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Showing posts with label sports. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sports. Show all posts

Saturday, April 13, 2024

2024A Louisville Sluggers

This post is going to highlight the fantasy baseball team I've built for the first half (A) season of the OBFLB (Original Bitnet Fantasy Baseball League). As I've explained before, this is a 24 team league I joined in 1991 and we play 2 seasons each year, divided basically by the all-star break. There is an annual mid-year draft.

It features head-to-head competition in 10 categories. Five are offensive -- HR, steals, plate appearances, on base percentage, and "runs produced" (runs + RBI / ABs). Five are pitching -- ERA, WHIP, wins, innings pitched, and 2xSaves plus Holds. 

I'll note the 8 players I retained from last year in red and will indicate draft rounds for the other players. 

Lineup

C Will Smith LAD
1B Vinnie Pasquantino KC
2B Isaac Paredes TB
3B Gunnar Henderson BAL
SS Anthony Volpe NYY
OF Ronald Acuna ATL
OF Kerry Carpenter DET (10)
OF Will Benson CIN (14)
DH Jordan Westburg BAL (13)

Bench

C Freddy Fermin KC (26)
2B Michael Massey KC (23)
UT Zack McKinstry DET (21)
OF Trent Grisham (20)
OF Roman Anthony BOS (22)
OF Jason Hayward LAD (24)
OF Estevan Florial CLE (28)

Pitching

SP Sonny Gray STL
SP Nick Pivetta BOS (9)
SP Seth Lugo KC (11)
SP Luis Severino NYM (12)
SP Reynaldo Lopez ATL (15)
SP Clarke Schmidt NYY (16)
SP Keaton Winn SF (19)
SP Matt Waldron SD (25)
RP Adbert Alzolay CHC 
RP Hunter Harvey WAS (17)
RP Jason Adam TB (18)
RP Steven Wilson CHX (27)

My 2023B season team won the championship, which I'm fairly sure I did not previously note on the blog. I had also won in 2021 A (linked above) and the only carryovers from that team are C W. Smith, OF Acuna, and SP Gray. 

In total, the Sluggers have won 11 World Series (in 14 appearances) competing in 65 championship seasons. Another team (the Men of LA) has 10 titles in 16 appearances, but the teams have never met in the World Series. We have met at least once in the playoffs when Men of LA beat the Sluggers in 2021 B. Prior to 2012 the playoff matchups are not clearly delineated in the records.   


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Wednesday, June 14, 2023

Pittsburgh

A few weeks ago we drove to Pittsburgh and took in a Pirates day game against the Colorado Rockies and then visited the Andy Warhol museum the next day. We also visited the Southern Tier brewpub in this same area.




I took a good number of photos at both locations. PNC Park is very nice and the outside area is particularly striking, with statues of Roberto Clemente, Bill Mazeroski, Willie Stargell, and Honus Wagner encircling the facility. When we got back from our travels, I read the recent Clemente bio by David Maraniss, which I highly recommend.




They also have oversize baseball markers commemorating all the Hall of Famers who played in Pittsburgh, including a good number of Negro League players. Earlier this year I read Satchell Paige's  autobiography -- it was quite entertaining.







The Warhol Museum is near PNC Park and I really enjoyed seeing the exhibits. We were one day early and thus missed a special exhibit featuring Warhol and the Velvet Underground. Warhol is sometimes credited with discovering the VU and was said to be their manager, though promoter might have been a more accurate term.

Most of one floor was devoted to Warhol's portraits, which was an especially interesting commentary on the 1970s. As for his pop art, I've seen more famous of his works in other museums in the US, Europe, or Canada.  But these were some good exemplars:






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Thursday, April 04, 2019

Google Trends: Zombie Edition

I'm giving a couple of talks next week at Wofford College. One of them will be about my 2017 article "Laughing off a Zombie Apocalypse: The Value of Comedic and Satirical Narratives." Preparing for the talk, I became curious as to the continued popularity of zombies. Scholars who study popular culture have to be on the alert for changes that might leave them studying an unpopular phenomenon.

I know "The Walking Dead" (which started in 2010) is still on television, though I have not watched it in several years. Likewise, AMC has a spinoff series called "Fear the Walking Dead" and other zombie-themed shows are still on TV: "iZombie" (I have viewed season 1 and part of 2) and "Santa Clarita Diet." Today, I discovered that the long-promised sequel to "Zombieland" is set for release this October.

This would seem to indicate that the undead are not yet dead in popular culture.

For less anecdotal evidence, I turned to Google Trends. In case you are not familar with that phrase, it is a Google application that measures "Interest over time" in particular search terms. Consider this chart of searches for "zombie" since April 4, 2007 (12 years ago today):


Google says that "Numbers represent search interest relative to the highest point on the chart for the given region and time. A value of 100 is the peak popularity for the term. A value of 50 means that the term is half as popular. A score of 0 means there was not enough data for this term."

This means that the peak time for popular interest in zombies was June 2012. There's been a steady decline, which seems worrisome.

For relative interest, I added the search term "Barack Obama"and the results were somewhat startling.


So, basically, people have for many years searched more frequently for information about zombies than they have for the President of the US through eight of those twelve years. Obama's rise to fame early in this period is the only real exception. Did people in the US take him for granted?

I added the search terms "Tom Brady" and "Beyoncé" to get a feel for relative differences with a prominent athlete and pop singer. The results are perhaps not surprising, at least to me:


Beyoncé is generally the most popular through this time, but Tom Brady and zombie occasionally emerge. Again, Obama was very popular when he burst on the presidential politics scene.

Then, I wondered how would this chart look if I added "Donald Trump"?


Trump's peak when he emerged as a presidential candidate set incredible new heights of popular attention. And since that date, Trump has maintained his lead over the other terms by a decent margin.

I played around with assorted celebrities, products, and ideas and discovered that Trump's peak isn't necessarily so impressive when considered against various non-political terms. For example, consider amazon, sex, and iPhone:


Through much of the period, zombie and Trump are neck-and-neck. Neither of those search terms are ever as popular as amazon, sex, or iPhone through this twelve year period.  It's not close.

Not all of that is good news.


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Friday, March 22, 2019

NCAA Tournament

I am very pleased the Kansas Jayhawks men's basketball team won its opening round NCAA tournament game by 34 points yesterday, against a Northeastern team that some experts touted as a sleeper pick for the second weekend. Northeastern attempted a lot of 3-point baskets, but did not make them at an efficient rate. When Kansas has lost this year, often by double digits, it has frequently been because of hot early game 3-point shooting by their opponents.

Indeed, because of the troubles Kansas has faced this season, I have picked the team to lose Saturday to Auburn. Obviously, I would be pleased to be wrong about that prediction.

Though Auburn had a very close game against New Mexico State, note that Kansas also had a difficult game against the same team back in December.

That December game was played in KC at the Sprint Center, which is technically a neutral court, but the crowd obviously and overwhelmingly favored Kansas in that venue. At the time, Udoka Azubuike, the 7'1" Kansas center, was sitting out his first game of the season with a relatively minor sprained ankle. He would soon return and play in two additional games before going down for the season with a much more serious injury -- a torn ligament in his hand. Azubuike last played in a victory over Oklahoma on January 2. At the time, Kansas was 12-1 and ranked 5th in the country.

In that December game versus New Mexico State, sharp-shooting senior guard Lagerald Vick, who eventually left the team, was being punished by coach Bill Self for a "really bad Thursday" (the date of the previous practice) and missed his second consecutive start. Vick ultimately left the team under mysterious circumstances after the February 5 loss to rival Kansas State. In the 10 games after Azubuike was lost for the season but before Vick left the team, Kansas was only 5-5. All of the losses occurred on the road and three were against NCAA tournament teams, but the squad did not look like an elite team. Rather than provide poise and leadership, Vick often made costly turnovers and attempted dubious shots, which likely frustrated the coach a great deal.

Since Vick's departure, Kansas has gone 9-3 starting four talented Freshmen. The three losses were to NCAA tournament teams, two on the road and one in KC during the Big 12 tournament final.

Aside from some dark clouds that continue to linger on the horizon, the near future would appear to be bright for Kansas basketball. No active Kansas player participated in senior day and most scouts say the team does not have any likely first round 2019 NBA draft picks. Some services say that Azubuike and second team all-American Dedrick Lawson might be late second round picks should they decide to declare early for the NBA draft. If all the freshmen return, the team will have the experience and talent sufficient to have a very good season next year.

My 2019 NCAA bracket has Duke beating Kentucky in the final, with Texas Tech and Virginia as the other teams in the Final Four. When I filled out the form, I didn't really consider the injury to Kentucky's best player, which likely would have caused me to pick UNC from the Midwest region.


I'm in a couple of local pools (scored by ESPN, CBS) that do not align perfectly with these choices. But they are close. In one of those pools, I picked Saint Mary's over Villanova, for example.

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Saturday, February 10, 2018

More on Athletic Salaries at Louisville

University of Louisville Interim Athletic Director Vince Tyra cut his own salary this past week -- from $1.2 million a year to "only" $850,000. Sports columnist Tim Sullivan notes that this might make him more likely to land the permanent AD job. Readers may remember I commented about the $1.2 million salary already.

In any case, that first linked story above included Tyra's reasoning for slicing his own salary to $850K:
Tyra said that in examining the athletic department's costs, he looked up the salaries of the other athletic directors in the ACC and averaged the top three, which generated $854,000. As a result, he said he asked to have his salary lowered from $1.2 million to $850,000.
Today, I had a back-and-forth discussion with Sullivan on twitter concerning Tyra's status and pay:
When the University was increasing faculty salaries a couple of years ago, no one was paid a new salary obtained by averaging the three highest paid comparable position salaries in the ACC. For one thing, UofL salaries were far under baseline school comparisons and the increase only resulted in salaries that were slightly better than before. Faculty in Arts and Sciences are still paid well below their peers -- especially compared to the highest paid ACC faculty, which tend to be at the private schools. And of course those were the last raises faculty received unless they were promoted in rank -- or managed to get a competing job offer.

Sullivan also pointed out that my thinking didn't account for Tyra's business experience. He asked, via twitter, "If Bill Gates wanted the job, would you pay him as an entry level employee?"

I replied:

Sullivan replied to my first question by linking to a 2010 NY Times article noting that a number of schools have hired ADs from business.

As for the market value of the ADs, I found this:
So $850,000 per year for a novice AD still seems outrageous to me. I know the data is 4+ years old, but consider this quote from the article: "many of them are paid like CEOs, with many making salaries in the high six figures. A handful even make more than $1 million a year."

Again: Many paid like CEOs. Many in high 6 figures. A handful over a million.

Yet, that has been Vince Tyra's starting salary level.

College Sports at UofL remain broken.


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Thursday, January 25, 2018

Anyone want a job paying at least $100K per month?

Today, the Louisville Courier Journal tweeted this story:

From my personal twitter account, I replied:

That sort of set me off...but I started replying from my professional account:



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Friday, June 30, 2017

Lansing Lugnuts

While on vacation last week, my spouse and I managed to take in a baseball game in Lansing. We've been vacationing in Michigan for many years, but we have not attended a baseball game since 2004. We previously took our children to White Caps games in Grand Rapids -- and the kids received free caps!

There was not much of a crowd Monday, June 26, despite it being "Dog Days of Summer" night (dogs entered for free with their owners). It was a bit cool for late June baseball -- 66 degrees for the first pitch. In any case, we got to see two of Toronto's top hitting prospects. Both are sons of former major league players.

Bo Bichette (son of Dante) is a shortstop hitting about .400. In the picture below, he drove in the first run of the game in his first plate appearance. I'm glad I snapped quickly as he swung on the first pitch, which he also did in his next PA. Later in the game, he struck out and then was also called for interference -- a runner attempting to steal second base on his swing was also called out. Bichette has a quick bat, but did not seem to be a patient or controlled hitter.


Vlad Guerrero Jr. (son of Vlad) is listed as a third baseman (and played the hot corner in this game), but looks to be destined for the opposite corner given his build. He is also having a very good offensive season and some analysts believe he will be in the majors before he is 21. My spouse and I saw Guerrero's father play in Montreal in June 2001 when we were in that great city celebrating our 10th wedding anniversary during their annual jazz festival. Vlad Jr. would have been 2 at the time. Both he and Bichette are younger than our daughters who did not travel with us to either Montreal or Lansing.


A couple of other top Jays prospects were also in the game. Outfielders J.B. Woodman (2016 round 2 draft pick) and Joshua Palacios (2016 round 4 pick) were a combined 1-for-8 in the game with 3 strikeouts. Palacios led off with a hit in the first inning and scored the game's first run.

The game ended 4-3 for the home team as Guerrero led off the bottom of the 9th with a single and advanced to second on a wild pitch. A pinch runner moved to third on an infield out. Then, the Bowling Green Hot Rods elected to walk the next two batters intentionally. After a strikeout, a relatively new member of the Lugnuts, catcher Javier Hernandez ended the game with a walk-off single. He was mobbed by his teammates.

Tampa Rays infield prospect (playing 3B Monday) Adrian Rondon was 0-for-4 in the game with two strikeouts. Outfielder speedster and 2015 Rays #1 draft pick Garrett Whitley was 0-for-2 with a walk. The Rays #1 draft pick from 2016, infielder Josh Lowe, hit a 3-run homer in the 8th inning to tie a game that had been 3-0.

Game Notes: When Hot Rod SS Lucius Fox batted, I tried making Batman references, but no one within ear shot seemed to know what I was talking about....I also tried pig Latin references when Mitch Nay batted, but....A local Michigan SABR member sat just behind us. He mentioned writing bios for the SABR bio project and traveling to various minor league parks (including Slugger Field). Unfortunately, we didn't talk long and I don't get his name....We had great seats right behind home plate, but probably could have sat about anywhere for less than the $12 per seat that we paid. The stadium was really empty....For a couple of innings, we sat in the leftfield restaurant Good Hops. The food was good and the tap list looked impressive, but I was not drinking beer thanks to meds I was taking for a summer illness....The ballpark is called Cooley Law School Stadium, which seemed strange. Any other parks named for units within a local University? We drove by the Cooley Law School downtown as we headed to our hotel.

Update July 9: Baseball America has released its midseason top 100 prospects and Rays outfielder Jesus Sanchez is #100. He was 2-for-4 in the game, both singles. He batted 6th in the Hot Rod order and played LF.

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Friday, April 28, 2017

Athletics: Follow the Money

Two weeks ago, I blogged about "Papa" John Schnatter's widely publicized comment that "Until you fix athletics, you cannot fix this university." As I wrote, local journalists and University of Louisville leaders reacted to that remark as if they did not see any problems with Athletics -- and could not conceive of them.

For example, in today's Louisville Courier-Journal, Athletics Board member Bill Stone was quoted offering "praise and support for [Athletics Director Tom] Jurich's leadership and said that other areas of the university are what needs fixing."
'Oh my god, our athletic department is the envy of the country," Stone said. "... We need to put our effort into University Hospital and bring that health care facility back to where it was, where it was the place of choice. That's where we need to spend our attention, not on what works.'
Local radio personality Terry Meiners was also puzzled: “'His comments at the board meeting made zero sense to me,' Meiners said. 'And I mean zero-point-zero.... Everybody’s a little baffled with this one.... I grew up here,' Meiners said. 'I’ve seen the difference in the growth of the school starting Day 1 with Jurich. It’s as if he’s built an entire civilization that we were thirsting for in our community.'”

Despite the apparent bewilderment of local elites, my post referenced some potential areas of concern and linked to several of my previous posts on the topic. Additionally, in the interim between the first story and today's, reporter Tim Sullivan did some research:
Stephen Clark, a tenured professor who has spent 18 years at U of L, perceives Jurich not as “invisible” but “untouchable.” 
Athletics is truly untouchable at this university,” Clark said via e-mail. “It has a different set of rules than all the schools within the university. That goes for things such as ‘conflicts of interest’ particularly. 
“... While athletics means so much to a university, the athletic director and coaches should be under the control of the administration of the university and should operate under parallel guidelines. I don't think that's true at U of L.” 
Student Body President Aaron Vance, whose office entitles him to a seat on the Board of Trustees, seconded Schnatter’s vague statements in a post-meeting tweet: “Papa gets it,” Vance wrote. “Something we have all been thinking here for years.”  
...The U of L Athletics Association operates independently of the university’s general fund and boasts at least 15 straight years of balanced budgets, but its spending patterns could be seen as extravagant in those departments with tightening belts and by those students dealing with rising debt.  Monday, Vance's Twitter feed included a copy of a 2011-12 student government resolution urging U of L to abolish its $50-per-semester student athletics fee.
This week, Athletics is firing back. Yesterday, as the C-J reported, Associate athletics director Kevin Miller "presented an information sheet detailing the amount of money the athletics department provides to the university and vice versa." First, Athletics did recognize that some of their costs are borne by the rest of the University:
According to the document, the athletic department receives a total of $7.344 million in benefits from the university and U of L student fees. Those benefits are $3.263 million in expenses, mostly related to the costs of utilities at the sports facilities; $1.323 million in gender-equity funding; $829,900 in assistance to boost student-athlete academics; and $1.928 million in student fees ($50 per student per semester). 
What about the other side of the relationship?
In turn, athletics reportedly accounts for $30.6 million in tuition, room, board and books for the university due to the presence of student-athletes, managers, spirit groups and the pep band at the school, according to the information sheet.   
The athletic department also provided $4 million to the U of L general fund ($2 million in 2013-14 and $2 million in 2016-17), according to the document.
I have previously mentioned the relatively paltry sums (a few million dollars) that Athletics has provided during particularly difficult years for the University. In reality, those mostly offset the student fees they collect.

The $30.6 million is a more interesting question. Does Athletics subsidize education for all of those students, or does this figure include funds paid by students enrolled in the University? I suspect the latter since the 2014 and 2015 Athletics audit posted online revealed only about $13 million in total athletic scholarships.

So what is missing from the figures Athletics provided yesterday?

First, if the discussion is going to consider revenues collected by one institution thanks to the spending of the other institution's students, then UofL should receive credit for ticket sales to students (and alumni). I haven't seen a breakdown focusing only on students and alums, but UofL athletics collected about $27 million in ticket sales in 2015. For 2016, media reports placed those revenues at just under $30 million.

Not all students or alumni attend games, of course, but many watch those events on television or listen on radio. UofL Athletics has been collecting significant sums from direct TV deals and shared payments from the Atlantic Coast Conference: about $13 million in media rights fees and $7 million from the ACC. That's $20 million more thanks to students, alumni and other fans of the University's teams.

UofL Athletics also collects about $29 million in contributions from donors. As I've blogged previously, some academic research suggests that those donors might otherwise give to the University if Athletics was not asking them for cash.

Finally, there is the matter of the University of Louisville name. When individual UofL athletes depart the campus, a few become stars in the NBA or NFL and help their franchises collect big profits. Presumably, the players are rewarded with lucrative salaries.

However, the largest portion of former UofL basketball players (which is UofL's most lucrative sport) toil in relative anonymity in development leagues or foreign leagues. The players are presumably more skilled and experienced once they leave campus, but they no longer generate nearly the same revenues for their new programs. UofL fans cheer these players, and pay for tickets, sweatshirts, and TV ads, precisely because they wear the cardinal red of the local sports team and perform their feats on local courts and fields.

Does UofL Athletics pay the University for this association? No. Instead, Athletics collected $23 million in licensing and royalties in 2013.

Literally, Athletics rakes in tens of millions of dollars annually thanks to its affiliation with the University.


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Friday, April 14, 2017

Fix UofL Athletics?

At a University of Louisville Board of Trustees meeting earlier this week, Board member John Schnatter -- of Papa John's Pizza fame -- said the following in an open session (link includes live video from the open part of the Board meeting):
“The athletics thing scares me … Until you fix athletics, you cannot fix this university,” Schnatter said.... 
[Interim University President] Postel, in an unrelated presentation during the meeting, said the university has an urgent need for operating cash in case of an emergency. 
Schnatter interjected, linking the university’s cash needs to the ongoing expansion of Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium, where the Cards play football. 
“We’re doing this by the skin of our teeth. We’re going to put $60 million in a stadium – by the way, it’s my stadium,” Schnatter said, laughing. “And we’re $5 million over budget and we’ve got 10 days cash on hand.** That’s crazy.”
Much of the reporting about Schnatter's remarks made it seem as if no one understands what he was talking about: "Pressed for plausible explanations of Schnatter’s statements, insiders have spent a lot of time scratching their heads and studying possible scenarios."

In his column in today's sports page, Tim Sullivan speculated about several angles that parallel my own thinking and writing about this topic:
This much, though, is plain: with revenues rising at the top tier of college athletics (by $304 million for the 50 power conference schools in 2015), the quasi-amateur sports arms race strikes more and more observers as obscene. Dollars devoted to attracting recruits and rewarding coaches with ever-glitzier facilities and ever-sweeter pay packages are inconsistent with the experiences of other students and staff and only available because of an athletic program’s affiliation with a specific school
Too often, though, administrators at those schools have little say over whether those dollars might serve some higher purpose somewhere else on campus. Those athletic departments that retain nearly all of the money they generate, often while appropriating student fees and off-loading certain expenses on the university’s general fund, essentially operate in a parallel universe that can be a burden on the rest of the university
If that’s what Papa John is talking about, that’s a subject worth discussing, and one that applies to many major schools. 
University of Louisville, confronting a $48 million budget cut, needs to have this conversation immediately.


** Officials said at the meeting that the University actually now has 35 days of cash on hand -- thanks apparently to a recent hiring freeze accompanied by increased scrutiny on unit spending. Here's a November 2016 press release from Moody's explaining about why this number is important.

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Sunday, March 19, 2017

Hidden history

This past week, during spring break, we had workers in our home stripping wallpaper from the master bedroom, dining room, and stairwell.

Underneath the wallpaper in the lower stairwell, the workers uncovered this message: "Native Dancer 1953." Here's a picture:


I'm curious about this as Native Dancer was a 1953 contender for the Triple Crown. It won the Belmont and Preakness, but lost the Kentucky Derby by "a head." In 22 career starts, Native Dancer won 21 races. Someone even wrote a book about him.

Why did someone scratch that into the wall of our home? Did they lose a big bet? Win a bet? Did they have a more personal connection? Dunno.

The horse was from Maryland, by the way, where I went to graduate school, was bred and owned by a Vanderbilt, and was nicknamed the "Grey Ghost." Wikipedia has these additional pieces of trivia:
"He appeared on the May 31 cover of Time magazine. Many consider the 'Grey Ghost of Sagamore' to have been the first Thoroughbred television star and TV Guide ranked him as a top icon of the era....In the Associated Press rankings of the greatest racehorses of the 20th century, he was ranked #3, tied with Citation, behind only Man o' War and Secretariat."


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Saturday, March 26, 2016

2016 NCAA Tournament

I'm going to the Kansas game tonight versus Villanova (look for me by the upper deck rail, across from the Kansas bench). Rock Chalk! I also attended the game against Maryland Thursday night. Since the tickets were for the entire "session," that meant entry also to see Villanova defeat Miami. Handily.


Here are a couple of pictures from my seat Thursday. The first is halftime of game one, the second is during the introductions for game 2:




My NCAA pool brackets didn't go well this year, primarily because of my faith in Michigan State and insufficient appreciation for the ACC:


Obviously, if Kansas wins the tournament, I'll move up a bit in my pools.



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Thursday, March 26, 2015

2015 NCAA Tournament

I filled out a number of brackets this year, most forecasting the University of Kentucky to win the men's college national basketball championship. Unfortunately, I think that was and is the safest prediction.

Here are my only two entries in (different) pools that return cash from my friends and/or colleagues. I entered some other national competitions with microscopic chances of winning money from large prize pools. My chances in those pools is now essentially zero and was never very high. I did pick against Kentucky in some of those. Typically, I picked Arizona over UK since they are viewed as the nation's second best team.

This entry features Arizona in the Final Four. Also, I had West Virginia beating Maryland and Michigan State beating Virginia. I inaccurately had Louisville losing to Northern Iowa, so I clearly was betting against the ACC here:



Entry 2 has Arizona in the Final Four, as well as Oklahoma. I accurately forecast Wichita State defeating Kansas in this bracket as well. Once again, I had too little faith in Louisville:



Simply click on those brackets for larger images.


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Friday, June 20, 2014

World Cup Fever

Hans Beinholtz, Germany's Ambassador to the United Nations, is "smitten with the terrible disease of nationalism and competition, the twin seeds of war."



This was originally broadcast on June 12, 2014.

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Tuesday, March 18, 2014

2014 NCAA Tourney

I'll post my bracket here in the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, I encourage readers to join me in the Yahoo! Sports Tournament Pick'em group, "Payne Twitter-Blog Followers": http://y.ahoo.it/YvNzyGof

I'm not sure if I have to provide more detailed sign-in information or not. The name of the private group is "Payne Twitter-Blog Followers" and the group slogan is "Who will defeat Wichita State?" The group, which uses the standard Yahoo! scoring system, can be found among the various groups associated with Kansas. Rock chalk!

Again, I don't know if you need a password to join.  You can apparently sign in with your Facebook or Twitter account -- without a password for the group.

Update: This is my bracket for the blog. In most competitions, I picked Florida to win:



Watch to watch Kansas play? First-round watch-party for Jayhawk fans:

KU vs Eastern Kentucky
Friday, March 21st at 4:10pm ET
Buckhead Bar & Grill
3020 Bardstown Rd
Louisville, KY 40245
502/456-6680

I intend to be there, but I may not arrive until 4:30 to 4:45.

http://www.eatatbuckheads.com/ for directions


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Friday, March 14, 2014

Andrew Wiggins

Andrew Wiggins
Does everyone remember an old joke about Michael Jordan from the 1980s? I first heard it while living in Chicago, but I'm sure it must originate from his North Carolina days:
Question: Who's the one man that can hold Jordan under 20 points per game?
Answer: Dean Smith (coach of Jordan's North Carolina Tar Heels) **
Well, Kansas Jayhawk basketball fans might soon be telling a similar joke about freshman star Andrew Wiggins.
Question: Who's the one man on the court who can hold Wiggins under 20 points per game?  
Answer: Joel Embiid
Embiid, Kansas's star 7' center has missed four games this season thanks to back injuries. In those games, teammate Wiggins has scored almost 100 points, averaging 24.3 per game. In the last two Kansas games, Wiggins has scored over 70 points and hit 21 of 35 shots. He's also averaged 8 rebounds in both games, plus had 5 total blocks to go with 8 steals. He's been a genuine athletic force and has dominated both games for long stretches of time.

KU vs. OK-State 3/1/14
Wiggins's seasonal scoring average is now up to 17.3 points.

Embiid has a stress fracture in his back and may not play again this season; thus, the apparent leap forward by Wiggins is a hopeful development for Kansas.

Wiggins has occasionally looked like the best player on the basketball court in Kansas games this year, but that has been much easier to see this week with Embiid sitting on the bench. Losing the star center doesn't make Kansas a better overall team, but it has highlighted the talent of his more highly recruited teammate.

I'm not saying that Wiggins is ready for the NBA. Frankly, I don't really care except that his presence in Lawrence and on the court would almost surely make Kansas a stronger team next season. I do recall that long-time NBA all-star Paul Pierce was a much better all-around Jayhawk player by his sophomore and junior seasons than he was during his less steady freshman year. I think he's the most comparable Jayhawk to Wiggins in my memory. He is also reminiscent of Ben McLemore, of course, but I thought the talented McLemore left with some holes in his game that another year at Kansas would have helped fix.


** Yes, I know Jordan tallied 20 points per game in his sophomore season at UNC.

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Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Home Field Advantage

At a lazy pace, I've been reading chapters of Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games Are Won by Tobias Moskowitz and L. Jon Wertheim. The book was marketed as Freakonomics for sports fans and there is a lot of truth in that description. The authors use tools of behavioral economics and apply them to various sports-related questions.

For example, a couple of interesting middle chapters try to determine the cause of home field advantage. The authors use various measures to demonstrate that players perform at about the same level in home versus road games; yet, every major sport has some level of home field advantage. This summary is from a presentation Moskowitz delivered for a conference:
"Home field advantage exists in every sport, at all times in history, and in all geographies," said Moskowitz, Fama Family Professor of Finance. 
"And it's remarkably consistent," he added, citing statistics from the five most popular team sports—football, basketball, baseball, soccer, and hockey. In basketball, for example, both NBA and WNBA teams win about two-thirds of the games that they host. In baseball, the home team prevails roughly 54 percent of the time, whether it's an MLB game or played in Japan.
In addition to the consistency of player performance in different venues, they similarly dismiss other possible causes of the advantage, including fan enthusiasm (at least not the conventional interpretation) and travel. Basically, Moskowitz and Wertheim find that referee/umpire behavior is at the root of a significant portion of home field advantage.
"We don't think this is conscious," said Moskowitz, who built on previous studies of soccer referee bias to uncover the connection to home field advantage. The cause, he says, is physchological [sic], and in particular, related to social conformity. 
"Basically, what's happening is referees start to see things the home crowd's way," Moskowitz explained. 
In high-stakes game situations before making a split-second decision, referees seek both information from fans—and their approval. 
I am especially interested in baseball and their results ostensibily explain much of the home field advantage in my favorite sport:
Referee bias becomes more evident, Moskowitz said, as the calls become more ambiguous—borderline strikes in baseball, for instance—and as crowds become more animated and opinionated. 
Fear of blowing a call can cause referees to look for ways to "relieve some of that presure," Moskowitz said, "of having 50,000 screaming fans yell at you." 
And the calls affect the scoreboard. In baseball, Moskowitz examined the strikezone and estimated that visiting teams receive 516 more strikeouts and are issued 195 fewer walks from home plate umpires over the course of a season.
"If you add up how much this is worth in terms of runs scored and everything else, that can explain a sizeable chunk of the home field advantage in baseball," said Moskowitz.
Spoiler alert: the book presents evidence finding that umpire bias disappeared in baseball games in stadiums that major league baseball had rigged to use QuesTec to evaluate umpire performance. Actually, umpire bias didn't disappear -- it moved in the opposite direction and created a substantial road team bias on ball-strike calls. They refer to this evidence as the "smoking gun" and find that other indicators of home field bias did not shift since Ques Tec was only monitoring ball-strike calls at home plate.

However, to me this finding completely deflates the psychological conformity thesis. Umpires must have known about the data finding home field ball-strike bias and then intentionally changed their behavior to correct for the problem. This makes the result conscious.

A few years ago, a study found that umpires were slightly more favorable calling balls and strikes for pitchers of their same race. Again, however, the presence of QuesTec eliminated this bias.

The chapter made me think about other situations that could be compared. If scrutiny from QuesTec diminished umpire bias, what about the extra scrutiny of post-season play in the instant replay era? Does Tim McCarver's commentary work to decrease umpire bias? What about the possible differences in highly scrutinized televised games during the regular season versus obscure games played without so many viewers? The Yankees and Red Sox play many more TV games than do the Royals and Pirates.

If home field noise provides pressure to influence umpires, is there more bias in years when small market teams draw sizeable crowds? How about a study of bias in Twins games during years when the team draws about 1 million fans versus the years when they draw 3 million?

Phil Birnbaum has a strong critique worth reading.


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Tuesday, March 19, 2013

2013 NCAA Tourney

I'll post my bracket here in the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, I encourage readers to join me in the Yahoo! Sports Tournament Pick'em group, "Payne Twitter-Blog Followers": y.ahoo.it/8M1iywX0

I'm not sure if I have to provide more detailed sign-in information or not. The name of the private group is "Payne Twitter-Blog Followers" and the group slogan is "Good luck to Kentucky in the NIT." The group, which uses the standard Yahoo! scoring system, can be found among the various groups associated with Kansas. Rock chalk!

Again, I don't know if you need a password to join, but you may need a Yahoo! account.

Update: Actually, it seems like you can sign in with your Facebook or Google account -- without a password for the group.

This is my bracket for the blog group. I picked Kansas to win the tourney in a different one for ESPN.



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Saturday, December 22, 2012

Coach Pitino on Guns


Rick Pitino in his red suit
Photo credit: Bailey Richards
Today's Courier-Journal had a short piece about an unusual portion of coach Rick Pitino's recent exchange with the press about guns. Pitino, like Jim Boeheim, the Syracuse basketball coach, thinks that gun control should be a very high priority. Here's how Pitino expressed his thoughts:
“The fact that every single person would not want it (gun control) would be a mystery,” Pitino said. ”This is not the beginning of American civilization where we need guns ’cause it’s the wild, wild west. We’re not talking about a hunting license.

“There should not be guns in our society. We all know that."
The University of Louisville basketball coach continued:
If they [elected politicians in DC] were doing what’s right for America, that next day (after the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting), the country would demand gun control. So Jim (Boeheim) is right. We don’t need that in our society. But more important than that, I don’t know how anybody lives that. I don’t know how anybody could close their eyes in those families.
“There can be no good that comes out of that (tragedy), except immediate gun control.... 
We don’t need guns in our society.

Video


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Monday, March 12, 2012

NCAA Hoops

2012 NCAA Tournament Bracket

Like much of America, I spend too much time this month paying attention to "March Madness." With various friends, I partake in a couple of NCAA tournament pools. Hint: if Kansas wins the tournament, I win the pool.

This year, I've created a private group for my Twitter followers and blog readers. Here's the link to this password-protected group.

The password is simple: minerva.

Update: Yahoo closes the competition at 9:15 am PDT Thursday, March 15.


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Sunday, October 30, 2011

IR/Climate blogging

You can find some of my other recent blogging at these websites:

On e-IR, my Climate Politics: IR and the Environment blog, I posted "Is the US a Climate Outlaw?" on October 20. This is part one, which argues that the U.S. can be viewed as an outlaw.

At the Duck of Minerva group IR blog, I blogged "War and the Eurozone" on October 28. The post notes some recent striking rhetoric by European conservatives in power.

Also at the Duck, I blogged "Graduation Rates" on October 26. What can we make of the apparent disparity in graduation rates between athletes and the regular student population?


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