The Cuban Missile Report

Tonight, I went with a group of friends to see the Louisville Bats against the Gwinnett Braves. Behind Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman, the Bats won 7-0.

Much-discussed prospect Chapman struck out 7 in five innings. More importantly, he issued only one walk and was generally in control of the strike zone -- so long as you don't worry about the 2 or 3 times he threw the ball above his catcher all the way back to the screen (officially, he issued 2 Wild Pitches, which require men on base). Many of his pitches, especially early in the game, were clocked at nearly 100 mph. He bested that mark a few times, including one pitch of 103 mph that was met with cheers from the crowd.

The game was supposed to start at 7 pm, but it was nearly 7:45 when the first pitch was thrown. Louisville suffered a brief thunderstorm prior to the event. My friends and I took advantage of the time to enjoy the $1 pre-game brews at Brownings.

Though Chapman was long gone, we stayed through the final out (partly redeeming my early exit from Saturday's game). Whatever the claimed attendance, there were very few fans in the stands at the end.


Visit this blog's homepage.

Berry, LeCure and the Bats

Yesterday, I went to Louisville Slugger field a bit early to check out honky tonk singer Johnny Berry as part of Budweiser's $2 "craft beer" promotion. Berry sounded great, but he stopped playing at 5:30 even though the game began at 6:05.

In the game, pitcher Sam LeCure dominated the visiting Scranton/Wilkes-Barre Yankees. He was perfect through 4 innings, but then walked 2 batters in the fifth when it appeared that he had lost his rhythm. Unfortunately, I had to leave the game at that point to have dinner with my oldest daughter, but I caught some of the game on the radio and learned later that LeCure threw a 1-hitter rather than a no-no. The final score was 5-0.


Visit this blog's homepage.

Rand Paul

Kentucky held a primary yesterday that received national attention thanks to the participation and victory of "tea party"-backed Senate candidate Rand Paul, son of libertarian Representative Ron Paul of Texas. The seat is currently held by Republican Jim Bunning, a Hall of Fame former baseball pitcher. The race was noteworthy because Mitch McConnell's preferred (and groomed) candidate, Secretary of State Trey Greyson lost the race.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic ballot, state Attorney General Jack Conway defeated Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo and won his party's nomination for the same Senate race. Rob Farley declared this "Good news from Kentucky... Conway is more progressive than Mongiardo and polls better; against the Randernaut he might have a chance."

Frankly, I suspect most Kentuckians know little about Rand Paul. I'm also betting that Conway will make sure that voters learn a lot more before November.

What's to know?

Like his better-known father, Rand opposed the Iraq war -- and he thinks the "murky" Afghan war needs to be formally declared by Congress. Those are defensible positions, but they are clearly not reflective of Republican policy in the last decade.

Many of the policies Rand and Ron Paul reject were proposed and implemented by Republicans in power during the Bush era: bank bailouts, deficit spending, war without end, etc. This is likely why Dick Cheney supported Greyson in the primary and why neoconservatives are alleged to be upset by his prospects for success.

Indeed, Paul himself says that he typically agrees with his father on policy issues:

Washington Wire: Are there any areas where you disagree with your father’s views on issues?

Paul: There are some minor areas where we disagree.

He then notes that his father will sometimes introduce an earmark, while he thinks "the whole system is broken down, and it’s my opinion that we shouldn’t put earmarks on bills."

He thinks drugs should be a state issue, which is an evasive way of saying that the federal government shouldn't make them illegal. Right?

Libertarians oppose drug laws, but what about health and safety issues? How much should the federal government do to help save lives? The New York Times Magazine asked him this question in April:

But in light of your distrust of the federal government, where are you on an issue like seat belts? Federal legislation requiring people to wear seat belts could obviously save lives.

I think the federal government shouldn’t be involved. I don’t want to live in a nanny state where people are telling me where I can go and what I can do.

The "nanny state" is a line used by people who don't think the government should try to limit tobacco consumption, promote better nutrition, etc. However, these examples may also mask antipathy towards environmental regulations, occupational safety and health standards, minimum wage laws, etc.

Paul has a somewhat dystopian view of the economy and is fairly cynical about the culture as well:

I see us in the latter stages of the Roman empire, when you have bread and circuses to placate the mob... I think there’s a danger that we could destroy our currency and be like 1923 in Germany, with the Weimar currency, with money in wheelbarrows. Germany was a civilized country in Europe, and they destroyed their currency and then elected Hitler, so things have happened before and they could happen again.

Paul certainly isn't a Keynesian as he favors a constitutional amendment to balance the budget. He is "worried that the deficit will consume our nation."

The bipartisan Keynesian economics we witnessed in 2008-2009 reflected legitimate concerns that the banking and credit system would collapse without emergency assistance, thus destroying the economy and provoking another Great Depression.

I cannot wait to hear what Paul has to say about that topic, as well as aid to Israel, farm subsidies, Social Security (!), public education, etc.

Helpfully, Trey Greyson's campaign maintained a website of "randpaulstrangeideas.com." It seems to have been taken down, but the google cache of the central issues is still available for now. Here's an idea of what it used to look like.


Visit this blog's homepage.

I briefly ducked out...

Recently, on the Duck of Minerva group international relations (IR) blog, I wrote these posts:

Thursday, May 13, "DVD review; 'Capitalism: A Love Story,'" which is obviously my take on Michael Moore's latest film. I'm a big fan of his work, but this movie was flawed.

Saturday, May 1, I posted "Threat inflation: intergalactic edition." The post considers whether IR scholars should take UFO/alien threats seriously. Some major scholars have taken UFOs seriously and Stephen Hawking suggests this might be a good idea.

April 22 featured my post "Information," which is about the problems of secrecy and mystery (in addition to "known unknowns," Rumsfeld's "unknown unknowns") in IR. The piece was specifically tied to the recent explosive sinking of a South Korean naval vessel near North Korean waters.


Visit this blog's homepage.

Oil spill

Google engineer Paul Rademacher has generated a valuable visual aid to help people understand the magnitude of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The spill is spewing at least 200,000 gallons of oil per day, which is important to keep in mind since his map is based on an estimate of the size on May 6 (one week ago).

Visitors to his webpage can enter any location in the world to get an idea of the size of the spill relative to territory they know.

By the way, some private sources estimate that the spill could be discharging 10 times as much oil as officials are saying publicly.

It's an environmental calamity.


Visit this blog's homepage.

Meeting Carbon Targets

Wednesday, Kevin Drum blogged about the impressive U.S. reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. The near 10% reduction over the past two years has very little to do with policy decisions made by the new Democratic administration. Rather, this reflects continued decline in economic activity, as well as reduced energy intensity, and increased use of cleaner energy (promoted in the stimulus package). Drum says that those three explanations contributed about one-third each.

The accompanying image is very revealing.

This is a terrific jumpstart towards bigger reductions in the future, though the challenge will be to fulfill greater energy demand with non-fossil fuel sources once the economy is growing steadily again.


Visit this blog's homepage.

Bike to Work Month

May is Bike to Work Month and various groups in Louisville are promoting it. At University of Louisville, I've joined fellow Sustainability Council members as part of a group challenge on the Greenlight website.

It will be difficult for me to accumulate miles as I do not actually go into the office all that often in May. The semester ends prior to the Kentucky Derby. My grading is finished and I'm working on the Grawemeyer entries for 2011 and some writing and research projects.

May 21 is Bike to Work Day if you want to join in the festivities.


Visit this blog's homepage.

Bad Press

Yesterday, soon after awakening on a rainy weekend morning, I went outdoors to pick up the newspaper. The bagged Sunday paper was heavy with ads, so I immediately sorted the recyclables from the sections with real content.

Very quickly, I noticed that the sports section, which I usually read first during baseball season, was missing. That's not good in Louisville, the day after the Kentucky Derby.

The front section was also missing.

The Metro section was not included. The only sections included in the bag were those that could be printed in advance -- like the television listings, real estate ads, and Features section.

I found the customer service number in Saturday's paper and dialed it to complain, but a recorded voice said the newspaper had a technical problem and missing sections would not be delivered until after noon. Later, the paper's webpage said a "press failure" explained non-delivery to thousands of customers. Ironically, one section customers did receive included a piece from the publisher touting the paper's circulation rate -- to readers "passionate about our products."

Finally, this morning, the missing sections were delivered with the Monday paper.

I'm sure thousands of out-of-town Derby visitors were unfavorably impressed by the Sunday paper this weekend. The paper's special Derby insert will not be a valued souvenir for those who left town before the company managed to print the news of Saturday's race.

The size of the paper and the diversity of the local writing staff has been in steep decline for years (thanks most recently to ad revenues lost to Craigslist and Ebay), but this was a ridiculous moment for the paper.


Visit this blog's homepage.

Baseball Players tell Arizona to Repeal the Law

The new Arizona immigration law has received a lot of attention in the short time since it was signed into law in late April. As the BBC notes, the law "will require state police to question people about their immigration status if there is 'reasonable suspicion'.

The bill - which takes effect in 90 days - also makes it a crime under state law to be in the US illegally."

Yesterday, the Major League Baseball Player's Association announced its formal opposition to the law. In a press release, Executive Director Michael Weiner, summarized the player's union opposition:

“The recent passage by Arizona of a new immigration law could have a negative impact on hundreds of Major League players who are citizens of countries other than the United States....

The international players on the Diamondbacks work and, with their families, reside in Arizona from April through September or October. In addition, during the season, hundreds of international players on opposing Major League teams travel to Arizona to play the Diamondbacks. And, the spring training homes of half of the 30 Major League teams are now in Arizona. All of these players, as well as their families, could be adversely affected, even though their presence in the United States is legal. Each of them must be ready to prove, at any time, his identity and the legality of his being in Arizona to any state or local official with suspicion of his immigration status. This law also may affect players who are U.S. citizens but are suspected by law enforcement of being of foreign descent."

The MLBPA "opposes this law as written" and calls for prompt repeal or modification.

Some voices are already calling for baseball to move the 2011 All-Star game, slated to be played in Phoenix. White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen has announced that he will not participate in the game. A number of current players have also spoken out against the law and mentioned their concerns about playing in Arizona.

About four and a half years ago, I noted a small number of athletes involved in progressive causes, including one baseball player openly opposed to the Iraq war. The latest reaction is timely and apparently provokes broader concerns.


Visit this blog's homepage.

10 Best Dan Aykroyd Movies?

Last weekend, a friend and former student declared that "The Blues Brothers" was one of the ten greatest movies of all time. As I'm not a huge fan of the film and am something of a smart ass, I flippantly countered by saying that "Blues Brothers" wasn't even one of the ten best Dan Aykroyd movies.

Thanks to IMDB and web access, I'm finally trying to compile a list to test my assertion. Here's what I found:

"Ghost Busters" (1984)
"Driving Miss Daisy" (1989)
"Trading Places" (1983)
"The Rutles: All You Need is Cash" (1978)
"Chaplin" (1992)
"Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom" (1984)
"Sneakers" (1992)
"Grosse Point Blank" (1997)

That's only eight films. Worse, IMBD users rate "Blues Brothers" 7.9, admittedly higher than the ratings for most of these films. However, I still don't think "Blues Brothers" is all that great. It certainly wouldn't make my top 100 movies.

It would have been much easier to compile a list of 10 alternatives if Bill Murray had been in "Blues Brothers." Aykroyd has been in a lot of dreck

Indeed, look at some of Aykroyd's dubious comedic choices:

"1941"
"My Stepmother is an Alien"
"Spies Like Us"
"Dragnet"
"Coneheads"

And those are some of the better ones (I saw three of those films at the theater!).


Visit this blog's homepage.

Derby weekend

This Saturday, Louisville's Churchill Downs will host the 136th Kentucky Derby, typically called the most exciting two minutes in sports.

I've never been to the track for the Derby, but I usually watch the race on TV and experience some of the other related events. "Thunder Over Louisville" ("the largest annual pyrotechnics display in North America") is visible from my house and today I saw a bit of the Pegasus Parade.

This year, some locals are already buzzing about the forthcoming film "Secretariat," which will tell the story of the greatest racing horse of them all -- the 1973 Triple Crown Winner. The film is slated to debut in October.

The 1973 Belmont Stakes was perhaps the greatest sporting achievement I've witnessed in my life:



View the film's trailer.

Visit this blog's homepage.

More upside of the downturn

A few times since the recession began, I've noted some good news associated with the slowed economy. Reduced economic activity means fewer greenhouse gas emissions and reduced traffic deaths. It might also put pressure on authoritarian regimes that have staked their legitimacy on growth -- such as China.

Of course, difficult economic times also have horrific human consequences, bringing unemployment to millions of people, worsening poverty, etc. On balance, even most radical anti-growth greens would prefer steady (sustainable) economic activity to painful contraction.

In any case, I saw another news item (NYT link) last week that served as another data point for the upside of the downturn. Motorcycle deaths are plunging:

Motorcycle deaths in the United States fell steeply last year, according to a new study.

After 11 straight years of increase, motorcycle traffic fatalities are projected to decline by at least 10 percent nationally in 2009, the Governors Highway Safety Association announced in a report [PDF] released on Thursday.

I realize this reduction in motorcycle deaths is merely a subset of traffic mortality rates, but the new data does appear to indicate a second year of reduced driving and death.

Indeed, it appears 2009 will have the lowest motorcycle fatality rate on record, and much of this is attributed to the decline in leisure travel related to the economy. In all, the GHSA press release noted that about 500 fewer people died in 2009 compared to 2008.

According to GHSA Chairman Vernon Betkey, “Clearly the economy played a large role in motorcycle deaths declining in 2009. Less disposable income translates into fewer leisure riders

Some of the reduced deaths were attributed to poor weather, which makes for undesirable motorbiking.

Moreover, the report also noted that some areas of the country experienced increased riding, partly because some people use motorcycles for transportation rather than cars or SUVs to avoid high fuel costs.


Visit this blog's homepage.

Read this before you flush

April 22 was Earth Day, and I let the occasion pass without a blog post. Let's see if I can make up for it.

One huge problem environmentalists face is that everyday taken-for-granted consumption habits can have an enormous cumulative effect on the planet's ecology.

Consider the use of toilet paper, for example. The May/June 2010 issue of World Watch Magazine* included an informative piece by Noelle Robbins on the destructive environmental impact of toilet paper.

Global demand is, um, overflowing, thanks to population growth and adoption of western habits throughout the developing world:

In 2005, according to the marketing analysis firm RISI, world per-capita consumption of toilet paper was 3.8 kilograms. But the range is wide-North American per-capita consumption was highest at 23 kilograms; the lowest reported was Africa, at 0.4 kilograms-and consumption growth could be closing the gap. In 2008, China and Western Europe saw toilet tissue growth rates of 5 percent, followed by Eastern Europe at 4 percent growth and Japan and Africa at 3 percent. North American consumption remained stable.

It takes a lot of trees to make toilet paper for the entire planet, which puts tremendous pressure on forests and habitats around the world -- and destroys a valuable carbon sink as well:

Worldwide, the equivalent of almost 270,000 trees is either flushed or dumped in landfills every day, according to Claude Martin of WWF (Worldwide Fund for Nature). Roughly 10 percent of that total is attributable to toilet paper.

The Natural Resources Defense Council estimates that toilet paper accounts for about 15% of deforestation worldwide.

The solution would appear to be more recycling -- of office paper and newspaper, of course. The US alone will throw away and bury nearly 15 million tons of reusable paper this decade, which is about 60 percent of what it uses. Only 40% is recycled, despite the obvious advantages:

according to the [University of Colorado's Environmental] Center, one ton of recycled paper (909 kilograms) saves 3,700 pounds (1,682 kilograms) of lumber and 24,000 gallons (90,849 liters) of water; uses 64 percent less energy and 50 percent less water to produce; creates 74 percent less air pollution; saves 17 trees; and creates five times more jobs than one ton of paper products from virgin wood pulp.

TP made of recycled paper is typically not as white or comfortable as the non-recycled kind, but that reflects manufacturing decisions and is not necessarily inherent to the enterprise. Obviously, however, consumer demand plays a large role in these consumption decisions. Advertising may well play a significant role in shaping consumer desires.

Offices, stadiums, and other public facilities already rely upon recycled paper, so this is really an individual consumer choice for their homes. Put simply, more of us need to demand higher quality recycled TP -- and buy it.

Happy Earth Day.


*World Watch magazine is another casualty of the current recession, which has been hitting journalism particularly hard. The May/June 2010 issue is the next-to-last to be published.

The Chemical & Engineering News piece I linked at the end of this post suggests that the recession is reducing the supply of recycled paper too...


Visit this blog's homepage.

Blog upkeep.

I discovered yesterday that my archives do not seem to include my earliest posts from September 2003. A handful or so are missing.

In trying to figure out what went wrong, I've been applying titles to those posts -- inserting them on a title line that Blogger was not providing at that time. I figure as I save the new title, Blogger will now tell me if there's a technical problem with an individual post. Nothing so far, however.

In any case, I linked yesterday to a deficit piece I wrote in my first week of blogging that wasn't showing up. I had to find it through the "edit posts" section of Blogger. Hmmmm.

I wonder if other posts are missing from the archives for different months?


Visit this blog's homepage.

Tea Party vs. The Facts

For weeks, I've meant to link to Bruce Bartlett's Forbes piece on the beliefs of the tea party participants. Bartlett was last seen on this blog more than 4 years ago as a conservative critic of Bush's policies. Bartlett was a domestic policy aide to Ronald Reagan and is something of a deficit hawk.

However, despite apparent shared ideals, Bartlett cannot abide the tea party movement. He reports the results of a survey of tea party members revealing their poor grasp of basic tax and spend issues:

Tea Partyers were asked how much the federal government gets in taxes as a percentage of the gross domestic product. According to Congressional Budget Office data, acceptable answers would be 6.4%, which is the percentage for federal income taxes; 12.7%, which would be for both income taxes and Social Security payroll taxes; or 14.8%, which would represent all federal taxes as a share of GDP in 2009...

Tuesday's Tea Party crowd, however, thought that federal taxes were almost three times as high as they actually are. The average response was 42% of GDP and the median 40%. The highest figure recorded in all of American history was half those figures: 20.9% at the peak of World War II in 1944.

There's a lot more like that. In fact, the group members being off by a factor of 3 was actually low compared to another data point:

To follow up, Tea Partyers were asked how much they think a typical family making $50,000 per year pays in federal income taxes. The average response was $12,710, the median $10,000. In percentage terms this means a tax burden of between 20% and 25% of income...

According to calculations by the Joint Committee on Taxation, a congressional committee, tax filers with adjusted gross incomes between $40,000 and $50,000 have an average federal income tax burden of just 1.7%. Those with adjusted gross incomes between $50,000 and $75,000 have an average burden of 4.2%.

Even if the respondent was assuming no exemptions, itemized deductions, or other reductions in tax burden, the Tea Party respondents were still significantly off the mark.

a single person with $50,000 in taxable income last year would owe $8,694 in federal income taxes, and a married couple filing jointly would owe $6,669.

Read the entire piece as Bartlett provides a lot of specific detail to debunk the mythical views held by the tea party members.

This is a pretty important fact they seem to have missed: "federal taxes are very considerably lower by every measure since Obama became president." About 40% of the stimulus package was just tax cuts, mostly for 2010.

And this: "No taxpayer anywhere in the country had his or her taxes increased as a consequence of Obama's policies."

Bartlett speculates that anger about the deficit gets mistranslated to anger about taxes. Frankly, I suspect the tea party concerns about the deficit reflect a complete failure to understand basic Keynesian economics. Government deficits are necessary during economic contraction to stimulate demand not provided in the private sector.


Visit this blog's homepage.

End of Term Film Festival

Believe it or not, today is the last day of classes at University of Louisville. Tomorrow is reading day and exams begin Friday. I actually gave an exam yesterday and will receive take home exams from my graduate students early next week. So, I have plenty of grading to finish before the semester is really concluded.

As this term comes to its end, I've been screening some films on DVD for potential use in a special undergraduate section of my film course. This fall, I'll be teaching it as one of the Department's capstone course offerings (POLS 495).

Sunday night, I watched Quentin Tarantino's "Inglourious Basterds." In the final scene of the film, Brad Pitt's character does something remarkable and violent that he's done previously in the movie -- and then says, "I think this just might be my masterpiece." It's easy to think that the director was signaling how he positions this film in the context of his own career. This is Tarantino's best work in more than a decade and a fitting entry into the war film genre. Tarantino adds his typically audacious mix of violence, spark, and wit.

That said, I'm not sure precisely how I'd use it in my "Global Politics Through Film" course. This will take some thought.

Monday night, I finally saw Clint Eastwood's "Gran Torino" (2008). The film is not the actor/director's masterpiece, but it is a solid piece of work well worth watching. Though some of the lines and scenes are clichéd, the movie nonetheless works as an examination of how globalization has local and unexpected consequences. Eastwood's elderly character is disaffected from his own family and his deceased-wife's Catholic faith, but finds renewed life in the Hmong family now living next door to the house he's occupied for decades. The man recognizes that Hmong values are basically his values and his (arguably bigoted) character is sufficiently tolerant to integrate them into his life.

I could see using this film in my course, but I probably will not given the specific narratives I like to cover during the term.

Both films will be eligible for a student review project.

Last night, I viewed "Moon," which is a thoughtful work of science fiction starring Sam Rockwell as an astronaut working for a corporation on the moon. The talking computer, GERTY, provides a nice contrasting character to comparable machines you've seen in other sci-fi flicks. This is not a serious candidate for my film class, but it was entertaining and provocative. Check it out.


Visit this blog's homepage.

Duck days

April 9 at Duck of Minerva, I blogged "Nuclear Arms Control," about Hillary Clinton's visit to Louisville to sell the latest nuclear START agreement to Senator Mitch McConnell -- and the rest of us.

April 7, I posted "New Nuclear Posture," about that Obama administration's Nuclear Posture Review. The U.S. announced that it (mostly) would not use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapons states. Believe it or not, that is actually news.


Visit this blog's homepage.

Trita Parsi campus talk Monday night

The 2010 winner of the Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order, Trita Parsi, will give a talk on April 12 at 7 p.m. in the Chao Auditorium, Ekstrom Library.

Title: "Iran and Israel - the Conflict Defining the Middle East and America's Options."


Update: Parsi will also be speaking Tuesday, April 13, 2010, from Noon to 1:30 pm at the Jewish Community Center, 3600 Dutchmans Lane. It is sponsored by Interfaith Paths to Peace.


Visit this blog's homepage.