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Wednesday, November 03, 2004

Ohio? Tie?

As for the Electoral College, it looks like Kerry simply has to win Ohio. I haven't really looked at the uncounted precincts yet. I wish the media would say whether those are traditionally Democratic or Republican areas...and the margin in those areas from 2000.

Apparently, some of the uncounted votes are in the Cleveland area.

Also, just how many uncounted votes exist in Florida? Absentees? Early voters? What is left to count?

In any case, likely the next best hope without Ohio is 269-269 if Kerry holds New Mexico. In this tie scenario, Kerry wins all the Gore states, plus New Hampshire and Nevada -- a scenario I blogged about in late September.

In that case, the election would go to the House unless some individual elector was unfaithful (like one Bush elector in West Virginia). Presumably, the Republican advantage would give them the edge there, but that seems to be a place for all kinds of public democratic (small d) pressure.

Indeed, electors could be strongly encouraged to vote for the popular vote winner. It was impossible in 2000 when more than 1 Bush elector would have had to defect, but it seems more plausible in the case of a tie that would otherwise send the election to the House of Representatives.

Some states also send mixed messages and could perhaps be influenced between today and the potential vote in the House. Arkansas, for example, has more Dems in the Congress than Republicans; yet, the state has apparently gone for Bush.

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