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Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Election Day

It is officially election day and I'm pleased to report the first bad news for George W. Bush.

As reported on MSNBC by Ron Reagan, Dixville Notch, NH, just released its complete returns and the result was 15 Bush, 15 Kerry and 1 Nader.

Traditionally, this town votes first in the nation.

Does their vote simply reflect the entire country? Is this a microcosm of what's to come?


Like a bad Gallup Poll, however, Dixville Notch is solid red. They've gone Republican in every presidential election except for 1968 since at least 1960. I found this Detroit News article from January 2004:
In general elections, Dixville Notch went solidly for losers Richard Nixon in 1960, Barry Goldwater in '64 and, Hubert Humphrey in '68, then finally picked a winner with Nixon in '72, only to see him quit at midterm. In 1976, their choice was Michigan's Gerald Ford, who lost to Jimmy Carter. In 1980 and '84, they liked Reagan, as did most of the country. George H.W. Bush was their pick in 1988, but Dixville Notch didn't back another winner until George W. Bush in 2000.
Kerry is going to win.

CORRECTION Update: It was actually Hart's Location, NH that went 15-15-1, MSNBC reported it incorrectly. Dixville Notch went for Bush 19-7.

In 2000, these two towns went for Bush by a combined total of 38-15, according to Mark Kleiman and this year it was 34-19. Here's what Kleiman wrote:
That's a swing of nearly eight percent away from Bush and toward the Democrat. Using a likely voter model I just pulled out of my hat, this station can now project a Kerry landslide...
Regular commenter E-Mart pointed this out. Thanks.

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