush administration (including the FAA and FBI).

Time magazine apparently had the story about the Zubaydah interrogation -- and Steve Gilliard excerpted a lot of it on his news blog.



Ideas

The blogosphere is a great place for people to test ideas. Granted, a lot of blog entries merely link without comment to interesting news stories, but a fair number of posts come with analysis and critique, the bedrocks of political debate.

I decided to do a short run around the blogosphere -- pointing to interesting points bloggers have made, or ideas that merit more consideration. Some are more serious than others. At the moment, most bloggers I read regularly are focusing on either the so-called "torture memos" or the legacy of Ronald Reagan.

I haven't yet blogged about the most recent development in the prisoner scandal, the leaked memos, but others have. Mark A.R. Kleiman asks the key question about the Bush administration's latest position:
Let me be sure I have this straight: we're not torturing anyone, but revealing our legal position on what we can and can't do would weaken the fight against terror?
Phil Carter explains that a key torture memo's claim that "authority to set aside the laws is 'inherent in the president'" directly conflicts with the Constitution's "affirmative duty [on the President] to enforce the laws" (found in Article II, Section 3).

In passing, Gary Sauer-Thompson equates prison torture with terror. Given that hundreds of apparently innocent people were released from those prisons, this seems like a legitimate point.

Chris at Explananda fears that administration officials will not be held to account for their alleged misdeeds, and that this reflects the sad fact that a "separate law applies to people in power."

Because Bush's lawyers (no, not his private attorney consulted about the Plame affair) are talking about the so-called "Nuremberg defense" (just following orders), Digby has this perfect quip:
George W. Bush has been making comparisons between the "War On Terrorism" and WWII. I didn't realize that in this sequel we were the Germans.
Naturally, quite a lot of bloggers have been thinking about the Reagan legacy.

Dwight Meredith of Wampum has a long, but well-done, post on "Ranking the Reagan Economy." I don't want to spoil his conclusion, but let's just say some other (recently) re-elected presidents did better. Politus found a great quote that puts Bush's economy in perspective.

Actually, since Kevin Hayden of the American Street already did a nice run around the blogosphere about Reagan, I'll cut this short. Hayden has several of Reagan's less famous quotes:
In retaking People's Park from the Berkeley students, Reagan sent in the National Guard, proclaiming: "If it takes a bloodbath, let's get it over with!"

"The state of California has no business subsidizing intellectual curiosity." was another thing he actually said as governor.

Another Reagan quote of note: "History teaches that war begins when governments believe the price of aggression is cheap."
Tex at UnFairWitness had a short post on "The Reagan loonie?" that just might create a bipartisan consensus for a Reagan coin.

Happy reading.

Tuesday, June 08, 2004

Reagan

I don't have much to say about the passing of Ronald Wilson Reagan. Instead, I'll write a little bit about how his life influenced mine (it is my blog after all).

My graduate career (and, thus, my professional life) started in 1983, well into the Reagan presidency.

Ultimately, my dissertation was inspired by the Reagan administration. My thesis focused primarily on missile defenses (and the importance of public audiences in shaping policy), as did a few of my earliest journal articles. One piece, in fact, specifically analyzed a speech delivered by Reagan on March 23, 1983. At the time, this was known as the "Star Wars" speech, even though the President didn't use that term.

In fact, the average listener probably wasn't exactly sure what Reagan was discussing when he turned somewhat ambiguously to strategic defenses. Reagan included the relevant paragraphs at the end of a lengthy speech on "Defense and National Security." Throughout the overwhelming majority of this speech, Reagan outlined the need for elevated defense spending. As you might expect, a great deal of the speech was dedicated to outlining Soviet weaponry. That's how the arms race was justified in the US: they build, so we have to build.

Of course, as in the recent debate about Iraqi WMD, the threats were often inflated.

Here's an interesting quote from the March 23, 1983, speech that might have been useful in the 2002-2003 Iraq debate:
The defense policy of the United States is based on a simple premise: The United States does not start fights. We will never be an aggressor.
Then again, America's actions have long been justified as defensive even when many observers might see them as offensive. In this address, Reagan mentioned US concerns about an airfield in Grenada with a 10,000-foot runway built with Soviet financing. In October of that year, American forces invaded Grenada and deposed Maurice Bishop.

Perhaps you saw the mediocre Clint Eastwood movie about it.

Anyway, back to the March 23 speech. Reagan was accusing the Soviets of "acquiring what can only be considered an offensive military force" and calling for greater American defense forces to counter it. Ultimately, he proposed strategic defenses:
After careful consultation with my advisers, including the Joint Chiefs of Staff, I believe there is a way. Let me share with you a vision of the future which offers hope. It is that we embark on a program to counter the awesome Soviet missile threat with measures that are defensive. Let us turn to the very strengths in technology that spawned our great industrial base and that have given us the quality of life we enjoy today.

What if free people could live secure in the knowledge that their security did not rest upon the threat of instant U.S. retaliation to deter a Soviet attack, that we could intercept and destroy strategic ballistic missiles before they reached our own soil or that of our allies?

I know this is a formidable, technical task, one that may not be accomplished before the end of this century. Yet, current technology has attained a level of sophistication where it's reasonable for us to begin this effort. It will take years, probably decades of effort on many fronts. There will be failures and setbacks, just as there will be successes and breakthroughs. And as we proceed, we must remain constant in preserving the nuclear deterrent and maintaining a solid capability for flexible response. But isn't it worth every investment necessary to free the world from the threat of nuclear war? We know it is.

In the meantime, we will continue to pursue real reductions in nuclear arms, negotiating from a position of strength that can be ensured only by modernizing our strategic forces. At the same time, we must take steps to reduce the risk of a conventional military conflict escalating to nuclear war by improving our nonnuclear capabilities.

America does possess -- now -- the technologies to attain very significant improvements in the effectiveness of our conventional, nonnuclear forces. Proceeding boldly with these new technologies, we can significantly reduce any incentive that the Soviet Union may have to threaten attack against the United States or its allies.

As we pursue our goal of defensive technologies, we recognize that our allies rely upon our strategic offensive power to deter attacks against them. Their vital interests and ours are inextricably linked. Their safety and ours are one. And no change in technology can or will alter that reality. We must and shall continue to honor our commitments.

I clearly recognize that defensive systems have limitations and raise certain problems and ambiguities. If paired with offensive systems, they can be viewed as fostering an aggressive policy, and no one wants that. But with these considerations firmly in mind, I call upon the scientific community in our country, those who gave us nuclear weapons, to turn their great talents now to the cause of mankind and world peace, to give us the means of rendering these nuclear weapons impotent and obsolete.

Tonight, consistent with our obligations of the ABM treaty and recognizing the need for closer consultation with our allies, I'm taking an important first step. I am directing a comprehensive and intensive effort to define a long-term research and development program to begin to achieve our ultimate goal of eliminating the threat posed by strategic nuclear missiles. This could pave the way for arms control measures to eliminate the weapons themselves. We seek neither military superiority nor political advantage. Our only purpose -- one all people share -- is to search for ways to reduce the danger of nuclear war.

My fellow Americans, tonight we're launching an effort which holds the promise of changing the course of human history. There will be risks, and results take time. But I believe we can do it. As we cross this threshold, I ask for your prayers and your support.

Thank you, good night, and God bless you.
Despite what Christopher Hitchens wrote at Salon, Reagan did not end this speech "with the lame quip, 'May the force be with you.'"

In fact, Reagan apparently used that line when astronauts were about to fly in the space shuttle, which actually seems appropriate. Even Reagan's "evil empire" speech does not use the phrase inspired by that movie. Reagan referred to totalitarians as evil, but did not utter the word "empire" in the address.

And it was Reagan's foes who called the program inspired by the March 23 speech "Star Wars." The administration called the program the Strategic Defense Initiative.

In short, the Reagan legacy is complicated; informed (like the former President was) by myths and half-truths. My coauthored journal article about the "Star Wars" speech argued that it was an excellent response to the nuclear freeze movement, but a poor way to initiate defense policy given the negative reaction that could be expected from significant numbers of "defense intellectuals" and allies. After all, supporters had been proposing "anti-missile missiles" since the Soviets launched Sputnik -- typically in the face of significant opposition that was able for decades to hold off repeated efforts to secure deployment.

Ultimately, the SDI program also died before deployment, but when urged to do so by political leaders, the US body politic still regularly engages in debates about whether to deploy missile defenses. One of the Clinton-Gingrich confrontations that closed the government was partly about the appropriation of funds to deploy missile defenses. Donald Rumsfeld may have been named Bush's Defense Secretary because of his misleading Commission Report that inflated missile threats from proliferants.

You get the idea.

I ultimately broadened my scholarly interests by turning to questions about global environmental politics and international institutions. But the public debates about threats in the nuclear age, and the appropriate US responses to them, are ongoing and interesting.

Sunday, June 06, 2004

Draft alert!

No, not that draft. Today is major league baseball's amateur draft.

And teams face an interesting, 9/11-related, globalization dilemma.

Basically, baseball franchises face a shortage of certain kinds of work visas for foreigners looking to find positions in the US. In Canada, home to a number of good amateur baseball prospects, this is a noteworthy problem::
Up until this year getting the required visa - an H2B visa, issued to a wide variety of seasonal workers - hadn't been an issue. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services issue up to 66,000 of them per year, usually more than enough.

But growth in the tourism and landscaping industries has led to increased demand for H2Bs and last year the United States granted 13,000 over its quota. Amid the security-conscious environment post September 11th, the government vowed to be more vigilant in keeping tabs on the number of visas handed out.

This year the limit was met March 10 and the State Department said no more would be available for 2004.
I should note that this does not immediately affect Latin American players (who face their own problems) since they are not subject to baseball's amateur draft.

While only about a quarter of major leaguers are non-US born, nearly half of all minor league players are foreign. So this is a big deal because drafted players virtually always start their careers in the minors:
The quota on the visa foreigners require to play minor-league ball in the United States has already been met for 2004, meaning Canucks chosen Monday and Tuesday won't be able to start their pro careers down south this season. That has some clubs rethinking their draft-day plans when it comes to Canadians...
This 9/ll problem has been bubbling for a long time:
Major league teams began making their applications for 2004 visas last October and it's a good thing they got started early. The 30 teams received a total of 1,236 H2Bs and had they not been on the ball, their foreign minor-league prospects might have been forced to sit out the season (there was never a threat to foreign big-leaguers, who receive P1 visas reserved for elite athletes and entertainers).
Sure, it's not high priority news, but it is interesting to me...and security-related.

Plus, you know, I taught a course on "Globalization and Baseball" just last fall.


Proliferation of Hypocrisy

Friday, I blogged about the Proliferation Security Initiative.

Clearly, since 9/11, administration figures have worried openly about "mushroom clouds" emanating from Iraq, Iran's nuclear status, etc.

Yet, despite its rhetoric, the Bush administration's actions on nuclear proliferation are quite hypocritical.

For example, consider an essay web-published today by Scott Lynch, communications director for Peace Action, "Bush's Nuclear Hypocrisy Encourages Proliferation." In his piece, Lynch writes that the Bush administration is pursuing a "do as I say, not as I do" nuclear weapons policy that means the US is "ramped-up for a nuke building bender."

The US is seeking so-called bunker busters and low-yield nuclear weapons that will be more "usable" and task-oriented. Bush is also pushing legislation that would reduce the preparation time required for the US to again conduct nuclear tests from 36 months to 18 months.

Back in February, Robert Jensen of the University of Texas wrote a piece with a similar title, "Bush’s nuclear hypocrisy." As I have before, Jensen emphasized the failure of the US to comply with Article VI of the Nonproliferation Treaty:
“Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith on effective measures relating to cessation of the nuclear arms race at an early date and to nuclear disarmament, and on a Treaty on general and complete disarmament under strict and effective international control.”
In other words, according to the NPT, the US is supposed to be working towards "general and complete disarmament" rather than new weapons.

Like Lynch, Jenson highlights the bunker buster program.
Jacqueline Cabasso, executive director of the Western States Legal Foundation (a public-interest organization that monitors and analyzes U.S. nuclear-weapons programs) sums it up this way: “The U.S. is spending more money on nuclear-weapons research and development than ever before, giving its nuclear arsenal new military capabilities and elevating the role of nuclear weapons in its aggressive and unilateral ‘national security’ policy.” Cabasso cites ongoing work on such weapons as a “Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator” as clear evidence of U.S. intentions to pursue nuclear weaponry, not work toward its elimination.
Catchy name, eh? There's long been a pseudo-sexual side to naming weapons.

Jensen caught Bush in his own lies: "free societies are societies that don’t develop weapons of mass terror."

Similarly, Andrew Koch of Center for Defense Information (CDI) once argued on the CNN website that the "The US must lead by example." Koch was writing just after the Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests and noted that India often specifically points to US failure to comply with Article VI of the NPT to justify its own decision not to join the anti-nuclear club:
perversely, the United States continues to pursue a hypocritical nuclear policy that encourages others to proliferate. One of several rationales for the Indian tests was to challenge the non-proliferation regime, which New Delhi views as discriminatory. What particularly peeked India's ire was the fact that the nuclear powers have not adequately fulfilled their obligation to move toward nuclear disarmament as promised under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Since the piece was published in 1998, it demonstrates that this is a long-term problem -- worsened by Bush, but bipartison nonetheless.

Earlier this year D. Ravi Kanth published "US hypocrisy on N-proliferation," in the Deccan Herald (which I found out is part of the South Asian Media Net). Kanth pointed out that the US has not only failed to ratify the CTBT, which since the 2000 NPT review conference has been recognized as the next step toward meeting Article VI requirements, but it also refuses to criticize Pakistan for its proliferation -- and, of course, wants to build the new weapons (such as the Penetrator).

These are not merely left-wing talking points. Even Carter administration National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski recognizes that "American policy is the height of hypocrisy." Of course, that piece was published in the Times of India rather than the New York Times. And that's the same hawkish Brzezinski who armed the mujahadeen in Afghanistan before Ronald Reagan ever had the chance. In fact, he armed them 6 months before the Soviets invaded.


Disclosures I worked on a project with Steven Brion-Meisels who is a Board Member at Peace Action. I also interned at CDI back in the summer of '85.

Friday, June 04, 2004

Proliferation Security Initiative

A year ago (May 31, 2003), President Bush announced a Proliferation Security Initiative, which in the State Department's words "is an effort to enhance and expand efforts to prevent the flow of WMD [weapons of mass destruction], their delivery systems, and related materials to and from states and non-state actors of proliferation concern."

Eleven "core" countries initially joined with the US to initiate the PSI, but 60-80 states (reports vary) are currently meeting in Krakow to discuss implementation measures.

Since PSI is "an activity, not an organization," the US isn't seeking formal participation by other states. To the administration, it is multilateralism without pesky bureaucrats.

The original core countries adopted a "Statement of Interdiction Principles" on September 4, 2003. The US State Department claims that more than 50 countries have reviewed the SOPs (their acronym, not mine) and "share" the views expressed. Allegedly, all this is consistent with previous nonproliferation accords.

This seems to be how the PSI is supposed to work:
PSI is not focused on countries but on shipments to states and non-state actors of proliferation concern. Vessels of a state would be boarded only to the extent consistent with national legal authorities and international law.
Countries that challenge the legality of a specific claim can opt out of it. The range of proliferation activity covered is fairly broad:
The P.S.I. calls for its signatory nations to use existing laws and treaties to stop the spread of missiles and weapons parts by boarding suspect ships, raiding factories and asking states to stop suspect flights from entering their airspace.
It's not at all clear to me what happens if a consensual boarding is sought -- and denied. Embedded State Dept. neocon John Bolton seems to be the key US policy person on PSI, and he's got a fairly hawkish take on this issue.

By reading State's FAQ, I've learned that the countries are not going to share intelligence multilaterally (!), but the US will act only when it has a "solid case." Where have we heard that before?

Negative spin: To "enforce" nonproliferation standards (which generally have opt-out clauses) the US may end up employing force in a manner that not 100% consistent with international law. And like the Iraq adventure, states that disagree can just stand on the sidelines and watch.

As VOANews.com has announced, Russia recently agreed to join the PSI core states, bringing the total now to 15. In the past, Russia refused to join PSA because it thought the US would use this as cover to board ships unilaterally in order to search and seize suspicious material.

Leaders are expected to discuss the PSI at this month's G-8 meeting in Georgia. I'll be watching for news.

Thursday, June 03, 2004

Former Debater in the News

A close friend from college (we were both on the debate team at Kansas) is right in the middle of the news about the Enron tapes.

Eric Christensen, a lawyer for a Seattle-area utility (and formerly a lawyer for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission), is quoted several times in this story about how "Enron traders derided users."

Here's one of the juicy quotes transcribed by the utility:
In one transcript, a trader asks about "all the money you guys stole from those poor grandmothers of California."

To which the Enron trader responds, "Yeah, Grandma Millie, man. But she's the one who couldn't figure out how to (expletive) vote on the butterfly ballot."

"Yeah, now she wants her (expletive) money back for all the power you've charged right up -- jammed right up her (expletive) for (expletive) 250 dollars a megawatt-hour," the first trader says.
OK, here's another one, from a different news story:
"He just f---s California," says one Enron employee. "He steals money from California to the tune of about a million."

"Will you rephrase that?" asks a second employee.

"OK, he, um, he arbitrages the California market to the tune of a million bucks or two a day," replies the first.
Eric is also quoted in this story:
"This is the evidence we've all been waiting for. This proves they manipulated the market," said Eric Christensen, a spokesman for the utility.
Eric was a great researcher, even in college. He and his colleagues were certainly determined:
Snohomish County PUD consultants listened to about 1,000 hours of phone conversations, which were recorded in August, September and December 2000 and January 2001, said Eric Christensen, assistant general council for the PUD. Additional conversations likely took place by cell phones, online instant messaging and Internet chat rooms, which traders used to conduct business.

The PUD filed transcripts of about 80 phone conversations with the FERC, Christensen said. The utility made nine of the conversations public online.
Way to go Eric!

Now, does Enron have any assets?


Note: In his senior year, Eric debated with Jim Reed, who is now something of a health law expert.

Photo memories -- with new captions

The water is rising and the mice are jumping off the ship.

Yesterday, the President denied having "had any extensive conversations" with INC leader Ahmed Chalabi, now being investigated as an Iranian spy.

Atrios easily punctured this lie. Bush previously said he met privately with Chalabi in the Oval office and in Iraq on his Thanksgiving visit. And, of course, Chalabi was Laura Bush's guest at the State of the Union address.

Perhaps more importantly, for a variety of reasons (some legal), Dick Cheney acknowledged in December 2001 that he had met frequently with Chalabi:
"THE VICE PRESIDENT: The policy towards Iraq clearly is going to evolve over time. But they remain very much an area of concern for us because of the threat that Saddam Hussein has represented in the past and does in the future.

In the course of addressing that threat, we'll want to work with our friends and allies in the region. We'll want to work, I think, with the Iraqi opposition, with the Iraqi National Congress. I personally met with Mr. Chalabi myself in years past, and I would expect that they will be a part of a continuing effort as we think about how best to deal with that threat."
Atrios posted a photo of Bush posing with Chalabi, and others have posted the photo of Chalabi sitting near Laura Bush -- so I decided to fill out this little photo book.

Remember, images matter.



I found these with minimal effort:



That's Ahmed Chalabi with Senator Trent Lott (R-MS).

Chalabi and Senator Jesse Helms (R-NC)

Chalabi with Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA).


That's Chalabi with "dictator of Iraq" Paul Bremer looking at the coffin of the UN's Vieira de Mello (who died in the bombing of the UN headquarters last year).

In case you missed it, current UN envoy to Iraq Lakhdar Brahimi just called Bremer the "dictator of Iraq," so this entire mess is becoming more colorful. As are the photo captions.

Oh, and war enthusiast Fouad Ajami of Johns Hopkins wrote this in the New York Times in response to Bush's recent War College address:
"Let’s face it: Iraq is not going to be America’s showcase in the Arab-Muslim world The president's insistence that he had sent American troops to Iraq to make its people free, "not to make them American" is now — painfully — beside the point. The unspoken message of the speech was that no great American project is being hatched in Iraq. If some of the war's planners had thought that Iraq would be an ideal base for American primacy in the Persian Gulf, a beacon from which to spread democracy and reason throughout the Arab world, that notion has clearly been set aside.

...We shall not chase the Syrian dictator to a spider hole, nor will we sack the Iranian theocracy."
Anyone know of other images I could add to the gallery?


Update: I found a website that has photos of Chalabi with Donald Rumsfeld, Colin Powell, Paul Wolfowitz, and James Woolsey.





Wednesday, June 02, 2004

Working Vacation in Europe

George W. Bush is about to have a busy June, focused on foreign policy. First, Bush is off this weekend to Italy (where Silvio Berlusconi still supports the war in Iraq) and France (Jacques Chirac dooesn't, but the French, wanting to play nice, have banned protests in Paris while Bush is visiting) to meet with foreign leaders and the Pope. Bush will give a speech on D-Day, commemorating the 60th anniversary.

In short, it will be one photo op after another.

Bush is going back to Europe again at the end of the month (Ireland and Turkey) for a NATO meeting. Sandwiched in between, the President hosts a number of G-8 leaders in Georgia.

Frankly, I doubt these meetings will mean much for US-European relations. I expect the President to make some broad conciliatory statements, emphasizing how important European relations are to the US — and how valuable allied cooperation could be in Iraq and in the wider war on terror. But the Europeans won't be influenced a great deal by these words and are quite unlikely to offer greater material support for Iraq. Everyone will embrace the ideal of democracy, but the states disagree a great deal about how to achieve that.

Indeed, Chirac has invited German chancellor Gerhard Schröder and Russian leader Vladimir Putin to the D-Day festivities -- and none supported the war. If Bush tries to compare post-war Europe to post-war Iraq, these guys can frown in unison.

Philip Gordon of Brookings has it about right:
"The Europeans have already dropped Bush and they are now waiting out the election. They do not want to see a strategic failure for America in Iraq, because that would be very bad for them. But at the same time they don't want to do anything that confirms the Bush approach to the world."
Who does?

I do think Bush is going to get a domestic political boost from this month's activities by "acting presidential." When a President is abroad making state visits, he represents the entire country. Most Americans don't want to hear that protesters in other countries (especially France) are unhappy. The focus is going to be on foreign policy and that's usually good news for any president — especially one trying to downplay unpleasant domestic news.
"There's no question this will give him a bump in the polls," said Charles Kupchan, director of European studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. "There will be lots of photo opportunities and lots of statements of solidarity."
Of course, Bush could be pushed below the fold by further bad news in Iraq.

Basically, these trips and meetings represent a great opportunity for the White House to control the political agenda, focusing attention on points they want to disseminate. Any progress on European relations would be gravy.

Tuesday, June 01, 2004

Sons of the pioneers



By now, I'm sure everyone has read the stories about the way the Bush administration selected people to work in Iraq. In a profile of "11 jet-lagged, sweaty, idealistic volunteers who had come to help Iraq along the road to democracy," the Washington Post's Ariana Eunjung Cha revealed that all 11 had posted their resume to the ultra-conservative Heritage Foundation's website.

A quote from an administration official made it clear that this was not mere coincidence.

Cha gave a lot of attention to Simone Ledeen, daughter of neocon journalist (and Iran-contra figure) Michael Ledeen. Anyone following the news over the past year or so often sees references, in fact, to young and politically connected Republicans from prominent families working on the ground in Iraq.

So why am I mentioning this? Well, I suggest that the left side of the blogosphere start calling these "kids" the "sons of the pioneers."

George W. Bush, of course, calls his $100,000-level fundraisers "Pioneers." If you missed it, Rolling Stone profiled some of them back in April.

Sons of the Pioneers. Sounds good to me.

It's a catchy phrase that people already vaguely know**, and it readily conveys the political meaning.

As a bonus, it suggests the "cowboy" nature of the Bush presidency, and all that it entails.



**Note: You can find the bio of the original Sons of the Pioneers from the All Music Guide as featured on Country Music Television's website:
The Sons of the Pioneers were the foremost vocal and instrumental group in western music, and the definitive group specializing in cowboy songs, setting the standard for every group that has come since.
The group has been together 70 years, doing the same classic western music, and finding replacements from among the "family" of similar musicians.