Vote No on Trump

Donald Trump notoriously refused to have a second debate against Kamala Harris -- perhaps because polls and critics overwhelmingly thought he lost the September debate. His verbal mistakes and ridiculous claims during that performance have given way to physical stumbles this week. The guy is 78 years old and his supporters spent months attacking the apparent decline of an aging opponent earlier this year. The electorate obviously absorbed that and Joe Biden was supplanted as the Democratic nominee as a result of the fear of a geriatric president. I don't think Trump wanted America to see another contest highlighting the stark contrast between him and the far more vigorous and quick 60 year old Harris. 

However, anyone can watch video of Trump campaigning in 2016 and it is quite evident that he is a shadow of his former self. His messages are less coherent, he rambles, and he misspeaks with great regularity. Those are links to articles, but just search YouTube for old footage of him from 2015 until 2020.

Through 2020, America became increasingly unimpressed with Trump and his daily COVID TV show. Many analysts say that the 2020 election was a referendum on Trump's handling of the pandemic -- and he lost. Biden won by 7 million votes nationally. 

In any case, despite the lack of a second debate to highlight the contrasts between the candidates, there is still time for the Harris campaign to emphasize the stark differences in their views of America. I intend to make another post highlighting why Harris is the far superior candidate -- not only in temperament, but also because of her pro-choice stance, climate change policy, the importance of Supreme Court nominations, her plans to restore higher and fairer tax rates on the richest Americans, the survival of the Affordable Care Act, etc. Trump is far worse on all those points. 

In this post I'm going to pick some choice Trump remarks that highlight some horrific stances the former President has taken regarding his plans for those opposed to his ideas and policies.

Before I begin, however, I would note that this clip from the 2016 campaign would have been disqualifying for someone seeking to be a junior high school assistant principal let alone President of the United States. I'm not sure new young voters are familiar with it:

Indeed, I've seen credible claims that the youngest voters don't really know anything about Trump's notorious Access Hollywood video footage. This also seemed disqualifying at the time -- and many Republicans said so:

Those words, which Trump and his followers dismissed as "locker room talk," were seemingly very accurate as reflected in Trump's civil defamation trial where a jury found that the former playboy committed "sexual abuse" and even "rape" against a female journalist -- and then denied it. 

I have not even mentioned the 34 felony convictions for business fraud that were again returned after a jury trial. Average Americans, not partisan competitors, heard the evidence presented by prosecutors in NY and decided he filed fraudulent documents concerning his under-the-table payments to porn star Stormy Daniels. Basically, instead of using personal funds to buy her silence, which might have been legal, Trump used business funds and recorded that the payments were for legal services. All of this was in an attempt to hide the facts of his tryst from a voting public in 2016. In other circumstances we'd call that "hush money." 

As I've blogged previously, some of my greatest concerns about Donald Trump center on the fact that the former President regularly makes the kinds of claims and threats that people associate with dictators and tyrants -- he fantasizes about not relinquishing power (and sought to remain in power after losing an election), describes his political opponents as "vermin" or enemies of the people, and threatens to turn the powerful US military against those enemies. 

Just this week, Trump discussed having Republican Liz Cheney, who co-chaired the January 6 investigation in Congress, face a firing squad for her political opinions. 

This is on top of Trump expressing open admiration for non-democratic rule in March 2018 -- and the press reported that the Republican donors in attendance applauded!

Chinese President Xi Jinping recently consolidated power. Trump told the gathering: “He’s now president for life. President for life. And he’s great.” Trump added, “I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll give that a shot someday.”

I know that the Trump campaign has been trying to play up Joe Biden's recent slip of the tongue inadvertently calling Trump supporters "garbage," but Biden is not the candidate, he clarified his remark to make clear he was talking about specific speakers at the Trump rally in Madison Square Garden, AND Trump himself makes similar comments all the time. For example, on Veterans Day in November 2023, Trump called his political opponents "vermin" and an "enemy within" that his administration would persecute: 

“We pledge to you that we will root out the communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country that lie and steal and cheat on elections,” Trump said toward the end of his speech, repeating his false claims that the 2020 election was stolen. “They’ll do anything, whether legally or illegally, to destroy America and to destroy the American Dream.”

It is clear from the speech context that Trump was not talking about some small slice of people who actually identify as communists or Marxists (though a new round of McCarthyism would be horrible). He imagined that this collective group is more dangerous than China or Russia. It's a lot of people.

Trump went on further to state: “the threat from outside forces is far less sinister, dangerous and grave than the threat from within. Our threat is from within. Because if you have a capable, competent, smart, tough leader, Russia, China, North Korea, they’re not going to want to play with us.”

Trump has called Kamala Harris supporters garbage and scum. Just about a week ago, he called the US the "garbage can for the world." 

While words matter and these words are especially concerning, all voters should be frightened about how a new Trump presidency would address the so-called vermin/scum/garbage enemy within. Trump himself claims his response would involve setting the National Guard and military on these foes. Consider his words from an interview on Fox in mid-October 2024:

"I think the bigger problem is the enemy from within,” Trump said. He added: “We have some very bad people. We have some sick people, radical left lunatics. And I think they’re the big — and it should be very easily handled by, if necessary, by National Guard, or if really necessary, by the military, because they can’t let that happen.”

Now circle back to that quote about Cheney above -- and the many documented times Trump has encouraged political violence. Former top national security and political aids who worked for Trump have warned that he is a dangerous wannabe fascist who should not be anywhere near the presidency again. I believe them. 

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The F Word

Nope, not that one. I mean fascism. Not all readers may know what that term means or implies, historically. Most have a vague idea that the term is associated with Hitler (and maybe Mussolini), but don't realize that the word isn't merely a label for a type of politics that may seem obscure to them. It's a label for a particularly dangerous type of authoritarian politics that ends democracy. 

Political scientists often point to numerous examples where fascists and fascist-adjacent authoritarians came to power VIA ELECTIONS and then do everything in their power to assure that their political opponents (along with academics, journalist, artists, and other voices of dissent) are silenced, thrown in prison, and even killed. They do not relinquish power and subsequent elections are effectively "rigged" by the fact that opposition has been illegally crushed.

It's been shocking to me for some time that the European Union, a democratic institution, has not done something dramatic about Victor Orban's Hungary. His rise to power -- and many years in office -- exactly reflect this danger. Many Americans on the right are openly infatuated with this pathway and celebrate Orban as if he were someone to emulate. 

In any case, it is important to realize that the road to fascism is the road to the end of democracy, even if a democratic election lies along the pathway. The presence of a prominent (and successful) fascist in American politics poses great potential dangers.

For those wanting more detail, the Council on Foreign Relations provides a helpful definition of fascism: 

Many experts agree that fascism is a mass political movement that emphasizes extreme nationalism, militarism, and the supremacy of the nation over the individual. This model of government stands in contrast to liberal democracies that support individual rights, competitive elections, and political dissent.

In many ways, fascist regimes are revolutionary in nature. They advocate for the overthrow of existing systems of government and the persecution of political enemies. However, such regimes are also highly conservative in their championing of traditional values.

And although fascist leaders typically claim to support the everyman, in reality, their regimes often align with powerful business interests.

Why would John F. Kelly, Donald Trump's longest-serving Chief of Staff, a former four star general in the US Marines, call Trump a fascist? 

Shall we go through the definition?

First, does Trump lead "a mass political movement that emphasizes extreme nationalism, militarism, and the supremacy of the nation over the individual"?

Trump is a self-described nationalist and ran as a populist, claiming to support the little guy who elites had trampled in the past. He claims to lead a very popular mass political movement. Trump lied and said he won the 2016 election in a "landslide" and repeated the lie after the election of 2020. 

The movement's slogan is literally "Make America Great Again" (MAGA), which is not the same as the liberal democratic objective to prioritize individual rights and dissent. I refer to liberal democracy here as a form of limited government -- the type America has attempted to create since its founding, open to free flowing information, equal protection under the law, minority rights despite majority rule, the rule of law, and a market economy. Americans aspire for a more perfect union, but this can require struggle. America's orginal voters were property-owning white men. Only gradually were other men, women, people of color, adults aged 18 to 21, etc. allowed to partake in this democratic experiment.  

Numerous Trump policies and/or proposals put his view of national goals over individual liberty -- the Muslim ban, the family separation policy, recision of Title IX protections for transgender students, and many more.  If none of that seems bothersome to the reader, don't forget the famous classic poem "First They Came" by Pastor Martin Niemöller.

What about militarism? Trump's efforts to MAGA included (in his first term) an effort to "make our military stronger than ever" as his then-Secretary of Defense said at the time. Trump perhaps wanted to be viewed as the "peace candidate" in 2016, but he repeatedly made (or makes) outlandish military threats against other states -- including North Korea, Iran, and now "the enemy from within." That's militaristic. Trump talks openly about deploying the US military against alleged internal threats -- despite laws designed to prevent that exact scenario. 

Incidentally, that Defense Secretary statement about military strength was from former four-star Marine General Jim Mattis, who reportedly agrees with Kelly and called Trump “the most dangerous person ever.” Notoriously, Trump appointed numerous generals to fill top slots in government, including to positions that are typically reserved for civilians, worrying some scholars of civil-military relations and democratic governance.

Beyond Kelly and Mattis, others from that group have offered similar warnings about Trump as a fascist threat to democracy:

Mark Milley, who was appointed by Trump to be the nation's highest ranking military officer as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, called him "fascist to the core" and "the most dangerous person to this country" in comments to journalist Bob Woodward.

Some of the non-military former staffers have also agreed with Kelly and signed an open letter.

Second does Trump "advocate for the overthrow of existing systems of government and the persecution of political enemies"? Was his regime "also highly conservative in...championing of traditional values"? 

After January 6, the answer to the first question seems obvious. Trump has been offering the "big lie" since losing to Joe Biden in 2020 and still does not accept the results of the election even though he lost dozens of court cases and all of the "evidence" for a stolen election has been convincingly  and thoroughly debunked. Even when Trump sympathizers attempted to recount ballots in Arizona, they arrived at a result that favored Biden by even more votes than the original count. Trump knew that he lost -- according to his Attorney General and his political advisors. His own daughter (Ivanka, who served in the administration) admits that he lost. 

Some people might consider all this and merely think Trump is a "sore loser." But there's much, much more. He gathered protesters and extremists to Washington in an effort to stop the certification of the 2020 election, he worked with political figures in various states to manufacture fake Electoral College electors and ballots, he is charged with inciting protesters to criminal and violent behavior, and he both privately and publicly urged Mike Pence to take actions that are not in the power of the Vice Presidency. 

Since losing, Trump has repeatedly said he will seek revenge on his political enemies -- it's a growing list that includes lots of Republicans that have spoken out against his lies. I do not have time or energy to document each case as an "NPR investigation has found that Trump has made more than a hundred threats to investigate, prosecute, jail or otherwise punish his perceived opponents, including private citizens." By name he has mentioned Joe Biden, Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Adam Schiff, Liz Cheney, Anthony Fauci, etc. Trump openly says he wants retribution. 

The championing of conservative values is part of Trump's message so I won't belabor it. He appointed judges who eliminated the right to abortion and calls now for a "states-right" approach, which is what segregationists wanted for civil rights. He supports tax cuts and gun rights and makes anti-immigration and massive deportation a central argument for his election. These are now all conservative causes -- to say nothing of his recent use of anti-LGBTQ rhetoric. 

Third, despite Trump claiming "to support the everyman," did he, "in reality...often align with powerful business interests"? Trump's main legislative victory as president was a huge tax cut that primarily aided wealthy people and business interests. He appointed a large number of billionaires to his Cabinet -- and very few women or people of color. Elon Musk, the world's richest man, has been advising Trump and openly campaigning for him in person and on his social media site. 

That's the CFR list, but I could easily add more points. Trump has said he would be a dictator on day one. He has stoked violence in American politics -- a critique I have been making for many years. Trump repeatedly praised authoritarians and dictators while he was president -- and after. The list includes Russia's Vladimir Putin, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un, Hungary's Victor Orban, and Chinese President Xi Jinpin. Behind the scenes he apparently admired Adolph Hitler. He has "joked" about serving as president beyond two terms (contrary to the US constitution) and reportedly made all kinds of policy suggestions that would not be legal. Some of the generals and other former Trump officials speaking out against him say he has no understanding of the rule of law. 

I haven't even mentioned his almost unfathomable propensity to lie -- notably even claiming falsely that his January 6 speech encouraged merely peaceful protest, that no one was killed that day, or that no one was armed. All readily disproved. Oh, and by the way, this lying is buttressed by his constant criticism of the media, which he has called "the enemy of the people," and threats to jail reporters and strip away broadcast licenses. 

Anyone thinking of voting for this man should take into account the views of the numerous inner circle Republicans -- including former Vice President Dick Cheney -- who are courageously speaking out against Trump and urging his defeat in November's election. 

NOTE: I may update this piece with links and ideas that I overlooked.

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Immigration and Crime

I participated in a panel in my department today on Foreign Policy and the 2024 election. I talked about NATO and climate change -- with these questions in mind: Will these policy issues influence the outcome of the election (maybe climate change); and how will the election results influence policy going forward?

Colleagues talked about Russia/Ukraine, Gaza/Lebanon, China, and immigration.

The last issue was the most controversial as the panelists (and student audience members) had the deepest disagreement on this issue during the Q&A.

I feel compelled to fact-check some of the statements that were flying around the room.

Contra to alarming claims, the Biden administration has not had an "open borders" policy. This claim is basically a Republican talking point in recent presidential campaigms, not some settled matter of public policy. The libertarian Cato Institute, which used to be reliably Republican, agrees. On the left, advocates of open borders certainly do not view the US border as open. 

Next, immigrants do not commit "most crime" or even a disproportionate share of them.  A number from New York City referenced in today's discussion was essentially made up by "police sources" and reported in the tabloid New York Post.  Meanwhile, a more thorough dive by the NY Times this past February revealed quite different official data from the NYPD:

But police data indicate that there has been no surge in crime since April 2022, when Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas started sending buses of migrants to New York to protest the federal government’s border policy.

More than 170,000 migrants have arrived in the city since then, and it is difficult to know what crime statistics would show had they not come. But as the migrant numbers have increased, the overall crime rate has stayed flat. And, in fact, many major categories of crime — including rape, murder and shootings — have decreased, according to an analysis of the New York Police Department’s month-by-month statistics since April 2022.

The story also quotes (by name) experts: "Jeffrey Butts, director of the Research and Evaluation Center at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice, said that there was no discernible migrant crime wave."

Beyond NYC, the paper also referenced academic studies: 

"In 2023, researchers at Stanford University found that immigrants were imprisoned at lower rates than people born in the United States. In 2020, a University of Wisconsin-Madison study noted that undocumented immigrants in Texas tended to have fewer felony arrests than legal residents."

The Department of Justice's National Institute of Justice recently discussed a study it funded conducted using Texas data, which is perhaps the one referenced by the TImes (or a follow-up): 

 An NIJ-funded study examining data from the Texas Department of Public Safety estimated the rate at which undocumented immigrants are arrested for committing crimes. The study found that undocumented immigrants are arrested at less than half the rate of native-born U.S. citizens for violent and drug crimes and a quarter the rate of native-born citizens for property crimes.

Reuters collected an array of academic studies in mid-summer debunking the myth of out-of-control immigrant crime. "A meta-analysis of more than fifty studies on the link between immigration and crime between 1994 and 2014 found there was no significant relationship between the two." . 

The evidence seems overwhelming. The American Immigration Council looked at data from 1980 to 2022 and found "that as the immigrant share of the population grew, the crime rate declined." The Council also looked at recent data from the FBI and Census Bureau:

Using Uniform Crime Reporting data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and population data from the U. S. Census Bureau, the Council also explored the relationship between total crime rates and immigrant shares of the population between 2017 and 2022 at the state level. Using beta regression analyses and data from all 50 states, the result shows no statistically significant correlation between the immigrant share of the population and the total crime rate in any state. This means higher immigrant population shares are not associated with higher crime rates, which aligns with a wealth of prior research on this topic.

The Brennan Center for Justice links to numerous studies. The Center notes that the immigrant crime myth goes back to at least the 1930s and has been used to tarnish "Irish, Catholic, Jewish, Italian, Mexican, Japanese, Chinese, and German people" who immigrated. One study by a Northwestern scholar referenced in the Reuters story I noted above uses data going back 150 years. The results showed that more recent immigrants are even less likely to commit crimes and become incarcerated than previous waves of immigrants. 

Personally, I've referenced stats in my classes from the Anti-Defamation League that reveal much the same information -- immigrants commit fewer crimes than citizens. By the way, links in this quote are in the original and not all of them currently work. The bolded parts are also in the original. 

Study after study has shown that immigrants – regardless of where they are from, what immigration status they hold, and how much education they have completed – are less likely than native-born citizens to commit crimes or become incarcerated.

According to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, while the overall percentage of immigrants and the number of undocumented immigrants in the U.S. both increased between 1990 and 2016, the violent crime rate in the U.S. during that time plummeted 48 percent and the property crime rate dropped by 41 percent. More recent population and crime data from the Pew Research Center reveals the continuation of this trend. Studies have consistently found that immigrants are less likely to be incarcerated than native-born Americans and that there is a negative correlation between levels of immigration and crime rates.

Other studies have found that crime rates are lowest in states with the highest immigration growth rates, and that states with larger shares of undocumented immigrants tend to have lower crime rates than states with smaller shares.

The ADL also debunks myths about terrorism, non-citizen voting, public health, etc. Customs and Border Protection also post annual stats. While those numbers undoubtedly reflect growing border encounters, they do not show a great number of criminals coming across the border as a percentage of the total. This is a link to the obviously non-alarming crime numbers from CBP.

When pressed for numbers, the Trump campaign responds with anecdotes about specific crimes. In a nation of 330 million people, this is a terrible and misleading way to document anything. Spend a few minutes on the internet and one can find misleading instances of all sorts of horrible crimes committed by all sorts of trusted people -- mothers, coaches, teachers, priests, etc. Those specific cases would not necessarily make any generalizable point. 

Michael Light, the University of Wisconsin-Madison professor, said U.S. research overall does not indicate immigrants are more likely to commit crime.

"Of course, foreign-born individuals have committed crimes," Light said in an interview. "But do foreign-born individuals commit crime at a disproportionately higher rate than native-born individuals? The answer is pretty conclusively no."

 

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Firsts

Here are 2 striking paragraphs from a (free access) column by Kate Cohen in the WaPo earlier this month:

When [Kamala] Harris was born, 60 years ago this month, women could not serve on a jury in all 50 states. They had to have a male relative sign a business loan. They had no legal recourse against sexual harassment or marital rape. There was no no-fault divorce. They could get the pill, but only if they were married. They could not get a legal abortion unless their lives were in danger, and they could be fired for getting pregnant. They could not be admitted to Harvard College or the U.S. Military Academy or join their local Rotary, Kiwanis or Lions Club. Among the Fortune 500 companies, there was not a single female CEO.

To get to the point where she might become the first female U.S. president, Harris first had to become the first female district attorney of San Francisco, the first female attorney general of California and the first female vice president of the United States.

Many of my students are about 20 years old and do not know about events from 10 or 12 years ago. My guess is that even middle-aged adults won't realize the history mentioned here. 

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Republicans for Harris

In late August more than 235 Republicans who describe themselves as "alumni" of the campaigns or presidencies of George H.W. Bush, George W. Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney published a public letter explaining why they would not be voting for Donald Trump -- and would be voting for Kamala Harris. 

Here's a key part of their message:

Of course, we have plenty of honest, ideological disagreements with Vice President Harris and Gov. Walz. That’s to be expected. The alternative, however, is simply untenable. 

At home, another four years of Donald Trump’s chaotic leadership, this time focused on advancing the dangerous goals of Project 2025, will hurt real, everyday people and weaken our sacred institutions. 

Abroad, democratic movements will be irreparably jeopardized as Trump and his acolyte JD Vance kowtow to dictators like Vladimir Putin while turning their backs on our allies.

Earlier in the message, they blast Trump for lying about the results of the 2020 election and inciting an insurrection. They describe the crowd as "a mob of sore losers and sycophants."

I have an old friend who was part of the HW Bush administration, but I do not see his name on the list of signatories. From a conversation we had in the last year or so, I'm pretty sure he won't be voting for Trump. It's another step to say you are voting for Harris -- and to do so publicly as these individuals have done.

Incidentally, the list does not include Liz or Dick Cheney, though their positions on this are well-known. 

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Trump's Violent Fantasies

Donald Trump is back to his habit of fantasizing about the government (under his leadership) using illegal violence against criminals, immigrants, and/or political opponents. I blogged about this in 2019 when he was in office. I also compiled references to his violent rhetoric dating to the start of his first campaign in 2015 through 2019.

A couple of days ago in Erie, PA, Trump said something that sounded like the plot for "The Purge." It imagined a whole new level of violence:

"You know, if you had one day, like one real rough, nasty day," he said, during a section of the speech about how left-wing politicians are allegedly preventing police from enforcing the law, "one rough hour, and I mean real rough, the word will get out and it will end immediately. End immediately. You know, it'll end immediately."

Trump defenders say that the former president was speaking "in jest," but it didn't seem like a joke (watch below) and is entirely consistent with comments he has made over the years. Plus, populists employing similar authoritarian rhetoric have actually empowered death squads in various countries around the world. In the Philippines, for example, 1000s of people were killed by the police during a war on drugs and crime authorized by a newly elected populist right-wing president. A similar pattern emerged in Brazil in 2019 where the police killed 17 people per day, on average. 

In those deaths, the police act as judge, jury, and executioner. So much for constitutional protections like due process of law and prohibitions on cruel and unusual punishment. How is it conservative to abandon the bill of rights? 

If you want to skip straight to the quoted message in the video below, you cannot, because Trump starts with "one real rough, nasty day" around 2:15, gets off-track with a made-up anecdote about Kamala Harris (referencing a decriminalization law signed by Arnold Schwarzenegger years before Harris was elected to state or national office), and then around 3:25 into the video mentions "one rough hour, and I mean real rough." The first few minutes ramble through some complaints about debate moderators and some made-up stuff about crime. He criticizes statistics, though candidate Trump often references (made up or out-of-date) statistics to support his points.

That last linked article from the Washington Post notes that crime statistics have been in general decline since the 1990s, but did spike in 2020, Trump's final year of office (during the pandemic). Crime stats remained a bit high until 2022, but have declined substantially since then. 

 

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Golden Championship Era

With the KC Royals now likely to make the baseball playoffs and the defending champion KC Chiefs opening the 2024 football season with a victory, I've been thinking about the recent Golden Age for KC-area teams. In the most important competitions that I follow (major league baseball World Series, football Super Bowl, University of Kansas debate and Kansas basketball), these are key results from the last 17 years, 2008-2024:

2024 KC Chiefs win Super Bowl

2023 KC Chiefs win Super Bowl

2022 Kansas Jayhawks win NCAA basketball Tournament

2020 KC Chiefs win Super Bowl

2018 Kansas Jayhawks win National Debate Tournament (NDT)

2015 KC Royals win World Series

2009 Kansas Jayhawks win National Debate Tournament (NDT)

2008 Kansas Jayhawks win NCAA basketball Tournament

That's 8 championship teams!

The Super Bowl victories could be dated for the prior seasons since the overwhelming majority of games occur then, which would make those 2019, 2022, and 2023. That's how Wikipedia lists them.

The last 10 years have been particularly great, but those years could have been even better:

2024 Kansas Jayhawks lose in finals of NDT (2nd place)
2021 KC Chiefs lose Super Bowl (2nd place)

2018 Kansas Jayhawks lose in Final Four of NCAA basketball Tournament 

2016 Kansas Jayhawks lose in finals of NDT (2nd place)

2014 KC Royals lose World Series in 7 games (2nd place)

2012 Kansas Jayhawks lose in finals of NCAA basketball Tournament (2nd place)

That's 6 more near-misses, creating good chances to win a championship 14 times in 18 years!

It was a bit slower before then. This is from 1980 through 2007, a 28 year period:

2003 Kansas Jayhawks lose in finals of NCAA basketball Tournament (2nd place)

2002 Kansas Jayhawks lose in Final Four of NCAA basketball Tournament 

1993 Kansas Jayhawks lose in Final Four of NCAA basketball Tournament 

1991 Kansas Jayhawks lose in finals of NCAA basketball Tournament (2nd place)

1988 Kansas Jayhawks win NCAA basketball Tournament

1986 Kansas Jayhawks lose in Final Four of NCAA basketball Tournament 

1985 KC Royals win World Series 

1983 Kansas Jayhawks win National Debate Tournament

1980 KC Royals lose World Series in 6 games (2nd place)

That's only 9 opportunities in 28 years, with just 3 championships. 

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Dick Cheney is Voting for Kamala Harris

Former Vice President Dick Cheney has often been criticized on this blog. However, the Cheney family agrees with me about the threat Donald Trump poses to democracy. Liz Cheney famously co-headed the January 6 Committee. Now, Dick Cheney is speaking out:

"In our nation’s 248-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump. He tried to steal the last election using lies and violence to keep himself in power after the voters had rejected him. He can never be trusted with power again. As citizens, we each have a duty to put country above partisanship to defend our Constitution. That is why I will be casting my vote for Vice President Kamala Harris," said on Friday, September 6, Dick Cheney in an interview with the media.

The odd wording in that last phrase likely indicates the extent to which AI is being used to put together stories on the web. It's not great. 

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MIchigan Travel (and Beer) update

Note: This is an update/revision of an older post.

October 4 update: we returned to Michigan for fall break, so I'm editing this post from August. 

Thus summer, my wife and I enjoyed our "annual" vacation Michigan trip July 10th to 22nd. We had a brief visit to Kalamazoo in April so that info is also listed below. And we were in the Detroit area one night in late May before entering Canada. [Plus fall break September 27-October 1.]

This year during the vacation, we dined with old KU friends in Mt. Pleasant on the first day, spent a couple of days in the Grand Rapids, Holland, and South Haven area (visiting Meijer Gardens and various restaurants and brewpubs), went up to Traverse City for six nights, and then returned to stay in Holland for a couple more days. Also, we again stopped on the way home at Shapiro's in Indianapolis and bought some bagels for home. 

We have a lot of Michigan traditions and I'm not going to use this post to mention them all. And we certainly enjoyed some new experiences as well, such as visiting Sleeping Bear Dunes. We attended a movie at the "new" Traverse City Film Festival, which occurs now on Tuesdays. Michael Moore and the director zoomed in for an hour or so after the film. 

Beyond the vacation details, this post is mostly about Michigan beer. Basically, I'm using this post to summarize my recent and prior visits to Michigan brewpubs. This is one instance where Google Timeline information is helpful. I'm not listing breweries where I didn't have at least one drink. We entered a couple this year to look into buying singles -- or in one case decided not to stay for dinner since they were having a loud celebratory event.  

Given that Michigan has over 400 breweries, my personal list includes less than 5% of the total! I could move to Michigan and have a difficult time sampling all of them. 

2024 (5 new; 24 total) (new ones in bold)

Latitude 42°, Kalamazoo (April trip)

Big Lake Brewing, Holland

Brass Ring Brewing, Grand Rapids

Two Guys Brewing, Grand Rapids

Short's Brewing, Elk Rapids location

Filling Station Brewing, Traverse  City

Workshop Brewing, Traverse City

Infinity Brewing, Traverse City (September)

Jolly Pumpkin Brewing, Traverse City (September)

Loco Boys Brewing, Traverse City (September)

We dined at all of these except Short's, where I mainly wanted to try the new Payne Pils (pictured above). Latitude 42 and Brass Ring had the best food though we liked our meals at Big Lake and Workshop. The wait and service at Filling Station had us questioning our choice. Incidentally, we've now also visited beer friendly HopCat locations in Grand Rapids (2 different locations), Ann Arbor, Detroit, Holland, Kalamazoo, and Louisville (sadly now closed permanently). 

October Update: The food was OK to good at both Infinity and Jolly Pumpkin, but Loco Boys was closer to very good/exceptional. They serve Mexican food! 

2023 (1 new; 19 total)

Griffin Claw, Rochester Hills near Detroit

Brewery Vivant, Grand Rapids

Founders, Grand Rapids

Brewery Vivant may have the best brewpub food we've found in Michigan. 

2022 (4 new; 18 total)

Odd Side Ales, Grand Haven

Unruly Brewing, Muskegon

Rare Bird Brewing, Traverse City

Cherry Republic Brewing Company & Public House, Glen Arbor

Founders, Grand Rapids

We dined at all of those places, though at Odd Side we had to order takeout from a nearby restaurant. They don't have food. 

2021 (2 new; 14 total)

Big Lake Brewing, Holland

Guardian Brewing, Saugatuck

Brewery Vivant, Grand Rapids

We also dined at all of these.

2019 (2 new; 12 total)

New Holland Brewing, Holland

Big Lake Brewing, Holland

Clam Lake Beer Company, Cadillac (2)

Filling Station, Traverse City

Workshop Brewing, Traverse City

MiddleCoast Brewing, Traverse City (was called Monkey Fist at the time)

We did not dine at Big Lake or MiddleCoast, but both have food (I think).

2018 (2 new; 10 total)

Workshop Brewing, Traverse City

Clam Lake Beer Company, Cadillac

Filling Station, Traverse City

We dined at these.

2017

I was on antibiotics that trip and did not visit any brewpubs and avoided alcohol. 

2016 (2 new; 8 total)

Saugatuck Brewing, Saugatuck

Filling Station, Traverse City

2015 (2 new ones, 6 total)

Short's Brewing, Bellaire

Rare Bird, Traverse City

We dined at these.

Older trips: (at least 4 visited, from memory)

New Holland Brewing, Holland

Mackinaw Brewing, Traverse City

North Peak, Traverse City

Jolly Pumpkin, Traverse City

We did not dine at Jolly Pumpkin, but they have food -- and various other locations across the state.

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Portland

In July, my spouse and I traveled to Portland to link with our youngest daughter (and her boyfriend). While out there we also saw my spouse's father, her brother, and an old friend of mine from graduate school, Paul (a former blogger here (!) and best man at my wedding decades ago). 

We had a nice outing along the Columbia River Gorge, stopping at Cape Horn: 

 

In addition to visiting Powell's Books, I tried to drink some good beers in that terrific beer city. For example, I had the World Beer Cup winning Australian pale ale, Dragontail IPA, and the World Beer Cup winning Nonalcoholic Deschutes Black Butte Porter.  The latter was consumed at the brewpub in the Pearl District. 

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Canadian Film Festival

In late May my spouse and I drove to Canada and attended the Blue Mountain Film Festival at the ski resort just outside of Collingwood. From there we ventured over to Toronto for a few days, took in a Blue Jays game versus the Orioles, and then had a final stop in Rochester for a few days. 

At the film festival we saw three very good films. I think the best was probably Girls Will Be Girls, though I also really enjoyed The Missile and the Teacher Who Promised the Sea. These were all international films and each arguably offered some lessons about global politics.

The Orioles easily won the matchup against the Jays, but the home team was giving away Vlad Guerrero bobble head dolls and Vlad hit a HR that night. Loyal readers may recall that I saw Vlad on a Michigan vacation years ago (2017!) when he was playing for the Lansing Lugnuts. Bo Bichette was a teammate on both occasions.

In Toronto we enjoyed walking around downtown and in the Beaches neighborhood. We had some excellent ethnic food including Indian and Thai. Departing Canada, we crossed and visited Niagara Falls from the NY side.

In Rochester we ate some delicious local strawberries, some on a short cake served with ice cream and whipped cream, and drank a very tasty local beer, Unfettered Soul from Strangebird, that recently won a Bronze for its Hazy IPA at the World Beer Cup. 

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Blood of Angels

Until tonight, I think the last film I saw in a theater was "Little Women," which would have been December 2019 -- in Long Island, when COVID was secretly circulating in the greater NY area. We didn't get sick, but the pandemic kept me out of theaters for years. Inertia and home streaming kept me away even longer, though I live just a couple of blocks from a movie house.

Tonight, my spouse and I attended a local showing of "Blood of Angels" by Bobby Fowler (and friends), son of two of my colleagues in Political Science. It was a really fun evening and I'll be going back to the movies sooner rather than later. The movie seemed quite professional, and I mean that as sincere praise. 

Here's the trailer: 

 

It is a western, obviously, but also a thriller. Every scene was shot on the farm my colleagues inhabit -- and the film features their horses as well as their children. Mom has a prominent role too!

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2024A Louisville Sluggers

This post is going to highlight the fantasy baseball team I've built for the first half (A) season of the OBFLB (Original Bitnet Fantasy Baseball League). As I've explained before, this is a 24 team league I joined in 1991 and we play 2 seasons each year, divided basically by the all-star break. There is an annual mid-year draft.

It features head-to-head competition in 10 categories. Five are offensive -- HR, steals, plate appearances, on base percentage, and "runs produced" (runs + RBI / ABs). Five are pitching -- ERA, WHIP, wins, innings pitched, and 2xSaves plus Holds. 

I'll note the 8 players I retained from last year in red and will indicate draft rounds for the other players. 

Lineup

C Will Smith LAD

1B Vinnie Pasquantino KC

2B Isaac Paredes TB

3B Gunnar Henderson BAL

SS Anthony Volpe NYY

OF Ronald Acuna ATL

OF Kerry Carpenter DET (10)

OF Will Benson CIN (14)

DH Jordan Westburg BAL (13)

Bench

C Freddy Fermin KC (26)

2B Michael Massey KC (23)

UT Zack McKinstry DET (21)

OF Trent Grisham (20)

OF Roman Anthony BOS (22)

OF Jason Hayward LAD (24)

OF Estevan Florial CLE (28)

Pitching

SP Sonny Gray STL

SP Nick Pivetta BOS (9)

SP Seth Lugo KC (11)

SP Luis Severino NYM (12)

SP Reynaldo Lopez ATL (15)

SP Clarke Schmidt NYY (16)

SP Keaton Winn SF (19)

SP Matt Waldron SD (25)

RP Adbert Alzolay CHC 

RP Hunter Harvey WAS (17)

RP Jason Adam TB (18)

RP Steven Wilson CHX (27)

My 2023B season team won the championship, which I'm fairly sure I did not previously note on the blog. I had also won in 2021 A (linked above) and the only carryovers from that team are C W. Smith, OF Acuna, and SP Gray. 

In total, the Sluggers have won 11 World Series (in 14 appearances) competing in 65 championship seasons. Another team (the Men of LA) has 10 titles in 16 appearances, but the teams have never met in the World Series. We have met at least once in the playoffs when Men of LA beat the Sluggers in 2021 B. Prior to 2012 the playoff matchups are not clearly delineated in the records.   


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Oscars 2024

This is my annual post about the Academy Awards. I'm not predicting who will win, but instead ranking the nominations in my preferred order of finish. I'll only rank the films and performances I've seen and will update this list in the future once I see a film. Those changes will be noted in yellow highlights. 

You can find my post about last year's Oscars here and work backward if you want. 

Best picture

“Killers of the Flower Moon”

“Oppenheimer”

“Anatomy of a Fall”

“Poor Things”

“Past Lives”

“The Holdovers”

“American Fiction”

“The Zone of Interest”

“Maestro”

“Barbie”

Frankly I'd be OK if any of the top 4 5 6 win. They are all very good films. The Holdovers is the one I could imagine watching again in a few years because of the humor. Maybe Barbie too. Oppenheimer conceivably could be a film for my political science course.

Update: Poor Things was terrific with lots of interesting stuff going on. It explores some of the same themes about science as Oppenheimer but in a very different manner.

Update 2: Anatomy of a Fall is an exceptional film that I watched in late August 2024. It's very long, but I could imagine seeing it again though I suppose the resolution to the mystery at the center of the film won't be a surprise the next time I see it. 

Zone of Interest could also be a film for my course, but it is almost impossible to rate here. It is a singular work of art that is not meant to be entertaining. The other films that feature horrible deeds, including Killers of the Flower Moon, have moments of light humor. The Zone of Interest is unrelenting, but also masterful. See it once. 

Directing

Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”

Yorgos Lanthimos, “Poor Things”

Justine Triet, “Anatomy of a Fall”

Jonathan Glazer, “The Zone of Interest”

Martin Scorsese, “Killers of the Flower Moon”

I flip-flopped some of the top films here and it might be mysterious why I did this. It would probably take too long to explain, but some of the rankings of the movies as movies reflect the writing, the acting, the cinematography etc. In this category, I have attempted to weigh the factors that the directors most directly control. It's subjective. 

Actor in a leading role

Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”

Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”

Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction”

Colman Domingo, “Rustin”

Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”

Giamatti was excellent. He may not win, but the performance was award-worthy.

I've seen a lot of Murphy in 2024 because my spouse and I have watched several seasons of Peaky Blinders on Netflix. He's talented and I would not be disappointed if he won.

Wright and Domingo were also excellent though I have not heard serious buzz about their winning and I probably would vote for one of the other performances. But this is a tight category. 

Cooper was fine but the movie really didn't click with me. 

Actor in a supporting role

Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”

Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”

Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things”

Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction”

Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”

We were well into the movie before I recognized Downey in his role. It's a very good performance. 

DeNiro played his usual type, a type he has long perfected. Brown was excellent too. I hope this pushes him into larger roles.

Gosling has had many better roles.

Actress in a leading role

Emma Stone, “Poor Things”

Sandra Hüller, “Anatomy of a Fall”

Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”

Annette Bening, “Nyad”

Carey Mulligan, “Maestro”

Last fall, my spouse and I saw Gladstone in a 2016 Kelly Reichardt film, Certain Women. It was a strong performance and I'm not surprised she delivered an Oscar-caliber performance this year. It's not as loud as Bening's role. If I had to re-rank them from scratch, I could just as easily put Mulligan over Bening. Update: Emma Stone was excellent, as was Sandra Hüller. 

Actress in a supporting role

America Ferrera, “Barbie”

Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”

Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”

Jodie Foster, “Nyad”

I don't have strong feelings here though apparently Randolph is the overwhelming favorite. She was very good in her role. I've seen Ferrera's speech more than once on TV and wonder if it will carry her to a victory. It was impressive. 

Blunt was fine, but the role was perhaps not Oscar-worthy. Surprisingly, Foster was somewhat mannered in Nyad, delivering a character not a lot unlike some others she has performed in the past. 

Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”

Documentary feature film

So far we have not seen any of these. There's work to do, no none of them sound especially uplifting. Most are available on streaming services that we can access, so it is inevitable that I will see some.

“Bobi Wine: The People’s President”

“The Eternal Memory”

“Four Daughters”

“To Kill a Tiger”

“20 Days in Mariupol”

International feature film

United Kingdom, “The Zone of Interest”

Spain, “Society of the Snow”

Germany, “The Teachers’ Lounge”

I've discussed The Zone of Interest above. I am curious as to why it is listed as UK rather than Poland, which is credited in the film.

Society of the Snow is an interesting film (on Netflix right now) that had me recalling the press coverage of the crash and aftermath. The Teacher's Lounge was well-made, but I thought the tone was over-the-top for the setting. Maybe I'm jaded by American schools where "zero tolerance" brings to mind the threat of gun violence. 

Of the others, I really want to see The Zone of Interest, which is also on the top list above. 

Italy, “Io Capitano”

Japan, “Perfect Days”

Animated feature film

I have not watched many animated films the past few years. I saw a few minutes of the new Spider-Man at a brewpub and will probably see it before any of the others. 

“The Boy and the Heron”

“Elemental”

“Nimona”

“Robot Dreams”

“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”

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