Immigration and Crime

I participated in a panel in my department today on Foreign Policy and the 2024 election. I talked about NATO and climate change -- will these policy issues influence the outcome of the election (maybe climate change) and how will the election results influence policy going forward.

Colleagues talked about Russia/Ukraine, Gaza/Lebanon, China, and immigration.

The last issue was the most controversial as the panelists had the deepest disagreement on this issue during the Q&A.

I feel compelled to fact-check some of the statements that were flying around the room.

Contra to alarming claims, the Biden administration has not had an "open borders" policy . The libertarian Cato Institute, which used to be reliably Republican, agrees. 

Next, immigrants do not commit "most crime" or even a disproportionate share of them.  A number from New York City referenced in today's discussion was essentially made up by "police sources" and reported in the tabloid New York Post.  Meanwhile, a more thorough dive by the NY Times this past February revealed quite different official data from the NYPD:

But police data indicate that there has been no surge in crime since April 2022, when Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas started sending buses of migrants to New York to protest the federal government’s border policy.

More than 170,000 migrants have arrived in the city since then, and it is difficult to know what crime statistics would show had they not come. But as the migrant numbers have increased, the overall crime rate has stayed flat. And, in fact, many major categories of crime — including rape, murder and shootings — have decreased, according to an analysis of the New York Police Department’s month-by-month statistics since April 2022.

The story also quotes (by name) experts: "Jeffrey Butts, director of the Research and Evaluation Center at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice, said that there was no discernible migrant crime wave."

Beyond NYC, the paper also referenced academic studies: 

"In 2023, researchers at Stanford University found that immigrants were imprisoned at lower rates than people born in the United States. In 2020, a University of Wisconsin-Madison study noted that undocumented immigrants in Texas tended to have fewer felony arrests than legal residents."

Going back years, I've referenced stats in my classes from the Anti-Defamation League that reveal much the same information -- immigrants commit fewer crimes that citizens. By the way, links in this quote are in the original and not all of them currently work. The bolded parts are also in the original. 

Study after study has shown that immigrants – regardless of where they are from, what immigration status they hold, and how much education they have completed – are less likely than native-born citizens to commit crimes or become incarcerated.

According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, while the overall percentage of immigrants and the number of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. both increased between 1990 and 2016, the violent crime rate in the U.S. during that time plummeted 48 percent and the property crime rate dropped by 41 percent. More recent population and crime data from the Pew Research Center reveals the continuation of this trend. Studies have consistently found that immigrants are less likely to be incarcerated than native-born Americans and that there is a negative correlation between levels of immigration and crime rates.

Other studies have found that crime rates are lowest in states with the highest immigration growth rates, and that states with larger shares of undocumented immigrants tend to have lower crime rates than states with smaller shares.

The ADL also debunks myths about terrorism, non-citizen voting, public health, etc. Customs and Border Protection also post annual stats. While those numbers undoubtedly reflect growing border encounters, they do not show a great number of criminals coming across the border as a percentage of the total. This is a link to the obviously non-alarming crime numbers from CBP. 

 

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Firsts

Here are 2 striking paragraphs from a (free access) column by Kate Cohen in the WaPo earlier this month:

When [Kamala] Harris was born, 60 years ago this month, women could not serve on a jury in all 50 states. They had to have a male relative sign a business loan. They had no legal recourse against sexual harassment or marital rape. There was no no-fault divorce. They could get the pill, but only if they were married. They could not get a legal abortion unless their lives were in danger, and they could be fired for getting pregnant. They could not be admitted to Harvard College or the U.S. Military Academy or join their local Rotary, Kiwanis or Lions Club. Among the Fortune 500 companies, there was not a single female CEO.

To get to the point where she might become the first female U.S. president, Harris first had to become the first female district attorney of San Francisco, the first female attorney general of California and the first female vice president of the United States.

Many of my students are about 20 years old and do not know about events from 10 or 12 years ago. My guess is that even middle-aged adults won't realize the history mentioned here. 

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Republicans for Harris

In late August more than 235 Republicans who describe themselves as "alumni" of the campaigns or presidencies of George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney published a public letter explaining why they would not be voting for Donald Trump -- and would be voting for Kamala Harris. 

Here's a key part of their message:

Of course, we have plenty of honest, ideological disagreements with Vice President Harris and Gov. Walz. That’s to be expected. The alternative, however, is simply untenable. 

At home, another four years of Donald Trump’s chaotic leadership, this time focused on advancing the dangerous goals of Project 2025, will hurt real, everyday people and weaken our sacred institutions. 

Abroad, democratic movements will be irreparably jeopardized as Trump and his acolyte JD Vance kowtow to dictators like Vladimir Putin while turning their backs on our allies.

Earlier in the message, they blast Trump for lying about the results of the 2020 election and inciting an insurrection. They describe the crowd as "a mob of sore losers and sycophants."

I have an old friend who was part of the HW Bush administration, but I do not see his name on the list of signatories. From a conversation we had in the last year or so, I'm pretty sure he won't be voting for Trump. It's another step to say you are voting for Harris -- and to do so publicly as these individuals have done.

Incidentally, the list does not include Liz or Dick Cheney, though their positions on this are well-known. 

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Trump's Violent Fantasies

Donald Trump is back to his habit of fantasizing about the government (under his leadership) using illegal violence against criminals, immigrants, and/or political opponents. I blogged about this in 2019 when he was in office. I also compiled references to his violent rhetoric dating to the start of his first campaign in 2015 through 2019.

A couple of days ago in Erie, PA, Trump said something that sounded like the plot for "The Purge." It imagined a whole new level of violence:

"You know, if you had one day, like one real rough, nasty day," he said, during a section of the speech about how left-wing politicians are allegedly preventing police from enforcing the law, "one rough hour, and I mean real rough, the word will get out and it will end immediately. End immediately. You know, it'll end immediately."

Trump defenders say that the former president was speaking "in jest," but it didn't seem like a joke (watch below) and is entirely consistent with comments he has made over the years. Plus, populists employing similar authoritarian rhetoric have actually empowered death squads in various countries around the world. In the Philippines, for example, 1000s of people were killed by the police during a war on drugs and crime authorized by a newly elected populist right-wing president. A similar pattern emerged in Brazil in 2019 where the police killed 17 people per day, on average. 

In those deaths, the police act as judge, jury, and executioner. So much for constitutional protections like due process of law and prohibitions on cruel and unusual punishment. How is it conservative to abandon the bill of rights? 

If you want to skip straight to the quoted message in the video below, you cannot, because Trump starts with "one real rough, nasty day" around 2:15, gets off-track with a made-up anecdote about Kamala Harris (referencing a decriminalization law signed by Arnold Schwarzenegger years before Harris was elected to state or national office), and then around 3:25 into the video mentions "one rough hour, and I mean real rough." The first few minutes ramble through some complaints about debate moderators and some made-up stuff about crime. He criticizes statistics, though candidate Trump often references (made up or out-of-date) statistics to support his points.

That last linked article from the Washington Post notes that crime statistics have been in general decline since the 1990s, but did spike in 2020, Trump's final year of office (during the pandemic). Crime stats remained a bit high until 2022, but have declined substantially since then. 

 

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Golden Championship Era

With the KC Royals now likely to make the baseball playoffs and the defending champion KC Chiefs opening the 2024 football season with a victory, I've been thinking about the recent Golden Age for KC-area teams. In the most important competitions that I follow (major league baseball World Series, football Super Bowl, University of Kansas debate and Kansas basketball), these are key results from the last 17 years, 2008-2024:

2024 KC Chiefs win Super Bowl

2023 KC Chiefs win Super Bowl

2022 Kansas Jayhawks win NCAA basketball Tournament

2020 KC Chiefs win Super Bowl

2018 Kansas Jayhawks win National Debate Tournament (NDT)

2015 KC Royals win World Series

2009 Kansas Jayhawks win National Debate Tournament (NDT)

2008 Kansas Jayhawks win NCAA basketball Tournament

That's 8 championship teams!

The Super Bowl victories could be dated for the prior seasons since the overwhelming majority of games occur then, which would make those 2019, 2022, and 2023. That's how Wikipedia lists them.

The last 10 years have been particularly great, but those years could have been even better:

2024 Kansas Jayhawks lose in finals of NDT (2nd place)
2021 KC Chiefs lose Super Bowl (2nd place)

2018 Kansas Jayhawks lose in Final Four of NCAA basketball Tournament 

2016 Kansas Jayhawks lose in finals of NDT (2nd place)

2014 KC Royals lose World Series in 7 games (2nd place)

2012 Kansas Jayhawks lose in finals of NCAA basketball Tournament (2nd place)

That's 6 more near-misses, creating good chances to win a championship 14 times in 18 years!

It was a bit slower before then. This is from 1980 through 2007, a 28 year period:

2003 Kansas Jayhawks lose in finals of NCAA basketball Tournament (2nd place)

2002 Kansas Jayhawks lose in Final Four of NCAA basketball Tournament 

1993 Kansas Jayhawks lose in Final Four of NCAA basketball Tournament 

1991 Kansas Jayhawks lose in finals of NCAA basketball Tournament (2nd place)

1988 Kansas Jayhawks win NCAA basketball Tournament

1986 Kansas Jayhawks lose in Final Four of NCAA basketball Tournament 

1985 KC Royals win World Series 

1983 Kansas Jayhawks win National Debate Tournament

1980 KC Royals lose World Series in 6 games (2nd place)

That's only 9 opportunities in 28 years, with just 3 championships. 

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Dick Cheney is Voting for Kamala Harris

Former Vice President Dick Cheney has often been criticized on this blog. However, the Cheney family agrees with me about the threat Donald Trump poses to democracy. Liz Cheney famously co-headed the January 6 Committee. Now, Dick Cheney is speaking out:

"In our nation’s 248-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump. He tried to steal the last election using lies and violence to keep himself in power after the voters had rejected him. He can never be trusted with power again. As citizens, we each have a duty to put country above partisanship to defend our Constitution. That is why I will be casting my vote for Vice President Kamala Harris," said on Friday, September 6, Dick Cheney in an interview with the media.

The odd wording in that last phrase likely indicates the extent to which AI is being used to put together stories on the web. It's not great. 

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MIchigan Travel (and Beer) update

Note: This is an update/revision of an older post.

October 4 update: we returned to Michigan for fall break, so I'm editing this post from August. 

Thus summer, my wife and I enjoyed our "annual" vacation Michigan trip July 10th to 22nd. We had a brief visit to Kalamazoo in April so that info is also listed below. And we were in the Detroit area one night in late May before entering Canada. [Plus fall break September 27-October 1.]

This year during the vacation, we dined with old KU friends in Mt. Pleasant on the first day, spent a couple of days in the Grand Rapids, Holland, and South Haven area (visiting Meijer Gardens and various restaurants and brewpubs), went up to Traverse City for six nights, and then returned to stay in Holland for a couple more days. Also, we again stopped on the way home at Shapiro's in Indianapolis and bought some bagels for home. 

We have a lot of Michigan traditions and I'm not going to use this post to mention them all. And we certainly enjoyed some new experiences as well, such as visiting Sleeping Bear Dunes. We attended a movie at the "new" Traverse City Film Festival, which occurs now on Tuesdays. Michael Moore and the director zoomed in for an hour or so after the film. 

Beyond the vacation details, this post is mostly about Michigan beer. Basically, I'm using this post to summarize my recent and prior visits to Michigan brewpubs. This is one instance where Google Timeline information is helpful. I'm not listing breweries where I didn't have at least one drink. We entered a couple this year to look into buying singles -- or in one case decided not to stay for dinner since they were having a loud celebratory event.  

Given that Michigan has over 400 breweries, my personal list includes less than 5% of the total! I could move to Michigan and have a difficult time sampling all of them. 

2024 (5 new; 24 total) (new ones in bold)

Latitude 42°, Kalamazoo (April trip)

Big Lake Brewing, Holland

Brass Ring Brewing, Grand Rapids

Two Guys Brewing, Grand Rapids

Short's Brewing, Elk Rapids location

Filling Station Brewing, Traverse  City

Workshop Brewing, Traverse City

Infinity Brewing, Traverse City (September)

Jolly Pumpkin Brewing, Traverse City (September)

Loco Boys Brewing, Traverse City (September)

We dined at all of these except Short's, where I mainly wanted to try the new Payne Pils (pictured above). Latitude 42 and Brass Ring had the best food though we liked our meals at Big Lake and Workshop. The wait and service at Filling Station had us questioning our choice. Incidentally, we've now also visited beer friendly HopCat locations in Grand Rapids (2 different locations), Ann Arbor, Detroit, Holland, Kalamazoo, and Louisville (sadly now closed permanently). 

October Update: The food was OK to good at both Infinity and Jolly Pumpkin, but Loco Boys was closer to very good/exceptional. They serve Mexican food! 

2023 (1 new; 19 total)

Griffin Claw, Rochester Hills near Detroit

Brewery Vivant, Grand Rapids

Founders, Grand Rapids

Brewery Vivant may have the best brewpub food we've found in Michigan. 

2022 (4 new; 18 total)

Odd Side Ales, Grand Haven

Unruly Brewing, Muskegon

Rare Bird Brewing, Traverse City

Cherry Republic Brewing Company & Public House, Glen Arbor

Founders, Grand Rapids

We dined at all of those places, though at Odd Side we had to order takeout from a nearby restaurant. They don't have food. 

2021 (2 new; 14 total)

Big Lake Brewing, Holland

Guardian Brewing, Saugatuck

Brewery Vivant, Grand Rapids

We also dined at all of these.

2019 (2 new; 12 total)

New Holland Brewing, Holland

Big Lake Brewing, Holland

Clam Lake Beer Company, Cadillac (2)

Filling Station, Traverse City

Workshop Brewing, Traverse City

MiddleCoast Brewing, Traverse City (was called Monkey Fist at the time)

We did not dine at Big Lake or MiddleCoast, but both have food (I think).

2018 (2 new; 10 total)

Workshop Brewing, Traverse City

Clam Lake Beer Company, Cadillac

Filling Station, Traverse City

We dined at these.

2017

I was on antibiotics that trip and did not visit any brewpubs and avoided alcohol. 

2016 (2 new; 8 total)

Saugatuck Brewing, Saugatuck

Filling Station, Traverse City

2015 (2 new ones, 6 total)

Short's Brewing, Bellaire

Rare Bird, Traverse City

We dined at these.

Older trips: (at least 4 visited, from memory)

New Holland Brewing, Holland

Mackinaw Brewing, Traverse City

North Peak, Traverse City

Jolly Pumpkin, Traverse City

We did not dine at Jolly Pumpkin, but they have food -- and various other locations across the state.

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Portland

In July, my spouse and I traveled to Portland to link with our youngest daughter (and her boyfriend). While out there we also saw my spouse's father, her brother, and an old friend of mine from graduate school, Paul (a former blogger here (!) and best man at my wedding decades ago). 

We had a nice outing along the Columbia River Gorge, stopping at Cape Horn: 

 

In addition to visiting Powell's Books, I tried to drink some good beers in that terrific beer city. For example, I had the World Beer Cup winning Australian pale ale, Dragontail IPA, and the World Beer Cup winning Nonalcoholic Deschutes Black Butte Porter.  The latter was consumed at the brewpub in the Pearl District. 

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Canadian Film Festival

In late May my spouse and I drove to Canada and attended the Blue Mountain Film Festival at the ski resort just outside of Collingwood. From there we ventured over to Toronto for a few days, took in a Blue Jays game versus the Orioles, and then had a final stop in Rochester for a few days. 

At the film festival we saw three very good films. I think the best was probably Girls Will Be Girls, though I also really enjoyed The Missile and the Teacher Who Promised the Sea. These were all international films and each arguably offered some lessons about global politics.

The Orioles easily won the matchup against the Jays, but the home team was giving away Vlad Guerrero bobble head dolls and Vlad hit a HR that night. Loyal readers may recall that I saw Vlad on a Michigan vacation years ago (2017!) when he was playing for the Lansing Lugnuts. Bo Bichette was a teammate on both occasions.

In Toronto we enjoyed walking around downtown and in the Beaches neighborhood. We had some excellent ethnic food including Indian and Thai. Departing Canada, we crossed and visited Niagara Falls from the NY side.

In Rochester we ate some delicious local strawberries, some on a short cake served with ice cream and whipped cream, and drank a very tasty local beer, Unfettered Soul from Strangebird, that recently won a Bronze for its Hazy IPA at the World Beer Cup. 

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Blood of Angels

Until tonight, I think the last film I saw in a theater was "Little Women," which would have been December 2019 -- in Long Island, when COVID was secretly circulating in the greater NY area. We didn't get sick, but the pandemic kept me out of theaters for years. Inertia and home streaming kept me away even longer, though I live just a couple of blocks from a movie house.

Tonight, my spouse and I attended a local showing of "Blood of Angels" by Bobby Fowler (and friends), son of two of my colleagues in Political Science. It was a really fun evening and I'll be going back to the movies sooner rather than later. The movie seemed quite professional, and I mean that as sincere praise. 

Here's the trailer: 

 

It is a western, obviously, but also a thriller. Every scene was shot on the farm my colleagues inhabit -- and the film features their horses as well as their children. Mom has a prominent role too!

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2024A Louisville Sluggers

This post is going to highlight the fantasy baseball team I've built for the first half (A) season of the OBFLB (Original Bitnet Fantasy Baseball League). As I've explained before, this is a 24 team league I joined in 1991 and we play 2 seasons each year, divided basically by the all-star break. There is an annual mid-year draft.

It features head-to-head competition in 10 categories. Five are offensive -- HR, steals, plate appearances, on base percentage, and "runs produced" (runs + RBI / ABs). Five are pitching -- ERA, WHIP, wins, innings pitched, and 2xSaves plus Holds. 

I'll note the 8 players I retained from last year in red and will indicate draft rounds for the other players. 

Lineup

C Will Smith LAD

1B Vinnie Pasquantino KC

2B Isaac Paredes TB

3B Gunnar Henderson BAL

SS Anthony Volpe NYY

OF Ronald Acuna ATL

OF Kerry Carpenter DET (10)

OF Will Benson CIN (14)

DH Jordan Westburg BAL (13)

Bench

C Freddy Fermin KC (26)

2B Michael Massey KC (23)

UT Zack McKinstry DET (21)

OF Trent Grisham (20)

OF Roman Anthony BOS (22)

OF Jason Hayward LAD (24)

OF Estevan Florial CLE (28)

Pitching

SP Sonny Gray STL

SP Nick Pivetta BOS (9)

SP Seth Lugo KC (11)

SP Luis Severino NYM (12)

SP Reynaldo Lopez ATL (15)

SP Clarke Schmidt NYY (16)

SP Keaton Winn SF (19)

SP Matt Waldron SD (25)

RP Adbert Alzolay CHC 

RP Hunter Harvey WAS (17)

RP Jason Adam TB (18)

RP Steven Wilson CHX (27)

My 2023B season team won the championship, which I'm fairly sure I did not previously note on the blog. I had also won in 2021 A (linked above) and the only carryovers from that team are C W. Smith, OF Acuna, and SP Gray. 

In total, the Sluggers have won 11 World Series (in 14 appearances) competing in 65 championship seasons. Another team (the Men of LA) has 10 titles in 16 appearances, but the teams have never met in the World Series. We have met at least once in the playoffs when Men of LA beat the Sluggers in 2021 B. Prior to 2012 the playoff matchups are not clearly delineated in the records.   


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Oscars 2023

This is my annual post about the Academy Awards. I'm not predicting who will win, but instead ranking the nominations in my preferred order of finish. I'll only rank the films and performances I've seen and will update this list in the future once I see a film. Those changes will be noted in yellow highlights. 

You can find my post about last year's Oscars here and work backward if you want. 

Best picture

“Killers of the Flower Moon”

“Oppenheimer”

“Anatomy of a Fall”

“Poor Things”

“Past Lives”

“The Holdovers”

“American Fiction”

“The Zone of Interest”

“Maestro”

“Barbie”

Frankly I'd be OK if any of the top 4 5 6 win. They are all very good films. The Holdovers is the one I could imagine watching again in a few years because of the humor. Maybe Barbie too. Oppenheimer conceivably could be a film for my political science course.

Update: Poor Things was terrific with lots of interesting stuff going on. It explores some of the same themes about science as Oppenheimer but in a very different manner.

Update 2: Anatomy of a Fall is an exceptional film that I watched in late August 2024. It's very long, but I could imagine seeing it again though I suppose the resolution to the mystery at the center of the film won't be a surprise the next time I see it. 

Zone of Interest could also be a film for my course, but it is almost impossible to rate here. It is a singular work of art that is not meant to be entertaining. The other films that feature horrible deeds, including Killers of the Flower Moon, have moments of light humor. The Zone of Interest is unrelenting, but also masterful. See it once. 

Directing

Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”

Yorgos Lanthimos, “Poor Things”

Justine Triet, “Anatomy of a Fall”

Jonathan Glazer, “The Zone of Interest”

Martin Scorsese, “Killers of the Flower Moon”

I flip-flopped some of the top films here and it might be mysterious why I did this. It would probably take too long to explain, but some of the rankings of the movies as movies reflect the writing, the acting, the cinematography etc. In this category, I have attempted to weigh the factors that the directors most directly control. It's subjective. 

Actor in a leading role

Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”

Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”

Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction”

Colman Domingo, “Rustin”

Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”

Giamatti was excellent. He may not win, but the performance was award-worthy.

I've seen a lot of Murphy in 2024 because my spouse and I have watched several seasons of Peaky Blinders on Netflix. He's talented and I would not be disappointed if he won.

Wright and Domingo were also excellent though I have not heard serious buzz about their winning and I probably would vote for one of the other performances. But this is a tight category. 

Cooper was fine but the movie really didn't click with me. 

Actor in a supporting role

Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”

Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”

Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things”

Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction”

Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”

We were well into the movie before I recognized Downey in his role. It's a very good performance. 

DeNiro played his usual type, a type he has long perfected. Brown was excellent too. I hope this pushes him into larger roles.

Gosling has had many better roles.

Actress in a leading role

Emma Stone, “Poor Things”

Sandra Hüller, “Anatomy of a Fall”

Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”

Annette Bening, “Nyad”

Carey Mulligan, “Maestro”

Last fall, my spouse and I saw Gladstone in a 2016 Kelly Reichardt film, Certain Women. It was a strong performance and I'm not surprised she delivered an Oscar-caliber performance this year. It's not as loud as Bening's role. If I had to re-rank them from scratch, I could just as easily put Mulligan over Bening. Update: Emma Stone was excellent, as was Sandra Hüller. 

Actress in a supporting role

America Ferrera, “Barbie”

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”

Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”

Jodie Foster, “Nyad”

I don't have strong feelings here though apparently Randolph is the overwhelming favorite. She was very good in her role. I've seen Ferrera's speech more than once on TV and wonder if it will carry her to a victory. It was impressive. 

Blunt was fine, but the role was perhaps not Oscar-worthy. Surprisingly, Foster was somewhat mannered in Nyad, delivering a character not a lot unlike some others she has performed in the past. 

Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”

Documentary feature film

So far we have not seen any of these. There's work to do, no none of them sound especially uplifting. Most are available on streaming services that we can access, so it is inevitable that I will see some.

“Bobi Wine: The People’s President”

“The Eternal Memory”

“Four Daughters”

“To Kill a Tiger”

“20 Days in Mariupol”

International feature film

United Kingdom, “The Zone of Interest”

Spain, “Society of the Snow”

Germany, “The Teachers’ Lounge”

I've discussed The Zone of Interest above. I am curious as to why it is listed as UK rather than Poland, which is credited in the film.

Society of the Snow is an interesting film (on Netflix right now) that had me recalling the press coverage of the crash and aftermath. The Teacher's Lounge was well-made, but I thought the tone was over-the-top for the setting. Maybe I'm jaded by American schools where "zero tolerance" brings to mind the threat of gun violence. 

Of the others, I really want to see The Zone of Interest, which is also on the top list above. 

Italy, “Io Capitano”

Japan, “Perfect Days”

Animated feature film

I have not watched many animated films the past few years. I saw a few minutes of the new Spider-Man at a brewpub and will probably see it before any of the others. 

“The Boy and the Heron”

“Elemental”

“Nimona”

“Robot Dreams”

“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”

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American Feelings

I used some "Feeling Thermometer" data in a class recently and was struck by an insane result reflected in the recent data. You'll see that below, where I've linked to the original polling agency, 

First, definition: A "Feeling Thermometer" is a commonly used research measure. Here's a reasonable definition from a recent piece of scholarship:

The feeling thermometer, or thermometer scale, is a rating procedure to measure respondents’ feelings about an issue using a scale that corresponds or makes a metaphor to temperatures in the thermometer.

Political scientists often derive these numbers via public opinion polling. Sometimes, respondents are specifically asked to provide a number on a scale (0 to 100 is typical) and the results reflect averages, often broken down by specific demographic information.

For example, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs asks Americans in a regular poll what they think about foreign countries. 

As this data reveals, Americans feel quite warmly about Canadians, but have quite cold feelings about North Korea, Iran, Russia, and China. Likely not coincidentally, these are four states specifically identified as threats to American interests in the Director of National Intelligence's annual (public) assessment report. Question for another day: which way does the causal arrow run?

With those numbers in the 19 to 32 range in mind (and 85 for Canada), take a look at this next polling result, showing how Americans feel about other Americans -- limited by their political party. Americans like other Americans of the same political party just a little less than they like Canadians.

And Americans' feelings about members of the opposing political party are comparable to their feelings about North Korea!

Some recent political science research is particularly interesting about the meaning of such data, suggesting that these positive and negative feelings can have real-world consequences, at least in international politics:

This research note utilizes novel country feeling thermometer data to explore the [Democratic Peace Theory] debate’s micro-foundations: the underlying drivers of international amity and enmity among democratic citizens in the US, UK, France, and Germany.

No wonder some scholars are studying the allegedly growing risk of American civil war.



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Best films of 2023

The graphic below identifies the top 25 films from 2023 that critics ranked on their end-of-year "best of" lists. The full list goes to 100 and if you are interested in seeing it, I'm sourcing the list from a different website this year. The methodology for compilation is ostensibly the same. Here's the detail:

Films are sorted by the percentage of lists they are included on.* This is typically the same as sorting by number of lists included, but can vary when films make lists across multiple years.  For example, if one film makes 10 lists in a year with 100 lists available, it’s ranking will be higher than a film that makes 15 lists when 200 lists are available.  The times a film appears at the top of a list is used as a tie-breaker.

*punctuation errors corrected 

Basically, this is an annual best films comment that I'm posting for 2023. This is the post about the best films of 2022. Below this graphic, you'll find my rankings of these films (by tiers) with a list of the ones I still need to see. As I watch them over time, I'll edit the post but note the changes with yellow highlighting.  

This "best of" comment is distinct from both the annual post on "films of 2023," which is my end-of-year musing about all the films I saw in a calendar year and my annual Oscar post. 

Top-tier films. These are very serious Oscar contenders:

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Anatomy of a Fall

Poor Things

Past Lives

American Fiction

The Holdovers

The Zone of Interest

May December

I've seen all but May December since the new year, which means they were not on the December list for 2023. The top 4 5 on this are excellent and are well worth your time. Warning: Oppenheimer is exceptional, but it is both very long and about a subject that I have studied off-and-on since the 1980s. Your interest may vary from mine.  

Incidentally, I joined Letterboxd last October and you can find  my brief reviews of films there. I think I backfilled for all of 2023 and most of the films used in my political science course. 

Second-tier films. These are very good and may garner Oscar support:

Maestro 

Showing Up

Barbie

Maestro was well-made and well-acted, but I wasn't nearly as interested in this story as I was in the stories from the first-tier of films. I didn't find Bernstein's life especially interesting.  

The 2 films after Maestro were both calendar year 2023 viewings. Honestly I thought about putting Barbie in the following tier. 

Third-tier films. These are entertaining but flawed films:

The Killer

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret

Asteroid City

Again, nothing new here yet. My spouse and I are trying to find time to see the Oscar nominated movies. 

Fourth-tier films. I found these to be disappointing and do not recommend (if necessary, could remain blank):

N/A

Films yet to see (16 of 25 as of today):

Afire

All of Us Strangers

The Boy and the Heron

Fallen Leaves

Godzilla Minus One

John Wick: Chapter 4

Passages

Priscilla

Saltburn

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Glancing through the rest of the top 100, I've seen the following films already and rank them roughly in this order:

Tar (tier 1, a remnant from last year's list for some critic)

Fair Play (tier 2 or 3)

They Cloned Tyrone (tier 2 or 3)

Reality (tier 2 or 3)

Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part I (Tier 4 material)

Films of 2023

I didn't watch that many 2023 movies this year, particularly through October. However, I did sign up for Letterboxd and have been writing brief reviews there. It obviously serves to log all the films I've seen, not merely those released in 2023. It appears I watched 86 films in 2023; thus, the list of new films below reflects only a small portion of my total movie viewing. 

As longtime readers know, this is an annual list and here is a link to last year's post if you want to work backwards through my viewing experiences. 

Films from this first set will probably receive award nominations, or at least deserve strong consideration.

Leave the World Behind

May December

Scrapper

Master Gardener

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret

Showing Up

I doubt Leave the World Behind is the best picture of 2023, but I think it is outstanding and am certain to see it again -- and will strongly consider it for viewing in my class on Global Politics Through Film. Amidst all the paranoia are some interesting reactions to uncertainty, threats, cyber-terror, and ecological catastrophe. 

May December is an interesting film with strong acting performances and both subtle and unsubtle messages. At least the filmmaker had something of potential importance to say.

Scrapper is sort of a British version of The Florida Project, though I think the young girl lead actor is older in this film. The story is interesting, there are some funny moments, and the human connections seem real. 

Master Gardener was one of the stranger movies I've seen in awhile and the romantic connection that the title character ultimately forms is unpredictable, but believable.  Joel Egerton is a talented actor that I also saw this year in The Stranger. He plays very complex characters in both films. 

Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret (based on the Judy Blume book) was entertaining, despite the fact that I was likely not the target audience. Kathy Bates steals her scenes, which are often hilarious. 

Showing Up is a character study with a thin plot and terrific acting performances. The artists in the film are friends and family who inspire and infuriate one another, depending upon the moment. In the end they seem to be able to live with that dichotomy even if some are particularly gifted and have talent that "shows up" others. My spouse and I are big fans of director Kelly Reichardt. Check out her other films, perhaps beginning with First Cow or Wendy and Lucy. We saw Certain Women a few weeks prior to seeing Showing Up.  

These films were quite good and might receive award consideration:

Sharper

The Killer

They Cloned Tyrone

Reality

Barbie

The Pez Outlaw (documentary)

Sharper is a pretty good crime film with con-man (woman) vibes. The Killer is well-executed, but ultimately the story is a basic revenge plot for an unsympathetic character. It lacks heft. They Cloned Tyrone isn't really a comedy, despite Jamie Foxx's performance, but it is entertaining and fairly clever at times. 

Reality was interesting and based on a true story, but the true story felt a little thin for a feature film. 

Everyone saw Barbie, right? I liked it, more or less, but there are significant shortcomings inherent in the source material. This film's success proves that Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling have enough star power (and talent), and Greta Gerwig sufficient directing skill, to make an entertaining film out of almost nothing substantial.  

I would have liked to see those 3 remake something like The Pez Outlaw as a feature film, rather than a small documentary. Bet that would be interesting. It's a fun tale on its own. 

These were less interesting to me:

Asteroid City

No Hard Feelings

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

Asteroid City is an interesting visual experience, but Wes Anderson's mannered style becomes a bit tedious in this mediocre film. In all honesty, I didn't think that much of Wes Anderson's previous film, The French Dispatch, and wonder if he's trying a bit too hard to be quirky at the expense of story-telling. Keep in mind that I loved Moonrise Kingdom and The Grand Budapest Hotel. I also saw his short The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar this fall and found it merely OK. 

Jennifer Lawrence is always worth watching, and there's much of her to see in No Hard Feelings (you probably read about the beach scene even if you didn't see the movie), but this is not a particularly funny comedy. Maybe it would have been better in a theater. 

Nothing in Indiana Jones seemed particularly novel, but I guess it was worth using the IP for one last payday. I kind of wish the character Jones had been handled more like James Bond, with younger actors portraying him after a few films with more frequent releases. An adventuresome archaeologist is a great premise, but they could have used more creativity reflecting on the world. 

I'm obviously missing a large number of highly rated films from 2023 and plan to see them through 2024 (and beyond). I used to provide a list (and I still might) of top-rated films that I have not yet seen, but I didn't do it last year and no one complained. 

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Books of 2023

This is my annual post listing books I read in the most recent year. It seems kind of hard to believe, but I have produced such a post since 2005. This is a link to the 2022 list if blog readers want to work backwards.

Also, I posted short reviews of most of these books at Goodreads. 

Non-Fiction

Amitav Ghosh, The Great Derangement; Climate Change and the Unthinkable

Samara Klar and Yanna Krupnikov, Independent Politics: How American Disdain for Parties Leads to Political Inaction

David Maraniss, Clemente; The Passion and Grace of Baseball's Last Hero

Satchell Paige, Maybe I'll Pitch Forever

Bill James, Bill James Handbook, Walk-Off Edition

Sean Forman, The Negro Leagues are Major Leagues

Anne Jewell, Baseball In Louisville

Jeff Silverman, The Greatest Baseball Stories Ever Told: Thirty Unforgettable Tales from the Diamond

Buzz Bissinger, Three Nights in August; Strategy, Heartbreak, and Joy Inside the Mind of a Manager

Robert D. Kaplan, The Tragic Mind; Fear, Fate, and the Burden of Power

I read several books about climate change this year, but Ghosh's book is the only one that is not fiction. Ghosh writes a great deal about the need for artists to create content about climate change and he emphasizes the importance of imagining some of the catastrophic potential outcomes.  

The Klar and Krupnikov book I got via ILL and read it for a project I'm working on with a colleague. The Maraniss and Paige bio and autobiography are definitely worth your time. I was inspired to read about Clemente after attending a Pirates game in Pittsburgh. 

I've purchased just about every book Bill James has written about baseball, including the annual Handbook (he is a contributor), but this book was disappointing. I realize the publisher is ending the run of this book because the stats are virtually all available on the internet, but I like to have them all together in one book that I can read at my leisure in my living room without a computer or device. This book does not include very many of the stats long associated with the book. The essays are fine, but the product is below the standard set by the prior editions.

The Silverman edited volume has some great pieces, but I'd previously read most of the best ones. Some of the entries are not that great. 

I wrote a long review of Bissinger on this blog. 

Literature and Genre Fiction

Larry McMurtry, Terms of Endearment

Anne Tyler, Dinner at the Homesick Restaurant

Nick Hornby, Just Like You

John Updike, Bech is Back

Jenny Offill, Weather

Yevgeny Zamyatin, We

I don't know why I've only recently read Terms of Endearment. I read the prior book in the Houston series decades ago. And I saw the movie with Shirley MacLaine and Jack Nicholson soon after it appeared. Oh well.

Anne Tyler and Nick Hornby are always worth reading and I enjoyed both these books a great deal. 

The Bech book is really a set of short stories. It's OK, but uneven for this reason.  

The Offill book didn't really click with me, though it occasionally mentions climate change. Zamyatin's We is a classic, but it seemed to fall short of my expectations for dystopian fiction. 

Genre fiction:

James Kestrel, Five Decembers

Kurt Anderson, True Believers 

Colson Whitehead, Crook Manifesto

Walter Mosley, Bad Boy Brawly Brown

Michael Connelly, Trunk Music

Jason Matthews, Palace of Treason

Derek Raymond, He Died With His Eyes Open

I'd say these books were the cream of the crop. Kestrel's book is excellent and I urge everyone to read it. Kestrel, Anderson, and Matthews have all written books featuring spies and espionage so it was another good year for reading that sort of fiction.

Whitehead, Mosley, Connelly, and Raymond work in the crime genre and these are captivating examples. 

Ward Just, Exiles in the Garden

M is for Malice, Sue Grafton

Joe Gores, Hammett

R.D. Rosen, Dead Ball

Richard McGuire, Here

Ian Fleming, On Her Majesty's Secret Service

Donald Westlake, Brothers Keepers

Donald Hamilton, Death of a Citizen

Richard Stark (Donald Westlake), Slayground

David Goodis, The Wounded and the Slain

Charles Willeford, The Burnt Orange Heresy

Robert B. Parker, Taming a Sea Horse

Loren Estleman, Angel Eyes

Ross McDonald, Sleeping Beauty

Donald Westlake, The Hook

Claudia Davila, Luz Sees the Light

Carl Hiaasen, Star Island

Christopher Buckley, Make Russia Great Again

Jack Handey, The Stench of Honolulu

Many, actually most, of the other authors are familiar from past iterations of this summary report. You'll find books here from the Kinsey Milhone, Easy Rawlins, Spencer, and Lew Archer detective series, which I'm generally reading in order. 

There are a couple of graphic novels about climate change on this list. Here is an interesting concept as the artist has drawn the changes over time to a single plot of land. The Luz book is for children, which means it is a quick read. 

Many of these books were OK, but most were so-so and had some serious flaws. I'm not going to be detailing all of those here, but you can probably find out on my Goodreads account. 

Buckley and Handey prove that it can be difficult to be funny. 

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