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Friday, March 07, 2008

Racing news

This post updates one I wrote back on Valentine's Day. Essentially, by listing the states that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have won, I provide a snapshot of the Democratic nominating race to-date and suggest some potential implications for November.

For example, post-Ohio, Obama's electability in key swing states is being challenged. However, from the list below, it is easy to see that he's won a number of potentially important states to the Democratic Party's fate in November. Indeed, Obama has won more Purple states than has Clinton. Do doubters ask whether Clinton can win Wisconsin, Iowa, or Missouri in the same way that many are asking if Obama can win Ohio -- or Pennsylvania?

It may well be true that only Obama can put Colorado and perhaps Virginia in play. Missouri may be tough regardless of the Democratic nominee.

Purple states (11, Obama 6-5, nearly 6-3-2)
Arkansas: Clinton
Colorado: Obama
Iowa: Obama
Maine: Obama
Missouri: Obama
Nevada: Clinton (Obama won delegate count)
New Hampshire: Clinton
New Mexico: Clinton (nearly tied)
Ohio: Clinton
Virginia: Obama
Wisconsin: Obama

This next set of blue states should go to either candidate in November. Incidentally, these states are worth 189 Electoral Votes in 2008. If Obama could hold the six swing states he's already won (not a given), then he's at 243 EVs. Add Oregon (which has yet to vote) and Nevada (where Obama won the delegate count) and he'd be at 255.

Conceivably, Obama could win the election by winning any one of Florida, Michigan, Ohio, or Pennsylvania. Gore and Kerry won both Michigan and Pennsylvania and nonetheless lost their races.

New Hampshire and New Mexico could substitute for Missouri. With Michigan, the total would be 270 on the nose.

Blue states (14, Obama 9-5)
California: Clinton
Connecticut: Obama
Delaware: Obama
District of Columbia: Obama
Hawaii: Obama
Illinois: Obama
Maryland: Obama
Massachusetts: Clinton
Minnesota: Obama
New Jersey: Clinton
New York: Clinton
Rhode Island: Clinton
Vermont: Obama
Washington: Obama

This last set of states is likely to go to John McCain regardless of the identity of the Democratic nominee:

Red states (14, Obama 11-3)
Alabama: Obama
Alaska: Obama
Arizona: Obama
Georgia: Obama
Idaho: Obama
Kansas: Obama
Louisiana: Obama
Nebraska: Obama
North Dakota: Obama
Oklahoma: Clinton
South Carolina: Obama
Tennessee: Clinton
Texas: Clinton (caucus votes still unavailable)
Utah: Obama

By next Wednesday, this last list will probably also include Wyoming and Mississippi for Obama.

I continue to think that the Dems are going to have to find a way to vote again in Michigan and probably in Florida.

It is widely assumed that Clinton would win Florida, but Michigan may be more like Wisconsin than Ohio. Whatever the outcome, I hope voters in those states will get a chance to influence the contest.

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